1. Copyright Notice: @ 2007 by Linda J. Vandergriff All rights reserved. Published 2007 System Engineering in the 21st Century - Implications from Complexity Theory Complex Venture Acquisition Linda J. Vandergriff, D.Sc. The Aerospace Corporation

2. System Engineering in the 21st Century - Vandergriff Copyright Notice: @ 2007 by Linda J. Vandergriff All rights reserved. Published 2007 2 Complex Venture Acquisition Classical System Engineering not adequate [1] Complex SE literature focused on complicated asset and connectivity Need to define a model to inform the Architecting and Systems Engineering Acquisition best practices Not necessary for a solution to be large in scope, complicated, or have a high number of interfaces to exhibit complex behaviors 21st Century solutions deal with behaviors arising from the interdependence of users, technology, and context often referred to “wicked” problems Explore fundamental differences in defining, developing, and implementing complicated systems and complex ventures[2].[2] Builds upon the insights derived from chaos and complexity theories; observations of several acquisitions successes and failures; and my doctoral research on decision support for Agile Enterprises [1][1] Reductionist theories fall short of the real world experience (e.g., neuroscience, meteorology, physics, computer science, evolutionary computation, economics, earthquake prediction, heart cell synchronization). [2][2] A complex venture is an undertaking that uses coherent principles and integrated resources to provide dynamic solutions with the desired behavior and value for one specific project or in a continuing enterprise in its co-evolving context, internal capabilities, and stakeholder interest

3. System Engineering in the 21st Century - Vandergriff Copyright Notice: @ 2007 by Linda J. Vandergriff All rights reserved. Published 2007 3 Complicated Versus Complex The root of complicated means “to fold” Complicated systems can be decomposed and recombined without loss of function Newtonian mechanics and basic SE are based on this concept that the universe, while complicated, can be decomposed and understood as merely the sum of the pieces The root of complex means “to weave” A complex system is woven and if a thread is pulled it unravels A complex system can be composed of simple and/or complicated rules and subsystems A complex system has emergent behavior based upon the interaction and relationships of the parts Rare that parts can be interchanged without changing the nature of the performance in at least a subtle manner Complicated is the opposite of simple Complex is the opposite of independent

4. System Engineering in the 21st Century - Vandergriff Copyright Notice: @ 2007 by Linda J. Vandergriff All rights reserved. Published 2007 4 Each interface separately defined Evolutionary path prohibitive Never gets cheaper Each new system needs all I/Fs Minimal chance that additional system happens to be interoperable Interface Control Documents (ICDs) “Complicated” Common interface standards “Simple” Standard interfaces Defined once Used by all Evolutionary path identified Each system built to the same stds Can evolve in sync if stds evolve Better chance that additional system will be interoperable Both can be complex systems, one is complicated the other simple. Both can be complex systems, one is complicated the other simple. Achieving the Emergent Behavior of Interoperability

5. System Engineering in the 21st Century - Vandergriff Copyright Notice: @ 2007 by Linda J. Vandergriff All rights reserved. Published 2007 5 How are Complexity and Chaos related? Complex Adaptive System (CAS) research has shown system behavior falls into four distinct classes Zones of Chaos or Complexity Behavior Classes Class I – Steady State SE Practices needed Class II – Static Patterns SE Practices needed Class III – Wild Variations (“Chaos”)+ Robustness needed Class IV* – Extended Transients + Agility needed *Actually operates between Class II and Class III Focus is on how to acquire systems in Class IV or “the edge of chaos” Focus is on how to acquire systems in Class IV or “the edge of chaos”

6. System Engineering in the 21st Century - Vandergriff Copyright Notice: @ 2007 by Linda J. Vandergriff All rights reserved. Published 2007 6 Complex System Attributes Interconnectedness with the environment and itself Non-linearity of coupling Emergence of system properties and behaviors Self-organization to adapt to “fit”ness landscape Complex System Definition: The term complex system formally refers to a system of many parts which are coupled in a nonlinear fashion. Natural complex systems are modeled using the mathematical techniques of dynamical systems, which include differential equations, difference equations and maps. Because they are nonlinear, complex systems are more than the sum of their parts because a linear system is subject to the principle of superposition, and hence is literally the sum of its parts, while a nonlinear system is not. (Wikipedia 2006)

7. System Engineering in the 21st Century - Vandergriff Copyright Notice: @ 2007 by Linda J. Vandergriff All rights reserved. Published 2007 7 Complex Venture Insights Leadership, not control, with clear and consistent venture-wide vision using architecture products to communicate and incentivize not document Address rapidly changing context and the co-evolutionary ventures by focusing on capabilities early and delay implementation decisions Institute tiered situationally aware decision-making in both time and place with empowered agents Address all factors contributing to success and link products/services to outcomes/values Assumptions about decomposability, widget capital, and predictability lie at the heart of the problem