1. W4404: Regional climate and climate impacts A discussion centered on the US National Climate Assessment 4 March 2015

2. Outline  Introduction to the National Climate Assessment and other US Govt efforts in “climate services” (NOAA), [lots of web portals, online tools…]  Your reading and discussion of regional chapters of the NCA  A little science [dynamics of climate change in the American Southwest – Seager et al. 2007; uncertainty in projected 50-year temperature trends over North America – Deser et al. 2012]  A final word from America’s Climate Choices – a report of the National Academies EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

3. Outline  Introduction to the National Climate Assessment and other US Govt efforts in “climate services” (NOAA), [lots of web portals, online tools…]  Your reading and discussion of regional chapters of the NCA  A little science [dynamics of climate change in the American Southwest – Seager et al. 2007; uncertainty in projected 50-year temperature trends over North America – Deser et al. 2012]  A final word from America’s Climate Choices – a report of the National Academies EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

4. US Global Change Research Program integrates findings about climate, impacts, adaptation into a National Climate Assessment which by law has to be prepared and provided to President and Congress every 4 years. US Departments of: Commerce, Defense, Energy, Interior, State, Transportation, Health and Human Services, Agriculture US Government Agencies: NASA, NSF, USAID, EPA + Smithsonian Institution are all contributors to the NCA. http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/nca-overview EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

5. “National climate assessments act as status reports about climate change science and impacts. They are based on observations made across the country and compare these observations to predictions from climate system models. The NCA aims to incorporate advances in the understanding of climate science into larger social, ecological, and policy systems, and with this provide integrated analyses of impacts and vulnerability.” http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/nca-overview EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

6. The IPCC Working Group I (WG I) assesses the physical scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change. [… changes in emissions; observed and projected changes in climate, causes and attribution of climate change…] The IPCC Working Group II (WG II) assesses the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of climate change, and options for adapting to it. The IPCC Working Group III (WG III) assesses options for mitigating climate change through limiting or preventing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing activities that remove them from the atmosphere. http://www.ipcc.ch/working_groups/working_groups.shtml EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

7. Goals of the NCA “The NCA will help evaluate the effectiveness of our mitigation and adaptation activities and identify economic opportunities that arise as the climate changes. It will also serve to integrate scientific information from multiple sources and highlight key findings and significant gaps in our knowledge.” http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/nca-overview EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

8. NCA – climate change impacts and regions Our changing climate Sectors Regions Response strategies http://www.globalchange.gov/explore http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

9. Table of contents (p.1/2) Introduction: Letter to the American People 1. Executive Summary 2. Our Changing Climate Introduction to Sectors 3. Water Resources 4. Energy Supply and Use 5. Transportation 6. Agriculture 7. Forestry 8. Ecosystems, Biodiversity, and Ecosystem Services 9. Human Health 10. Water, Energy, and Land Use 11. Urban Systems, Infrastructure, and Vulnerability 12. Impacts of Climate Change on Tribal, Indigenous, and Native Lands and Resources 13. Land Use and Land Cover Change 14. Rural Communities 15. Interactions of Climate Change and Biogeochemical Cycles “physical climate basis” sectoral approach EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

10. Table of contents (p.2/2) Introduction to Regions 16. Northeast 17. Southeast and Caribbean 18. Midwest 19. Great Plains 20. Southwest20. Southwest* 21. Northwest 22. Alaska and the Arctic 23. Hawaii and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands 24. Oceans and Marine Resources 25. Coastal Zone Development and Ecosystems Introduction to Response Strategies 26. Decision Support: Supporting Policy, Planning, and Resource Management Decisions in a Climate Change Context 27. Mitigation 28. Adaptation 29. Research Agenda for Climate Change Science 30. The NCA Long-Term Process: Vision and Future Development Appendix I: NCA Climate Science - Addressing Commonly Asked Questions from A to Z Appendix II: The Science of Climate Change regional approach EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

11. NCA, Ch.2 – Our changing climate anyone familiar w/ this feature? EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015 the “warming hole” – see Meehl, Arblaster and Branstator 2012, in J Climate

12. NCA, Ch.2 – Our changing climate EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

13. NCA, Ch.2 – Our changing climate EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

14. NCA, Ch.2 – Our changing climate EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

15. NCA, Ch.2 – Our changing climate many more analyses/maps, on: Flooding magnitude, drought extent Hurricane frequency and intensity Arctic sea ice extent Sea level rise … EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

16. Outline  Introduction to the National Climate Assessment and other US Govt efforts in “climate services” (NOAA), [lots of web portals, online tools…]  Your reading and discussion of regional chapters of the NCA  A little science [dynamics of climate change in the American Southwest – Seager et al. 2007; uncertainty in projected 50-year temperature trends over North America – Deser et al. 2012]  A final word from America’s Climate Choices – a report of the National Academies EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

