1. NOAA/NCEP Space Weather Prediction Center Space Weather Prediction Testbed: Transitioning Satellite Data to Operations
Rodney Viereck
Director, Space Weather Prediction Testbed
Presentation to the Satellite Science Meeting
24 February, 2015
Outline:
SWPC and SWPT
Models and Products
IDEA
GOLD

2. Space Weather Prediction Center
Operations –
Space Weather Forecast Office
R & D –
Space Weather Prediction Testbed
Transitioning models into operations
Research-to-Operations
Applied Research
Model Development
Model Test/Evaluation
Model Transition
Operations Support
Operations-to-Research
Customer Requirements
Observation Requirements
Research Requirements
Putting out daily forecast since 1965.
Specifications; Current conditions
Forecast; Conditions tomorrow
Watches; Conditions are favorable for storm
Warnings; Storm is imminent with high probability
Alerts; observed conditions meeting or exceeding storm thresholds
24 February 2015

3. Modeling at NOAA – A Sun to Earth Modeling
Partnerships with the Space Weather Research Community
Sun:
WSA Operational
Solar Wind:
Enlil Operational
Aurora:
OVATION Operational
Magnetosphere:
U. Michigan SWMF Operational in 2016
Ionosphere:
IPE Operational in 2017
Thermosphere:
WAM Operational in 2017
Ground:
E-Field Operational in 2016
Note: a vast majority of customers are concerned only about the near-Earth ionosphere
24 February 2015

4. Primary Space Weather Satellites
White: Currently Operating
Red: Future Missions
STEREO
(Ahead)
SOHO (NASA/ESA)
Solar EUV Images
Solar Corona (CMEs)
ACE (NASA)
Solar wind composition, speed, and direction
Magnetic field strength and direction
GOES (NOAA)
Energetic Particles
Magnetic Field
Solar X-ray Flux
Solar X-Ray Images
SOHO
ACE
DSCOVR
COSMIC II (Taiwan/NOAA)
Ionospheric Electron Density Profiles
Ionospheric Scintillation L1
DSCOVR (NOAA/NASA/DOD)
Solar wind composition, speed, and direction
Magnetic field strength and direction
GOES
SDO
SDO (NASA)
Solar EUV Images
Solar Magnetograms
Solar EUV spectra
POES
METOP
COSMIC II
STEREO (NASA)
CME Direction and Shape
Solar wind composition, speed, and direction
Magnetic field strength and direction
POES (NOAA)
METOP (EUMETSAT)
High Energy Particles
Total Energy Deposition
Solar UV Flux
STEREO
(Behind)
24 February 2015

5. Relativistic Electron Forecast Model
Current SWPC Products
Synoptic Drawings
Solar X-ray Flux
US-TEC
Relativistic Electron Forecast Model
WSA-Enlil
HF Com Absorption
CME Analysis Tool
WSA
Aurora Forecast Model
- 30 Minute Forecast
Wing Kp Forecast
Satellite Environment Model
24 February 2015

6. Models Under Development
Ionosphere/Plasmasphere/
Electrodynamics Model
Global TEC Assimilative Model
Solar Flare Forecast
Whole Atmosphere Model
Far-side Analysis
ROTI GPS Product
Geospace Model
Space weather is caused by a series of interconnected events, beginning at the Sun and ending in the near-Earth space environment. Our ability to predict conditions and events in space depends on our understanding of these connections, and more importantly, our ability to predict details.
More accurate products with improved lead time requires modeling multiple domains of the Sun-Earth system and understanding the complex couplings between the components of the system.
We have embarked on an important initiative to introduce into the operational environment, a modeling framework that captures critical domains of the Sun-Earth system, beginning on the Sun and ending at the Earth’s surface. Using the Enlil model we will understand the structure of the solar wind as it propagates from the Sun to Earth; the geospace Space Weather Modeling Framework will help us understand the geomagnetic response to the changes in the solar wind structure, and provide regional predictions of the rapid time rate of change of the Earth’s magnetic field; the Whole Atmosphere Model will help us understand critical details in the mesosphere, the exosphere, and in particular the ionosphere, helping us to understand the complex and dynamical links between the lower atmosphere and the upper atmosphere; and through our new understanding of ground conductivity across North America, we will characterize and predict the regional electric field and the associated currents that can cause havoc to the electric power grid.
Solar EUV Irradiance Model
Specification
Forecast
Aurora Forecast Model
- 3-Day Forecast
Electric Field Model
24 February 2015

7. Models Under Development Integrated Dynamics in Earth’s Atmosphere
IDEA
Integrated Dynamics in Earth’s Atmosphere
Ionosphere/Plasmasphere/
Electrodynamics Model
Global TEC Assimilative Model
Solar Flare Forecast
Whole Atmosphere Model
Far-side Analysis
ROTI GPS Product
Geospace Model
Space weather is caused by a series of interconnected events, beginning at the Sun and ending in the near-Earth space environment. Our ability to predict conditions and events in space depends on our understanding of these connections, and more importantly, our ability to predict details.
More accurate products with improved lead time requires modeling multiple domains of the Sun-Earth system and understanding the complex couplings between the components of the system.
We have embarked on an important initiative to introduce into the operational environment, a modeling framework that captures critical domains of the Sun-Earth system, beginning on the Sun and ending at the Earth’s surface. Using the Enlil model we will understand the structure of the solar wind as it propagates from the Sun to Earth; the geospace Space Weather Modeling Framework will help us understand the geomagnetic response to the changes in the solar wind structure, and provide regional predictions of the rapid time rate of change of the Earth’s magnetic field; the Whole Atmosphere Model will help us understand critical details in the mesosphere, the exosphere, and in particular the ionosphere, helping us to understand the complex and dynamical links between the lower atmosphere and the upper atmosphere; and through our new understanding of ground conductivity across North America, we will characterize and predict the regional electric field and the associated currents that can cause havoc to the electric power grid.
Solar EUV Irradiance Model
Specification
Forecast
Aurora Forecast Model
- 3-Day Forecast
Electric Field Model
24 February 2015

