1. A Toolkit Approach to Modeling Sustainable Forestry Maximize innovation and minimize re-invention Andrew Fall Landscape Systems Ecologist School of Resource and Environmental Management Simon Fraser University, Canada and Gowlland Technologies Ltd.

2. Challenges for Landscape Management  large areas and long time frames  complexity spatio-temporal feedback between pattern and process  many sources of uncertainty spatial information, key processes, natural variability  competing values cultural, conservation, resources, tourism lack of optimal solutions Yet, landscape managers must make decisions –land-use, sustainable resource management, endangered species recovery, natural disturbance …

3. –Extent: ~2 million ha –spatial data forest cover, roads,.etc management zones –non-spatial data growth and yield little ecological data little natural disturbance data District 19a Labrador

4. District 19a Issues: 20-year plan Sustainable forest management  Near pristine landscape  Co-management with Innu Key issues  traditional values (e.g. caribou)  ecological integrity  local economic development

5. Productive Forest (ha) * Mean volume/ha Mean harvest age

6. Approach: Pan-Canadian+ Team BC Québec Leverage experience  land-use planning  management (timber, roads)  disturbance  succession  wildlife  scaling stand/landscape Caribou Border Lks WNMF Finland

7. Incorporating Complexity

8. A “toolkit” approach to landscape modelling Different models are best applied at different scales and for addressing different questions Static- GIS, inventory of current conditions Dynamic - changes due to succession, management, natural disturbance Stand scale - fine-scale processes, growth and yield Landscape - timber supply, habitat supply, pattern analysis  Need ways to links models and tools of different kinds

9. Questions and Scenarios Results All Participants Conceptual Models Analysis Domain Experts Core Team Simulation Experiments Implemented Models Collaborative Landscape Analysis

10. Model “Toolkit” Approach Flexible association of models and model-building tools Coupled suite of relevant indicators reflecting values (ecological and social) Goal is the rapid assembly and development of models to address specific questions

12. SELES: Spatially Explicit Landscape Event Simulator A general tool for building models of landscape dynamics –a language for specifying models of landscape dynamics and –a simulation engine for running these models

13. SELES: paradigm  share knowledge to build capacity SELES is free models built in SELES are transparent courses are periodically given models built in SELES should be shared  maximize innovation and minimize re-invention

14. Sustainable Forest Management Planning in Labrador/Nitassinan

15. District 19a of Labrador SELES & SORTIE/BC LANDIS SORTIE/boreal BAP & HSI VLM/SELES FINLANDIS

16. Landscape Scale Objectives scenarios: project landscape conditions –integrate processes: spatial timber harvesting, fire, succession –timber supply analysis scale: vertical and horizontal –use results from stand-level and other landscape scale analyses indicators: produce ecological / timber indicators –generate spatial time series: pipelining –to assess spatial patterns of habitat

17. Conceptual Model

18. Harvesting Sub-Model Strategic level –spatial timber supply –aim to capture current policy Spatial –spatial blocks –roading

19. Road Development

20. Road “Activity Levels” –Accumulate “local volume harvested” upstream of each segment –Estimate of activity level

21. Model Integration Lateral Pipelining (comparable scales) Vertical Pipelining different scales) Growth & Yield Lateral Pipelining (comparable scales) Lateral Pipelining (comparable scales) Vertical Pipelining different scales) Individual Tree Stand Yield Curves Yield Projection D19aLM (SELES) D19aLM (SELES) Growth & Yield ( Canadian FBP LANDIS Spread Rates ( Canadian FBP LANDIS Spread Rates SORTIE Succession, Growth & Yield Neighborhood Effects Long - distance Dispersal & Disturbance Neighborhood Effects Long - distance Dispersal & Disturbance Harvest Patterns Fire Regime Harvest Patterns Fire Regime Landscape Patchworks Economic Optimization Ecological Process Patchworks Economic Optimization Ecological Process Conditions

22. How to link tools: meta-modelling file transfer –non-spatial files –spatial time-series parameters and scenario definition model embedding invocation pipelining, loose coupling tight coupling

23. How to make an effective toolkit people  tools used reflect skills of team and capacity building goals systems perspective  scale, complexity tool selection  a federation of models (cooperation) not competition