17. NCA – climate change impacts and regions EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

18. The National Climate Assessment http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report For your region, jot down:  The most significant exposure, i.e. current and projected climatic impact  Exacerbating factors, i.e. projected increases in exposure, current/future sensitivity  Primary economic sector affected  Adaptation strategies, including possible gains from CC  Efforts to tackle mitigation EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

19. Some common threads:  Attention to current regional “climate problems”, recent anomalies  Attribution of recent trends is explicit  Concern about US vulnerability is comparable to that of many developing countries  Disconnect with CC policy/political discourse in Washington, US position in the global arena (?)  … EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

20. NOAA’s goals: [a national climate service?] Climate adaptation and mitigation Weather-ready nation Healthy oceans Resilient coastal communities and economies http://www.ppi.noaa.gov/goals/ Also see: http://www.climate.gov/ EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

21. NOAA’s goals: Climate adaptation and mitigation Objective: Improved scientific understanding of the changing climate system and its impacts Objective: Assessments of current and future states of the climate system that identify potential impacts and inform science, service, and stewardship decisions Objective: Mitigation and adaptation efforts supported by sustained, reliable, and timely climate services Objective: A climate-literate public that understands its vulnerabilities to a changing climate and makes informed decisions http://www.ppi.noaa.gov/goals/ Also see: http://www.climate.gov/ EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

22. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2014/13 NOAA/Monitoring/Observations EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

24. NOAA/Adaptation Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program http://cpo.noaa.gov/ClimatePrograms/ClimateandSocietalInteractions/ RISAProgram.aspx EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

25. Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast >> Malgosia Madajewicz – guest lecture next week Monday [consider this to be the exposure layer of vulnerability] http://www.ccrun.org/

26. … Recall the US CO 2 emissions “bubble” from last time [slide #9] This is its evolution since 1990 http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/pdfs/climateindicators-full-2014.pdf www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo >> annual energy outlook EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

27. U.S. emissions per capita and per dollar of GDP >> not only an increase in efficiency http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/pdfs/climateindicators-full-2014.pdf EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015 What changes to the economy may account for this drop?

28. David Owen Green Manhattan The New Yorker 2004 EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

29. Outline  Introduction to the National Climate Assessment and other US Govt efforts in “climate services” (NOAA), [lots of web portals, online tools…]  Your reading and discussion of regional chapters of the NCA  A little science [dynamics of climate change in the American Southwest – Seager et al. 2007; uncertainty in projected 50-year temperature trends over North America – Deser et al. 2012]  A final word from America’s Climate Choices – a report of the National Academies EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

30. Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in Southwestern North America Seager, R., et al. 2007. Originally published in Science Express on 5 April 2007 Science, vol. 316 no. 5828 pp. 1181-1184. doi: 10.1126/science.1139601 EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

31. A mechanisms-based approach to detecting recent anthropogenic hydro-climate change Seager and Naik 2012, in J Climate Also recall Hall 2014, in Science >> March 30 lecture, on precipitation in climate change EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

32. Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in Southwestern North America (i)a contribution from the change in mean circulation [dynamics] (ii) a contribution from the change in mean humidity [thermodynamic] (iii) a contribution from eddies Seager et al. 2007, in Science News items at www.ldeo.columbia.edu

33. Projecting North American climate over the next 50 years: uncertainty due to internal variability Linear trends 2010-2060 for single simulations in a large ensemble Deser et al. 2014, in J. Climate EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

34. single run with least most warming Runs with contrasted trends in SLP positive negative Recall that the mid-latitude winter is characterized by: strong internal variability [low predictability] EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

35. Outline  Introduction to the National Climate Assessment and other US Govt efforts in “climate services” (NOAA), [lots of web portals, online tools…]  Your reading and discussion of regional chapters of the NCA  A little science [dynamics of climate change in the American Southwest – Seager et al. 2007; uncertainty in projected 50-year temperature trends over North America – Deser et al. 2012]  A final word from America’s Climate Choices – a report of the National Academies EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

36. America’s Climate Choices (2011) -- a report of the National Academies The United States lacks an overarching national strategy to respond to climate change Climate change poses significant risks for a wide range of human and natural systems The climate system is highly complex, as are the human institutions that are affected by and that must respond to climate change. Iterative risk management is a flexible and powerful approach for addressing the complex challenges of climate change. EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

37. List of additional resources US Global Change Research Program http://www.globalchange.gov/ National Climate Assessment http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/ http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/indicators National Academies: America’s Climate Choices http://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/sample-page/panel-reports/ americas-climate-choices-final-report/ www.climate.gov http://www.climate.gov/decision-support http://www.climate.gov/decision-support/department/decision-support-tools http://www.georgetownclimate.org/adaptation/state-and-local-plans Energy Information Administration http://www.eia.gov/state/maps.cfm EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015