1. Gray Wolf Range Analysis: Michigan and Wisconsin Masters Project Presentation November 8, 2002 Damon Hearne, Karen Lewis, Marisa Martin, Beth Mitton, Carly Rocklen

2. Background Gray wolf federally listed as Endangered in 1974 Down-listing to Threatened underway Complete delisting imminent Client: National Wildlife Federation Great Lakes Field Office, Ann Arbor Advisors: Steve Yaffee and Bobbi Low Is additional long-term wolf range protection necessary if permanent recovery is to be successful?

3. Historic 1974 Current Wolves are top carnivores without specific habitat requirements.

4. Population Status Michigan: ~280/200 (5 years) Wisconsin: ~300/250 (1 year)

5. Range: Regionally specific areas of land that can function as gray wolf territory Should not be confused with distribution: Applied Definitions

6. Spatial Analysis Model Project Overview Sufficient range conserved Insufficient range conserved Question: How can range for a long-term viable wolf population be ensured? Recommendations Future studies show insufficient range Is additional long-term wolf range protection necessary if permanent recovery is to be successful?

7. Spatial Analysis Model Components Goal: To predict future wolf range and population size. Establish Factors Affecting Conversion of range (FACs) Use FACs to predict Probability Of Conversion (POC) Determine number of wolf packs supported Suitability filter Phase A Phase B

8. Primary Factors Affecting Conversion (FAC) Stability Conversion Rate in Region Nat Park =-2 Private = 2 Low = - 2 High = 2 Zoned for Development No = - 2 Yes = 2 Physiography conducive to conversion No = - 2 Yes = 2 Urban pixel filter Probability of Conversion (POC) ( -2, -1, 0, 1, 2 ) Spatial Analysis Phase A Weighting Agriculture Revert =-2 Develop = 2

9. Ownership Legal protection Federal—Forest Legacy Program State—conservation easements; forest tax incentives Factor Affecting Conversion: Stability as Undeveloped

10. Land Use Change Analysis LUDA 1980 NLCD 1992 Regional Planner Predictions Population Change Development Attractors Urban Center Lake Highway/major roads Factor Affecting Conversion: Growth Rate in Region

11. Factor Affecting Conversion: Agricultural Reversion Occurs at varying rates depending on economic status and primary land use of county Land use change Difficult to build into current model because it is reverse conversion

12. Home rule—land use planning at the lowest level of government in Wisconsin and Michigan Town comprehensive plans— Smart Growth (Wisconsin) Buildout analysis Factor Affecting Conversion: Zoning

13. Factor Affecting Conversion: Physiography Conducive to Conversion Presence of wetland Federal, state and local protection Wetlands as building sites Soils – percolation test

14. Overlay FAC Layers Sum values across layers using weighting and BOOLEAN operations Each pixel has Probability of Conversion # Spatial Analysis Phase B

15. County- wide zoning = # Federal Lands = # High conversion rate = # Low POC High POC Medium POC Spatial Analysis

16. Spatial Analysis - Suitability Filter Suitable range area # potential territories supported in future Viability proxies: Road Density and others Results from POC phase High POC filter

17. Road Density Proxy for wolf-human interactions Frequency of interactions Outcome of interactions Used to determine areas suitable for wolves (~ <.5km/km 2 ) Improved human attitudes towards wolves may allow survival in areas of higher road density

18. Spatial Analysis - Suitability Filter Suitable range area # potential territories supported in future Viability proxies: Road Density and others Results from POC phase High POC filter

19. Number of potential territories (= packs) supported by Suitable Range Area Number of Wolves Supported by Suitable Range Area Determine average territory size given prey density Number of wolves supported by Suitable Range Area Viable Population YesNo

20. Less Pressure Less Conversion of Land More Pressure More Conversion of Land Secondary Drivers Economic Pressures -Prey Base -Human attitudes/road density Suitability

21. Multiple Scenarios of Model Establish Factors Affecting Conversion of range (FACs) POC Assigned # Wolves Suitability filter POC Assigned Suitability filter POC Assigned Suitability filter Secondary Drivers of Conversion  Multiple scenarios # Wolves

22. Spatial Analysis Model Sufficient range conserved for long term wolf pop Insufficient range conserved for long term wolf pop Question: How can range for a viable wolf population be ensured? Recommendations Future studies show insufficient range Project Overview

23. Legal –ESA litigation –State statutes Policy –Access of federal, state and county lands –Zoning changes –Forest Legacy and Smart Growth in Michigan Recommendations – Legal and Policy Legal and policy avenues may lead to protection of wolves and wolf habitat.

24. Recommendations – Education Barriers to information distribution Education programs Target audiences Public education regarding wolves leads to greater tolerance of wolves, and thus to higher cultural carrying capacities for the land.

25. Recommendations – Land Conservation Type & quantity of land to conserve Tools for protection Integration of land conservation and land use planning Major players/stakeholders Conserved undeveloped lands provide areas of relatively low probability of wolf-human conflict.

26. Spatial Analysis Model Sufficient range conserved Insufficient range conserved Question: How can range for a viable wolf population be ensured? Recommendations Future studies show insufficient range Project Overview

27. Thank you very much

28. PRELIMINARY MAP