1. Understanding elite commitment to social protection: Rwanda’s VUP Tom Lavers, ILO 10 th July 2015 1

2. An adapted political settlements approach 2

3. Vision 2020 Umurenge Programme (VUP) Targeted programme to address poverty: Public works (2008) Direct support (2009) Financial services (2010) Progress by 2014: 168 of 416 sectors DS expected to reach all sectors by 2015/16 2/3 government financed, 1/3 donors 3

4. Rwanda’s dominant party political settlement RPF military victory in 1994. Political settlement consolidated around 2000. No strong elite opposition Relatively centralised power and cohesive coalition Strong top-down control mechanisms Key ideas: Moving beyond ethnicity, promoting national unity Rapid, inclusive socioeconomic progress is the only means of overcoming past divisions, giving everyone a stake in country 4

5. The VUP within the distributional regime PRSP (2003-05) Reasonable growth: 6.4% per annum 2001/02 – 2005/06 But rising inequality (0.51 Gini), low rate of poverty reduction (3.5%), high regional inequalities Identified as priority in 2007 leadership retreat EDPRS 1 (2008-13) Vision 2020 Umurenge Programme (VUP) as one of three flagship programmes Aims to end extreme poverty by 2020 5

6. Policy ‘bricolage’ Policy coalition closely aligned with PS 2007 study tour of Ethiopia’s PSNP Public works, direct support, credit But integrated with existing government initiatives: PDL-HIMO – labour-intensive infrastructure development Ubudehe – social mapping Decentralisation – implemented by umurenge 6

7. Conclusions Elite commitment in search of a policy Top-down, elite driven response to threat to political settlement No evidence of bottom-up pressures Framing is key – VUP and the rise of social protection Policy translation, not diffusion 7

8. Policy coalition aligned with political settlement President Kagame MINALOC Minister Protais Musoni (MINALOC) MINECOFIN Minister James Musoni Economic adviser Donors World Bank DFID 8

9. Research design CountrySocial assistanceHealth insurance EthiopiaProductive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) Pilot Community-Based Health Insurance KenyaCash transfer schemes (OVC, elderly, disabled) Proposed Social Health Insurance Scheme RwandaVision 2020 Umurenge (VUP) Mutuelles de Santé UgandaSocial Assistance Grants for Empowerment (SAGE) Proposed National Health Insurance Scheme ZambiaPublic Welfare Assistance Scheme (PWAS), Social Cash Transfers Proposed Universal Health Insurance 9

10. Implementation challenges Is social protection really the priority? Low labour intensity of public works ~50% Infrastructure development dominates local government incentives Targeting problems in Ubudehe No correlation between ubudehe and quantitative surveys (Sabates-Wheeler et al, 2015) New approach currently being rolled out 10