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©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com.

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Presentation on theme: "©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com."— Presentation transcript:

1 ©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com

2 US Lodging Real Estate Cycle Early Operating Recovery Early Transaction Recovery Main Street Debt Availability Full Operating Recovery Conversions/Renovations 10111213141516171819 New Project Announcements Early Wall St. Activity Peak Transaction Activity Peak New Hotel Openings Peak Earnings Full Wall St. Participation Cycle Peak Lending Development Earnings Transactions X

3 ©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com Rooms (000s) Projs 2,7533,020 373 335 341 383 421 3,1222,7573,311 Under Construction Starts in Next 12 Mos Early Planning Forecast 460 535 Prior Peak 2Q08: 785K Rooms, 5,883 Projects US Construction Pipeline by Projects and Rooms 455

4 ©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com At 2Q 2014 970 Projs 126,380 Rms US Under Construction Trends by Projects: Quarter over Quarter

5 ©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com US Construction Start Trends by Projects: Quarter over Quarter At 2Q 2014 259 Projs 32,515 Rms

6 ©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com At 2Q 2014 396 Projs 49,490 Rms US New Project Announcement Trends by Projects: Quarter over Quarter

7 ©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com At 2Q 2014 913 Projs 159,574 Rms US Announced Conversion & Renovation Trends by Projects: Quarter over Quarter

8 ©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com US Construction Pipeline by Project Stage: Quarter over Quarter Q4 131Q 142Q 14 Proj Rms Proj Rms Proj Rms Under Construction 793101,735 885114,337 970126,380 Starts Next 12 Month 1,156141,1401,327161,7481,354161,204 Early Planning 1,071140,0831,014131,150 987133,803 Total Pipeline 3,020382,9583,226407,2353,311421,387

9 ©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com ProjsRooms 3110,195 13328,824 793104,543 1,205116,720 32924,274 927,565 4415,349 684113,917 Total 3,311421,387 US Construction Pipeline by Chain Scale: with an Unbranded Breakout

10 ©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com ProjsRooms 8420,374 18742,237 1,048146,732 1,386146,036 44039,924 12210,735 4415,349 Included Total 3,311421,387 US Construction Pipeline by Chain Scale: with Unbranded Included

11 ©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com * = Pipeline of rooms as a percentage of current Census Projs Rms * New York17730,622 28.5 Houston11513,306 18.3 Washington DC 8113,298 12.2 Los Angeles 5811,642 12.0 Miami 5811,342 22.8 US Construction Pipeline Total by Rooms: Top 10 Markets US Construction Pipeline Total by Rooms: Top 10 Markets

12 ©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com US Construction Pipeline Total by Rooms: Top 10 Markets US Construction Pipeline Total by Rooms: Top 10 Markets * = Pipeline of rooms as a percentage of current Census Projs Rms * Chicago 439,018 8.2 Austin 528,216 26.5 San Diego 348,011 13.0 Boston 497,572 14.3 Seattle 397,264 17.4

13 ©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com Rooms 97,540 44,584 84,844 70,249 53,076 LE’s US Forecast for New Hotel Openings *1.9% *1.7% *1.3 – 1.4% *1.1% *0.9%

14 ©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com Forecast for New Hotel Openings: by Chain Scale as of 2Q13 * = growth rate 201420152016 (Includes Independents) Projs Rms * Projs Rms * Projs Rms * Luxury 14 3,921 2.1 24 4,721 2.5 13 2,755 1.4 Upper Upscale 26 5,151 0.8 37 5,665 0.8 42 8,876 1.3 Upscale 20125,703 3.6 24931,252 4.3 25334,019 4.5 Upper Midscale 26224,821 2.1 33131,334 2.6 38937,926 3.1 Midscale 82 5,600 0.9 105 7,505 1.2 131 9,463 1.5 Economy 33 2,485 0.2 34 2,722 0.2 36 2,982 0.2 Casino 122,568 1.2 5 1,645 0.7 7 1,519 0.7 LE’s US Forecast for New Hotel Openings: By Chain Scale LE’s US Forecast for New Hotel Openings: By Chain Scale

15 ©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com Under Construction PlanningTotal Pipeline Proj Rms Proj Rms Proj Rms United States 970126,3802,341295,0073,311 421,387 Other Americas 463 76,684 497 71,742 960 148,426 EMEA 681143,826 645110,4101,326 254,236 Asia Pac 2,791567,409 883189,7983,674 757,207 Global 4,905914,2994,366666,9579,2711,581,256 Global Construction Pipeline Total: By Region Global Construction Pipeline Total: By Region

16 ©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com Projs Rms United Kingdom 202 28,665 Russia 109 22,497 Germany 98 18,343 Turkey 67 11,617 Spain 37 5,318 Europe Construction Pipeline Total by Rooms: Top 5 Countries Europe Construction Pipeline Total by Rooms: Top 5 Countries

17 ©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com Projs Rms China2,409521,452 India 370 54,815 Indonesia 338 52,495 Japan 147 28,172 Malaysia 67 17,219 Asia Pacific Construction Pipeline Total by Rooms: Top 5 Countries Asia Pacific Construction Pipeline Total by Rooms: Top 5 Countries

18 ©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com 0809101112132Q YTD >200 Rooms 72479012811213975 <200 Rooms 829381425560469819244 Total Trans 901428515688581958319 121K 197K 72K 107K 152K 77K Average Selling Price Per Room (000s) US Transactions with a Reported Selling Price 211K 76K

19 ©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com US Lodging Real Estate Total Investment by Dollars 1 As SellersAs Buyers $ Millions 201220132Q YTD201220132Q YTD Privately Held Companies Equity Funds2,9085,2732,2542,8764,4971,770 Hotel Companies2,2575,2532,2352,1802,9291,332 Individual Owners1,9621,4836911,0101,254888 Publicly Traded Companies REITs9682,9937533,4225,0242,722 Hotel Companies1,0601,052878151,058405 Other Entities7311,1277073842,420402 Total Dollar Volume9,88617,1827,5199,88617,1827,519 1 For Transactions with a reported Selling Price

20 ©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com US Transactions By Chain Scale 1 by Number of Hotels Sold Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy 1 Includes Like Kind Independents 515 688 581 958 319

21 ©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com Forecast The overall US Market will continue to remain robust in several areas including Transactions. The Construction Pipeline will continue to grow but it will be dominated by projects with less than 200 rooms in the Upscale and Upper Midscale Chain Scales. Highest rate markets and gateway cities will continue to draw eager developers looking for land or adaptive reuse projects. Availability of debt will continue to improve. Profits will continue to rise as we have a good four-year run in front of us.

22 ©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com


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