1. April 10, 20081 Simplifying solar harvesting model- development in situated agents using pre-deployment learning and information sharing Huzaifa Zafar & Dan Corkill Computer Science Department University of Massachusetts, Amherst

2. Introduction

3. Problem Definition: How much energy is this agent going to be able to harvest? Clouds Shading and tilting How can an agent use its neighboring agents in developing its local models? Two agents see the same (if not very close) cloud attenuation Two agents have different shade attenuation at any given time (unless in the deserts of dubai) {30%,20%} {30%,40%} {30%,0%}

4. Related Work Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Extends traditional reinforcement learning to multiple agents Each agent learns local policies given policies of neighboring agents Requires a large observation set and time to converge to optimal policies. Multi-Agent Inductive Learning Learning models by interacting with other agents in the network Each agent shares information with other agents in the network in order to better learn local models. Again, requires a large observation set and time to converge to usable models

5. Observations Agent performance is reduced while models are learned Is it possible to reduce the time taken in developing local models once an agent has been deployed? How can an agent better take advantage of the observations of its neighboring agents in developing its local models?

6. PLASMA (Pre-deployment Learning And Situated Model-development in Agents) Two phase strategy Phase 1: A pre-deployment learning phase Define and develop a parameterized model of the environment The parameters of the model - environmental effects Phase 2: Post-deployment model-completion phase Complete the local parameterized model by sharing information among agents

7. Advantages of the approach Transfer a majority of the, time consuming, learning part to pre-deployment phase Dramatic reduction in the time and observations required to complete models post deployment If information is shared, requires two days of observations to learn complete models

8. Input: Current time, location (GPS) Energy Harvested depends on: The maximum energy provided no attenuation Cloud attenuation Shade attenuation Tilt of the solar panel Assume geographical location and angle of solar panel to be constant for the lifetime of the agent Combine them into site attenuation Solar Harvesting Model

9. Observations Two agents have the same (or very close) cloud attenuation at any time of the day Very small chance of two agents having the exact the same shade attenuation at any given time (unless you are in the deserts of Dubai) Maximum energy does not depend on the exact location of the agent (approximate location is enough) The relationship between cloud attenuation and energy harvested does not depend on the environment of the agent Same with site attenuation

10. PLASMA: Pre-deployment learning phase Learn the maximum observable energy and the relation between attenuations and observed energy Model for the maximum observable energy - a.sin(time) Model for the relation between attenuations and observed energy - a.log -1 (C(t))

11. PLASMA: Post-deployment model completion Agent 1, Day 2 we have the following equations: Equations from Day 1 400 = 1000 * (1 - (f(C(t1)) + k(S(t1,e1))) 600 = 1000 * (1 - (f(C(t1)) + k(S(t1,e2))) Equations from Day 2 450 = 1000 * (1 - (f(C(t2)) + k(S(t2,e1))) 670 = 1000 * (1 - (f(C(t2)) + k(S(t2,e2))) {??,??} {30%,20%} {??,??} {30%,40%} {??,??} {30%,0%}

12. PLASMA: Diversity - The deserts of Dubai phenomena Cloud attenuations remains exactly the same for consecutive days (in general low likelihood) Site attenuation remains exactly the same across agents (generally low likelihood in most areas) Take away - diversity is important. Probability of there being no diversity is very very low

13. PLASMA: The know-it-all agent Converged agent shares values with all neighboring agents Neighboring agents can use meaningful values to converge themselves Take away - If one agent converges, all agents will converge {30%,20%} {30%,40%} {30%,0%}

14. Experiment - I Evaluate PLASMA in a simulated environment 2 Agents, both learning their respective local models. For one of the agents : Shaded for 4 hours Result: PLASMA is able to accurately predict the solar radiation collected for day 3

15. Experiment II - Load Balancing Benefits of PLASMA in energy dependent load balancing (Kansal et.al.) Each agent can undertake certain task load depending on available energy Agents make load balancing decisions depending on predicted energy levels for the near future 10 Agents; 20 Days; Mean Cloud Attenuation is 20%

16. Experiment II - Load Balancing Overall utility given no storage capacity and infinite energy storage capacity Min utility = 2; Max utility = 5 -1 utility for unaccomplished task Result: Can maximize utility with and without residual energy storage (compared with Kansal et.al.)

17. Conclusions Developed a two phase model-development strategy called PLASMA Minimize the time and number of observations required in developing models post-deployment by transferring all the learning to the pre- deployment phase Its all about the diversity (in agent observations) Agents converge On the first day if there exists a converged agent that shares meaningful observations On the second day if there exists an agent that shares two meaningful observations

18. April 10, 200818 Questions??