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The last century of warming…. GISS SAT England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change.

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Presentation on theme: "The last century of warming…. GISS SAT England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change."— Presentation transcript:

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2 The last century of warming…. GISS SAT England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

3 Recent climate trends…. 1992-2011 ERA-Interim SLP and wind stress trends England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

4 Recent climate trends…. 1992-2011 AVISO sea surface height trends England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

5 Recent climate trends…. 1992-2011 HadISST sea surface temperature trends England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

6 Recent climate trends…. 1992-2011 GISS surface air temperature trends England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

7 Recent Pacific Ocean trends…. England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

8 What do the Pacific wind trends do in models….? OCEAN GCM, SIMPLE ATMOSPHERE England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

9 What do the Pacific wind trends do in models….? OCEAN GCM, SIMPLE ATMOSPHERE England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

10 What do the Pacific wind trends do in models….? OCEAN GCM, SIMPLE ATMOSPHERE England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

11 What do the Pacific wind trends do in models….? SPIN UP OCEAN GCM, SIMPLE ATMOSPHERE Half the hiatus England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

12 What does this mean for climate projections….? England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

13 What does this mean for climate projections….? England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

14 How unusual are the wind trends….? England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

15 Do models capture the magnitude of decadal variability seen in OBS? England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

16 Recent OBS wind trends vs. models England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

17 Conclusions Recent observed trade wind trend unprecedented England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

18 Conclusions Recent observed trade wind trend unprecedented Missing in CMIP models England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

19 Conclusions Recent observed trade wind trend unprecedented Missing in CMIP models Cooling impact can account for the hiatus Ocean heat uptake Teleconnections from cool East Pacific SST Hiatus could persist for much of the present decade Warming out of hiatus likely rapid England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

20 Greg Johnson NOAA / PMEL

21 England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change Role of trade winds in mid-20 th Century hiatus

22 England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

23 England et al. [2014] Nature Climate Change

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