1. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan ECO 120 Macroeconomics Week 12 Open Economy & Exchange Rate Lecturer Dr. Rod Duncan

2. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Closed and Open Economies A closed economy is one that does not interact with other economies in the world. There are no exports, no imports, and no capital flows. An open economy is one that interacts freely with other economies around the world.

3. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan An Open Economy An open economy interacts with other countries in two ways. It buys and sells goods and services in world product markets. It buys and sells capital assets in world financial markets. The Australian economy is a medium-sized open economy—it imports and exports relatively large quantities of goods and services.

4. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Exports and Imports Exports are domestically produced goods and services that are sold abroad. Imports are foreign produced goods and services that are sold domestically. Net exports ( NX ) or the trade balance is the value of a nation’s exports minus the value of its imports. NX = X - M

5. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Australian Trade in Goods (1949-1995)

6. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Net Exports A trade surplus is a situation where net exports ( NX ) are positive. Exports > Imports A trade deficit is a situation where net exports ( NX ) are negative. Imports > Exports

7. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Net Exports (1949-1996) In A$ % of GDP

8. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Foreign Trade and Equilibrium GDP Aggregate Expenditure = C + I + G + NX Level of X depends on foreign countries’ income, not domestic income Level of X depends on foreign countries’ income, not domestic income Level of M is dependent on domestic income or GDP. Level of M is dependent on domestic income or GDP.

9. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Factors That Affect Net Exports The tastes of consumers for domestic and foreign goods. The prices of goods at home and abroad. The exchange rates at which people can use domestic currency to buy foreign currencies. The costs of transporting goods from country to country. The policies of the government toward international trade.

10. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Exchange Rate The exchange rate is the rate at which a person can trade the currency of one country for the currency of another. The nominal exchange rate is expressed in two ways. In units of foreign currency per one Australian dollar In units of Australian dollars per one unit of the foreign currency

11. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Exchange Rate At an exchange rate between the US dollar and the Australian dollar is 0.70 US cents to one Australian dollar. One Australian dollar trades for 0.70 of US$. [This is the form we will use.] One US$ trades for 1.43 (1/0.7) of an Australian dollar.

12. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Determination of exchange rates The market price of something is determined in the market. The market price of something is determined in the market. Under the Floating Rate system, price of a currency (its exchange rate) in the international market for currency is determined by its Demand and Supply. Under the Floating Rate system, price of a currency (its exchange rate) in the international market for currency is determined by its Demand and Supply. A$ is a floating currency - floated in December 1983. A$ is a floating currency - floated in December 1983.

13. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Value of A$ (1949-1996) Yen/A$ US$/A$

14. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Determination of exchange rates Demand for A$ (people who want to buy A$): Demand for A$ (people who want to buy A$): By overseas buyers of Australian goods and services (including their tourist visits to Australia) By overseas buyers of Australian goods and services (including their tourist visits to Australia) By overseas investors who want to buy Australian physical and financial assets. By overseas investors who want to buy Australian physical and financial assets.

15. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Determination of exchange rates Supply of A$ (people who want to sell A$): Supply of A$ (people who want to sell A$): By Australian importers (including overseas trips by Australians) By Australian importers (including overseas trips by Australians) By Australian investors who want to buy physical and financial assets overseas. By Australian investors who want to buy physical and financial assets overseas.

16. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Appreciation/Depreciation If a dollar buys more foreign currency, there is an appreciation of the dollar -- say, one A$ buys one US$ instead of 70 US cents at present. If it buys less there is a depreciation of the dollar -- say, one A$ buys 50 US cents instead of 70 US cents at present.

17. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Demand for A$ As exchange rate (US$ per A$) increases (say, from US$ 0.70 to US$ 1), exports become more expensive. Overseas buyers will buy less of Australian goods and services. Demand for A$ falls. (Just opposite when the value of A$ decreases) So, Demand curve for A$ (or any other currency) is downward sloping - as exchange rate increases, demand for the currency falls, and vice versa.

18. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Supply of A$ As exchange rate increases (say, from US$ 0.70 to US$ 1), imports become cheaper. Australians will buy more of foreign (imported) goods and services. Supply of A$ increases. (Just opposite when the value of A$ decreases) So, Supply curve of A$ (or any other currency) is upward sloping - as exchange rate increases, supply of the currency increases, and vice versa.

19. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Determination of exchange rates Exchange rate (cost of 1 A$ in terms of US$) Amount of A$ Demand for A$ Supply of A$

20. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Balance of Payments Reflected in international balance of payments accounts. Records all transactions between the entities in Australia and those in foreign nations Two basic accounts: Current Account Capital Account

21. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Balance of Payments Current account of a country’s international transaction refers to the record of receipts from the sale of goods and services to foreigners (exports), the payments for goods and services bought from foreigners (imports), and also property income (such as interest and profits) and current transfers (such as gifts) received from and paid to foreigner. Capital account is a summary of country’s asset transactions with the rest of the world.

22. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Balance of Payments Current Account Balance (+,-) = Capital Account Balance (+,-) Demand for A$ equals Supply of A$. If we have a current account deficit (we are importing more than we are exporting), then we must also have a capital account deficit (investors overseas are accumulating Australian assets).

23. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan CAD (Current Account Deficit) and Exchange Rate CAD impacts on : Inflow of foreign investment - higher the CAD, higher the surplus in capital account - higher investment in Australia by the foreigners - higher the demand for A$. Outflow of foreign currency - income (interest & profit) on foreign investment goes out of the country- higher the CAD, higher the demand for foreign currency - higher the supply of A$. Exact impact depends on relative strengths of the two opposing forces.

24. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Current Account Deficits (1949-1996) In A$ % of GDP

25. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Is the Current Account Deficit a Problem? Represents a debt we will have to repay in the future. Represents a debt we will have to repay in the future. Just as for a household, the extent of the problem depends on our ability to service the debt- but notice that CAD as a percentage of GDP (ability to service debt) is still low. Just as for a household, the extent of the problem depends on our ability to service the debt- but notice that CAD as a percentage of GDP (ability to service debt) is still low.

26. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Terms of Trade The ratio of average price of goods and services exported by a country to the average price of its imports. If prices of imported goods are rising at a faster rate than the prices of exported goods, then the terms of trade for that economy is considered as deteriorating. The economy is loosing in the process of foreign trade.

27. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Terms of Trade in Australia Australia mainly exports agricultural, primary and mineral products to the rest of the world. Australia mainly exports agricultural, primary and mineral products to the rest of the world. It imports manufacturing goods. It imports manufacturing goods. As a result, it has faced gradual deterioration in terms of trade. As a result, it has faced gradual deterioration in terms of trade.

28. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Terms of Trade (1949-1995)

29. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) The purchasing-power parity theory is the simplest and most widely accepted theory explaining the variation of currency exchange rates. According to the purchasing-power parity theory, a unit of any given currency should be able to buy the same quantity of goods in all countries.

30. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Intuition for PPP In an open economy, I have the choice of buying an orange in Australia or an orange from Indonesia and importing the orange back to Australia. If transport costs are low, the price of traded goods should be the SAME, once we translate into a common currency. This is called the law of one price.

31. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Purchasing-Power Parity Law of one price Law of one price when converted to a common currency value through the exchange rate, the price of identical goods should be the same across countries when converted to a common currency value through the exchange rate, the price of identical goods should be the same across countries P d = E x P o/s, where, P d =domestic price P o/s = foreign price P d = E x P o/s, where, P d =domestic price P o/s = foreign price E = exchange rate E = exchange rate

32. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Problems with Relying on PPP presence of non-traded goods presence of non-traded goods product differentiation product differentiation differences in consumption patterns and preferences across countries differences in consumption patterns and preferences across countries transportation costs transportation costs tariffs and other forms of industry assistance distort relative prices between countries tariffs and other forms of industry assistance distort relative prices between countries

33. 11/2/04Dr. PK Basu and Dr. Rod Duncan Macroeconomics - Jackson Chapters : 4, 7 & 18 References