1. Simple Approaches to Data-Poor Stock Assessment Rainer Froese rfroese@ifm-geomar.de March 9, 2011, Troutdale, Oregon

2. Overview Some background – Fecundity – Size matters – Recruitment Options for Management – Length-only – Semelparous species – Revisiting Schaefer – If biomass is known

3. NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FECUNDITY AND ANNUAL REPRODUCTIVE RATE IN BONY FISH Rainer FROESE, Susan LUNA ACTA ICHTHYOLOGICA ET PISCATORIA (2004) 34 (1): 11–20 Maximum annual reproductive rate versus mean (solid dots) and minimum (open dots) annual fecundity. 3

4. Fish and Fisheries, 2004, 5, 86–91 Keep it simple: three indicators to deal with overfishing Rainer Froese 4

5. Reducing catch to F msy is good but insufficient Stock size may increase seven-fold if fish are caught after multiple spawning, at around 2/3 of their maximum length Large stock size means low cost of fishing 5

6. Age-structure of North Sea Cod, with same catch but different minimum size For a given catch, the impact on the stock is least if fish are caught at L opt Current F msy F msy & L opt 6

7. Same catch, better age structure Stock size can increase seven-fold 7

8. The Hockey-Stick (Barrowman & Myers 2000) Assumptions: a)Constant R/S at low S b)Constant R at high S

9. The Smooth Hockey-Stick (Froese 2008) Assumptions: a)Practically constant R at high S b)Gradually increasing R/S at lower S where A = ln R max

10. Parameters and accounted variance not significantly different ModelαlowupR max lowupr2r2 B&H3.672.604.7324.917.336.00.834 Froese3.402.644.1517.413.522.60.843 Ricker3.222.643.8119.816.523.90.846 Example Striped bass Morone saxatilis Extrapolation VERY different

11. Bold line is Smooth Hockey-Stick with n = 414, α = 4.5, Rmax = 0.85 Dotted line the Ricker model with n = 414, α = 3.1, Rmax = 1.4. Data were normalized by dividing both R and S by R max for the respective stock. Example: 12 stocks of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua

12. 12 Number of replacement spawners versus number of parents for 48 Pacific salmon populations. The fitted smooth hockey stick has a slope of 4.2 (3.6 – 5.2).

13. Assesment and Management Options 13

14. If nothing is known about the stock Management: Get an estimate of maximum length (interviews; old photos; FishBase) Get an estimate of length at first maturity (examine specimens; FishBase) Set minimum length in catch and/or start of fishing season such that >90% of the specimens had a chance to reproduce before being caught Give incentives to catch only fish with a length of 2/3 of their maximum length Justification: Overfishing is theoretically impossible if all fish have a chance to reproduce before capture (Myers and Mertz, 1998). Impact of fishing on cohorts is minimized at about 2/3 of maximum length. 14

15. If L ∞ is known Assessment Get length at first capture and mean length in catch Derive reference length where F ~ M from Derive reference length where F msy ~ ½ M from Management Set minimum length in catch to L F~M, if larger than length where 90% are mature, else use that length Set target length in catch to L Fmsy 15

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17. If species die after spawning (salmons, eels, cephalopods) 17

18. If Catch and Effort are Known 18

19. If MSY and B msy are known (Data-rich Management) 19

20. Generic Harvest Control Rules for European Fisheries Rainer Froese, Trevor A. Branch, Alexander Proelß, Martin Quaas, Keith Sainsbury & Christopher Zimmermann Rules for sustainable and profitable fisheries based on 1) economic optimization of fisheries 2) honoring international agreements 3) true implementation of the precautionary principle 4) learning from international experiences 5) ecosystem-approach to fisheries management 6) recognizing the biology of European fish stocks If these rules were applied, catches could increase by 63% 20

21. Harvest Control Rule Schema 21

22. Fisheries in 2007 22

23. North Sea Herring 1960 - 1978 23

24. North Sea-Herring 1979 - 2008 24

25. ICES F-based Mangement 25

26. North Sea Herring Once More F-based Management would not have prevented the collapse of herring. 26

27. Critique of Planned F-based Management F msy is taken as target, not limit, thus violating UNFSA and the precautionary principle Fishing at F msy is less profitable than at F mey Fishing at F msy results in substantially smaller stocks, violating the ecosystem approach Fishing at F msy results in strongly fluctuating catches with high uncertainty for the industry Fishing at F msy provides strong incentives for overcapacity Fishing at TAC = 0.9 MSY solves these problems 27

28. Thank You Rainer Froese IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany rfroese@ifm-geomar.de 28