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Development of Cargo Aircraft Market in Russia DENIS ILYIN, Senior Vice-President for Strategy & Commercial Moscow, Russia 18.06.08 next.

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Presentation on theme: "Development of Cargo Aircraft Market in Russia DENIS ILYIN, Senior Vice-President for Strategy & Commercial Moscow, Russia 18.06.08 next."— Presentation transcript:

1 Development of Cargo Aircraft Market in Russia DENIS ILYIN, Senior Vice-President for Strategy & Commercial Moscow, Russia 18.06.08 next

2 World Air Freight Market Will Grow 6.2% Year Through 2025 RTKs, billions 800 600 400 200 HistoryForecast High Base Low 5.3% growth per year 1995200020052010201520202025 Average annual growth 2005-2025 High 7.1% Base 6.2% Low 5.4% nextprevious 1 Source: Boeing Commercial Airplanes, World Air Cargo Forecast

3 Average Growth in % Average World Air Cargo Freight growth, 6.2% Domestic China Intra-Asia Asia-North America Europe-Asia Latin America-North America Latin America-Europe Europe-North America Intra-Europe Europe-Middle East North America Russia Europe-Africa 0%2%4%6%8%10%12% nextprevious 2 Source: Boeing Commercial Airplanes, World Air Cargo Forecast

4 Total volume in 2007г ~ $80 billion 190 billion tons / kilometer 41 mln tons Market Growth Forecast (2020): - On Non ramp Aircraft – 6%-6,2% (according to Boeing, Airbus, IATA) - On Ramp Aircraft – 8%-10% (according to Volga-Dnepr Group’s forecast) Air Cargo Market for ramp aircraft Charter Services Air Cargo Market for non ramp aircraft Scheduled Services 1879 Aircraft ~98,5%$78,8 billion DC-10, MD-11 A-300-330 Ил-96 Ту-204 B-747 479 AC ~1,4% $1 billion Ан-124-100 Ил-76 Ан-12 C-130 28 AC An-124-100 $771 mln per year (2007) ~ 70% market share 311 AC В747F $30 billion per year (2007) ~ 38% market share nextprevious 3

5 Scheduled cargo operations market (2007) $80 billion Ramp aircraft operations market 2007 $1 billion Ukraine and other countries 26% Russian civil aviation 74 % By 2020 Russian transport aviation development strategy specifies: 1.Increase in dominant position of ramp aircraft cargo operations (from 74% up to 90%). Already now Russian cargo air carriers play the role of international military-cargo airlines. With all that US, European and UNO show the growing need in the services of Russian ramp aircraft air carriers. 2.Expansion on the market of general cargo transportation and share growth on this market (from 1% up to 10%). European countries 24% Russian civil aviation 1,4 % other countries 7,6 % USA 31% Asian and Pacific Region countries 1,4 % nextprevious 4

6 Charter Services Scheduled Services Current Ramp Cargo Fleet (150 aircraft) Current Non Ramp Cargo Fleet (21 aircraft)Non Ramp Cargo Fleet Forecast (92 aircraft) An-124 Il-76 An-124 Il-76 В747F ≤10 tons; 3; 14% 10-30 Tons; 5; 24% ≥ 100 tons; 12; 16% 30-100 tons; 1; 16% ≤10tons; 91; 63% 10-30 Tons; 28; 16% ≥ 100 tons; 16; 11% 30-100 tons; 15; 10% ≤10 tons; 28; 21% Medium 10-30 Tons; 12; 9% ≥ 100 tons; 55; 39% 30-100 tons; 41; 31% ≤10 tons; 8; 11% 10-30 Tons; 24; 36% ≥ 100 tons; 20; 27% 30-100 tons; 19; 26% 5 previousnext Source: Volga-Dnepr Group Forecast Ramp Cargo Fleet Forecast (136 aircraft) 212 B 747

7 6 nextprevious Total volume $80 billion Total volume $105 billion Total volume $55 billion Market volume $160 billion Russia 1,3% Other Countries 98,6% Other Countries 92,0% Other Countries 84,0% Other Countries 98,7% Russia 1,4% Russia 8,0% Russia 16,0%

8 7 Europe India Middle East, Africa Singapore Krasnoyarsk Khabarovsk Moscow China St.Petersburg USA India Singapore Krasnoyarsk Khabarovsk China Canada Moscow Moscow – natural geographical hub connecting Europe to Middle East, Indian Subcontinent and South-East Asia Krasnoyarsk – natural geographical hub connecting USA, Europe & Canada to China, Japan and South-East Asia USA Canada nextprevious Europe DC-10, MD-11 B-747, 777

9 previous Moscow Krasnoyarsk 8 KJA UUS MOW LAX MIL LED FRA NRT NGO HKG SIN KUL DEL TLV NYC YYC HOU ORD NBO AMS LHR BJS SHA next B 747-8F

10 Total AircraftAircraft TypeDelivery/Retirement ScheduleCurrent Status 22 x Boeing 747-200 (VP-BIA, BIB)April 2004, July 2005Retired in 2007-2008 31 x Boeing 747-300SF (VP-BIC)October 2005In Service 41 x Boeing 747-200F (VP-BID)June 2006 (NCA)In Service 62 x Boeing 747-200F (VP-BII, BIJ)March 2007 (NCA)In Service 52 x Boeing 747-200F (VP-BIA)September 2007Retired in 2007 6Boeing 747- 400ERF (VP-BIG)October 2007 (Boeing)In Service 8Boeing 747-400ERFFebruary & April 2008 (Boeing)In Service 7Boeing 747-200 (VP-BIB)March 2008Retired in 2008 8-12Boeing 747-82010-2013 (Boeing)On Order nextprevious 9

11 2004 2008 2007 2006 2005 2020 2010-13 Boeing 747-200 nextprevious 10 Boeing 747-200 2 + 1 Boeing 747-200 + 1+ 1 2 x Boeing 747-200 1 x Boeing 747 -400 ERF +3 Boeing 747-400 ERF + 2+ 2 Boeing 747 – 8F + 5+ 5 Boeing 747-8F + 5+ 5 Boeing 747-200 - 1- 1 - 1- 1

12 11 nextprevious Cities with population more than 1mln people Regions of significant economic growth Source: Ministry of Economic of RF Federal State Statistics Service

13 nextprevious 12 Oil & Gas Exploration fields MOSCOW (SVO) YUZHNO- SAKHALINSK (UUS) KRASNOYARSK (KJA) KHABAROVSK (KHV) ST. PETERSBURG (LED) AirBridgeCargo Hubs ABC Schedule Service Air Feeder Service Road Feeder Service Ту-204 B-737, 757, 767 next A320F, A330F

14 While Boeing 747 freighters offer capacity on long haul international routes, regional aircraft will complement transcontinental services with local distribution capabilities. Tupolev 204C has been selected as the middle range aircraft type to serve Russian domestic markets from ABC hubs in Moscow and Krasnoyarsk. In June 2007, two planes of this type have been ordered with AVIASTAR-SP (Ulyanovsk, Russia), and 3 more are in plans until 2010 AircraftAircraft TypeDelivery ScheduleStatus 1-2Tupolev-204C2009 Quarter 1In production 3-5Tupolev-204CUntil 2010On Option nextprevious 13

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