1. Agricultural trade and poverty: An agenda for debate Thom Achterbosch - Meeting ‘Rethinking agriculture in development’ - Atlantic Hotel Kijkduin - 11 October 2006

2. Agricultural Trade Policies and Development Research project Goal, contribute to… Improved insight in links of WTO Doha & farm policies to poverty & development Public debate ‘North’, capacity building ‘South’ Features Funded by Ministry of LNV: research program BO Cluster International 2-year program (2005-06)

3. Trade liberalisation Issues for poverty and development Mixed results of open trade policies in past Reform package Trade and investment Domestic reform Adjustment Livelihoods approach

4. Agricultural trade liberalisation Are we using the right tools, perspectives? Global patterns of protection and farm support Global economic analysis Small global and national benefits from a WTO deal, losses in Africa Within countries: winners and losers We ask  Are the models in touch with economic reality?  What effects on family farms, rural workers, urban poor?  Do trade positions reflect interests of the poor?

5. Endogenous price fluctuations Spatial concentration Market power Dynamic disequilibrium Strategic control of material flows Linkage effects Endogenous growth Poverty traps 1. Complications for model-based analysis

6. 2. WTO agriculture deal: too much for the poor or way too little Too much? losses for agricultural importers Food imports dearer for African importers, cotton exports grow Farm labour demand for the poorest in Latin America Reduced prices for manufactures Way too little? Price levels discourage developing country agriculture? Benign link with foreign investment, supermarkets, rural income growth? Effects of increased import competition on growth?

7. 3. Trade positions may oppose interests of the poor Positions of developing countries under WTO Doha prone to interest articulation Possible counterforces for economic adjustment Agriculture important for understanding of policy positions Pro-liberalisation group (G20) Pro-protection group (G33)

8. Conclusions Are the models in touch with economic reality? Adjust and apply global economic models What effects on family farms, rural workers, urban poor? Analyse earnings on and off the farm Long term effects uncertain Do trade positions reflect interests of the poor? Trade interests of commercial farms best articulated Mixed evidence on pro-poor

9. To be continued in the sessions Thank you © Wageningen UR