8. With and Without Lower Atmosphere:
Typical iono-thermosphere model:
Driven by Solar EUV and Geomagnetic Storms.
Global maps show little fine structure
Ionosphere-thermosphere model coupled to the lower atmosphere: Global maps show structure relevant to
GPS accuracy and availability
HF Comm.
The temperature structure from a stand-alone thermosphere ionosphere plasmasphere model (e.g., CTIPe) is similar to the MSIS empirical model. The Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) drives variability from the chaotic lower atmosphere which introduces a whole spectrum of variability.
24 February 2015

9. IDEA (Integrated Dynamics in Earth’s Atmosphere)
Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM = Extended GFS)
Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (IPE)
Integrated Dynamics in Earth’s Atmosphere (IDEA = WAM+IPE)
Specification and Multi-day forecasts for
GPS/GNSS Navigation
HF radio communication
Satellite communication
Ionosphere Model
WAM
Neutral Atmosphere
0 – 600 km
GFS 0 – 60 km
Whole Atmosphere Model
Thermosphere
Mesosphere
Stratosphere
Troposphere
24 February 2015

10. IDEA ionospheric forecast
Daytime ExB vertical drift at Jicamarca.
A precursor to ionospheric scintillation which blocks GPS
Observed
Forecast with IDEA
Observed Day Forecast with IDEA
Total Electron Content.
Directly related to GPS Error
24 February 2015

11. 2009 Sudden Strat. Warm Event: WAM vs GFS Forecast
Raising the top of the GFS model improves forecast lead time
WAM forecasts the Strat-Warm 2 days before GFS
January 13 Forecast
January 15 Forecast
The full impact of WAM on tropospheric forecasts needs to be evaluated
24 February 2015

12. IDEA Task List Complete the coupling of WAM to IPE
Improve WAM (and GFS)
Improve stratospheric ozone and water vapor chemistry
Improve gravity wave parameterization to include non-orographic gravity waves
Test higher resolution
Implement “Deep Atmosphere” gridding
Non-hydrostatic core
Expand data and data assimilation up to 100 km
Develop data and data assimilation for km
24 February 2015

13. WAM – IPE Data List Stratosphere and Mesosphere
Extend analysis of SSMIS to ~ km altitude for temperature.
Extend use of AIRS, IASI, CRIS, AMSUA for temperature.
MLS for ozone and temperature to 85 km
Thermosphere and Ionosphere
Ionospheric radio occultation e.g., COSMIC-II
Line of site Total Electron Content, Scintillation Indices (
Accelerometer data for neutral density e.g., GOCE, GRACE, SWARM
Ground-based dual frequency GPS receivers
Global network of Ionosondes/Dynasondes
Incoherent Scatter Radars (MH, Arecibo, Jicamarca, AMISR, etc.)
Solar flux, GOES-EUV, NASA SDO
Solar Wind: ACE/DSCOVR
Missing Data: High spatial and temporal resolution global coverage of…
Neutral Temperature
Neutral Densities
Electron Densities
24 February 2015

14. Capturing Global Phenomena
Ionospheric Total Electron Content Observation
FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC:
Accumulation of a months worth of data taken between 20:00 and 22:00 local time
TIMED GUVI (similar to DMSP SSUSI):
6 orbits of data
Capturing the spatial and temporal variations in the ionosphere is very difficult from LEO orbit.
24 February 2015

15. 4/17/2017
Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) NASA Instrument of Opportunity
Instrument Summary
Mass
34 kg
Power
61 W
Size
42×42×70 cm
Observations:
Hemispheric maps of…
Neutral temperature
O/N2 ratio (composition)
Electron density
Limb scans of temperature
Imaging Spectrograph:
Two independent, identical channels
Wavelength range: 132 – 160 nm
Target Launch: October 2017
Hosted Payload on geostationary commercial satellite
Florida Space Institute (FSI) University of Central Florida
PI: Richard Eastes
Project Coordinator: Andrey Krywonos
Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP)
University of Colorado
Deputy PI: William McClintock
Project Manager: Mark Lankton
NOAA SWPC
Collaborator: Mihail Codrescu
155 nm?
24 February 2015

16. Data Assimilation Challenge
The Ionosphere-Thermosphere system is a strongly driven system
Order of magnitude electron density changes…
Driven by order of magnitude changes in solar EUV and Geomagnetic activity.
Occur on timescales of minutes.
Data assimilation is challenging
Adjusting ionospheric conditions to match observations does not work. The ionosphere returns to its original state in the next few time steps.
Not sure which DA scheme is best
Extended GSI/hybrid (3D EnVar)
Extended 4D hybrid (4D EnVar)
Separate Iono-Thermo ensemble Kalman Filter
Assimilate Data
24 February 2015

17. Summary
The Space Weather Prediction Testbed provides new models and products to the Forecast Center and to Customers
Nearly every space weather model/product depends on real-time satellite data
IDEA: The coupled Whole Atmosphere Model and Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics Model represents a significant advance in space weather modeling
Need to expand existing data and data assimilation in the km region
Need new data and data assimilation techniques in the 200 – 600 km region.
The GOLD mission will provide new data critical for space weather modeling
Global (hemispheric) continuous real-time data
Both ionosphere and neutral atmosphere data
24 February 2015