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Project Title: Economic Consequence Analysis Tool (E-CAT)

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1 Project Title: Economic Consequence Analysis Tool (E-CAT)
Kickoff Template Submission Date: 1/5/15 Adam Rose (PI), Fynn Prager (RT lead), Zhenhua Chen, Nat Heatwole, Dan Wei, Sam Chatterjee, Eric Warren

2 Project Objectives: Research Goals Research Transition Goals
Develop a quick turn-around capability to estimate economic consequences of 30+ HSNRC threat types Enhance pioneering CREATE CGE analysis on economic consequence analysis (ECA) to a broad set of threats Incorporate uncertainty on the input & output sides Research Transition Goals Transition the research into user-friendly software for use at high levels of DHS Provide training materials & workshops on model use Publish numerous peer-reviewed journal articles & a possibly a book

3 DHS Interest and Motivation:
Why is DHS interested CREATE has done pioneering work on ECA DHS needs rapid ECA estimates for high-level analysis ECAT can inform policy decision-making, such as cost-benefit analyses and risk analyses, around policy measures to counter threats Who at DHS are your contacts Debra Elkins (Strategic Planning and Risk) Joseph Simons (Strategic Planning and Risk)

4 Potential non-DHS Stakeholders:
Who else (operators/customers) could be interested in your research transition? Other Federal: FEMA, TSA, Office of Policy U.S. Military State: Cal EMA Insurance industry

5 Interfaces to Related Research
(Who else is working on this) Reduced form modeling recently done by Peter Dixon translating CGE results into elasticity parameters for nuclear threats in a DNDO project (Rose, PI). Heatwole & Rose developed reduced form regression analysis for earthquake threats (basic data, not CGE) (Interfaces with others in this field) CGE modeling Risk analysis Economic resilience Behavioral psychology

6 Research Technical Plan:
Refine conceptual framework Prepare USCGE Model Engage transition team (Erroll & SPAR) Develop reduced-form approach Identify & specify consequence types Incorporate uncertainty Perform reduced-form analysis Develop software (Excel+VBA) Develop & Offer a Short-Course

7 Research Transition Plan:
Engage with DHS SPAR officials regularly throughout research process to facilitate smoother transition Identify and engage with other potential users at state and federal levels Develop training materials to accompany tool Identify & develop pioneering (& hence publishable) elements of the project Work with Erroll Southers to explore opportunities for broader dissemination of research work

8 Milestones and Schedule/Timeline:
1: Establish a work plan in conjunction with SPAR and S&T OUP (August 15, 2014). 2: Develop a refined checklist of econ consequences integrated across the set of risks DHS faces (November 15, 2014). 3: Explore alternative approaches: Check-list populated by entries & bounds from the literature & CGE modeling simulations to yield “data” for regression analysis (January 31, 2015) 4: Incorporate uncertainty into the analysis (March 1, 2015) 5: Develop and finalize a spreadsheet capability (April 30, 2015). 6: Offer a 4-hour short-course (ideally onsite at DHS) on the use of the model, model features & options for future research & capability development leveraging higher-end approaches by May 30, (Ideally, CREATE graduate interns, who will be working onsite at DHS during the summer, will support the short-course offering).

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