1. ALFISHES: A Size-structured and Spatially-explicit Model for Predicting the Impact of Hydrology on the Resident Fishes of the Everglades Mangrove Zone of Florida Bay Jon Cline University of Tennessee

2. Overview Introduction Objectives The Ecology The Model New Features Status The Future

3. Objectives The primary objective of ALFISHES is to predict the impact of hydrology on resident fishes of the Everglades mangrove zone of Florida bay. The ultimate goal of the model is use these predictions of fish biomass to assess the availability of prey base fish to wading birds and crocodiles.

4. The Ecology: The Habitat The creeks and flats of the Mangrove zone. Seasonal flooding Changes in bay level

5. The Ecology: Hypotheses The resident fish biomass is negatively impacted by saline period due to reduced food availability The resulting fish community is less robust than the historic one

7. The Model Landscape: Overview The estuarine fish model includes two sub-regions –E. Panhandle ME and –LP Key/STS ME

8. The Model Landscape: Mangrove Zone

9. The Model Landscape: Inputs Based on remote sensing and physical surveys of field sites (Lorenz 1999) Topography Florida Gap Analysis Map (FGAP v6.6) Vegetation Southern Inland Coastal Systems (SICS) numerical model (Swain 1999) Hydrology

10. The Model Landscape: A Cell 500×500 meter cells Physical factors (per cell) –Water depth –Salinity –microhabitat

11. The Model Landscape: Flooding

12. New Features: Plug and Play

13. New Features: Components Habitat components: –Ponds, Holes, Marsh, Creeks LowerTrophicLevel components: –Seasonal variation –ODE models WadingBirdPop components…

14. New Features: Client-Server CORBA Client –Java Application/Applet –XML used to specify simulation parameters –Visualization of simulation output CORBA Server –C++ ORB (MICO and ORBacus) –Runs on Solaris and Linux

15. New Features: User-Friendly

16. Status

18. The Future Incorporate SFWMM scenarios into boundary conditions for SICS Refine and calibrate model sub-components as more data become available Development of the Spoonbill component

19. The Future