1. Polar Rules and AMSA : A Glimpse into the Future of Arctic Shipping V.M. Santos-Pedro, P.Eng. Transport Canada Marine Safety

2. Arctic Shipping Event Driven –Search for the NWP –Mineral/ Energy Exploration –Tourism & Re-supply Activity Sporadic (with lulls)

3. Development of the Polar Rules IMO Arctic Shipping Guidelines - Pollution Prevention - Integrated Approach - Class Descriptions - Nominal Equivalency Use IACS Requirements

4. Chronology of Polar Rules -1991 Germany proposes use of Class Rules for polar waters -1992 Russia adds proposal for zero discharge in Arctic waters -1993 Finland hosts meeting of experts leading to formation of first IMO Outside Working Group (OWG) -1994 Calgary hosts first official meeting of OWG (ICETECH94) -1998 Canada submits draft Polar Code to IMO and leads Correspondence Group -2000 US proposes reduced scope of guidelines for ships operating in Arctic ice-covered waters -2002 Guidelines approved in February and published in December -2004 IACS to approve Unified Requirements -2005 Antarctic Treaty countries propose amendment of Guidelines to include Antarctic waters -2006 IACS Council approves Polar Rules Unified Requirements -2008 IACS Implements Polar Rules and IMO the Polar Guidelines (?)

5. Polar Ship Rules are…. Unprecedented in scope and development Comprehensive Integrated “The harmonization of standards invites a holistic and integrated approach to safety and success.”

6. Necessary! Harmonized Polar Rules will prepare the way for future Arctic shipping standards and practices. So….. What will Arctic Shipping look like in the future?

7. Arctic Shipping in the Future?

8. The Arctic Council Reykjavik Declaration, 4 th Ministerial (Nov 2004) “ Request PAME to conduct a comprehensive Arctic marine shipping assessment as outlined in the AMSP under the guidance of Canada, Finland, and the United States as lead countries and in collaboration with the EPPR working group and other working groups of the Arctic Council and Permanent Participants as relevant.”

9. AMSA is: - A natural follow to the ACIA and the AMSP - Circumpolar, yet, regional (LME) and local focus - Led by Canada, Finland, and the US (with participation from all Arctic states) - Inclusive: Member States, Permanent Participants, Working Groups of the Arctic Council; Council Observers; Shipping Industry; International Maritime Organization; Ship Classification Societies; Research Organizations; Non-Arctic Stakeholders (examples: Japan, Germany, UK) and Others - The Arctic Council’s response to changing marine access

10. AMSA will look at: Shipping activity levels today (2004) and in the future (2020 and 2050) As well as, The environmental, social, and economic impacts of shipping

11. AMSA Efforts Thus Far… A)Organization and Planning B)Roundtable Established

12. C) Communications http://www.pame.is

13. D) Project Plan Development AMSA Work Packages WP 1 – Project Planning & Management WP 2 – Determination of Current Level of Arctic Marine Activity (Two tiers: Database collection and traditional marine use ~ Member States) WP 3 – Projected levels of Arctic Marine Activity in 2020 & 2050 (Plausible Future Scenarios ~ ACIA Sea Ice Projections and Regional Economics) WP 4 – Environmental Impact of Today’s Arctic Marine Activity WP 5 – Environmental Impact of Arctic Marine Activity in 2020 & 2050 WP 6 – Risk Analyses WP 7 – Social and Economic Impacts WP 8 – Analysis & Recommendations

14. E) Outreach Town Hall Meetings “The way of life as our forefathers knew it is disappearing like the ice…it is our children who will be affected by these ‘water visitors’ the most.” “Times are changing and so too is our use of the marine environment …but…we adapt…we are a people that know how to survive…our past can attest to that! http://www.tc.gc.ca/amsa Maritime Venues

15. F) Data Required? AMSA Dataset: 1) Marine Activity Database for 2004 (Type, Routes, Cargo) 2) Traditional (Indigenous) Marine / Ice Activity Database 3) Accident Database (Type, Location, Severity) 4) Ice Conditions Database (2004) Dataset Applications: Risk Assessments Environmental Impact Assessments Indigenous Use Impacts Social and Economic Impact Assessments

16. What Can we Learn from the Data so Far?

17. Distribution Within a Nation’s Fleet

18. Evaluate Traffic in the Arctic as a Whole

19. Traffic Density

20. Real AMSA Data in GIS Overlay Ice concentration contours plotted with active Arctic ports can help estimate seasonal economic trends

21. Ecological Criteria Used to Determine Extent of LME’s Hydrography Bathymetry Productivity Trophodynamics

22. G) Report Outlined Formed Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Geography and History of Arctic Marine Use Chapter 3: Current (2004) Levels of Arctic Marine Use Chapter 4: Use of the Arctic Ocean by Indigenous People Chapter 5: Scenarios of Future Arctic Ocean Marine Activity for 2020 and 2050 Chapter 6: Environmental Impacts at Current and Future Marine Activity (information from Work Packages 4, 5 and 6) Chapter 7: Social and Economic Impacts at Current and Future Levels (information from Work Packages 6 and 7) Chapter 8: Current Arctic Infrastructure and Anticipated Needs Chapter 9: Findings of the Assessment (information from Work Package 8)

23. Next Steps? IACS Polar Rules by March 2008 IMO Polar Guidelines by Summer 2008 (?) Canada intends to adopt IACS Polar Rules AMSA Town Hall Meetings Collection/Analysis of Shipping Data Scenario Building Form Expert Groups

24. Conclusion -Sea ice reductions = Several plausible futures - Risks, yet, opportunities - AMSA - Polar Rules

25. Thank You! Thank You