1. Building a Tool for Battle Planning: Challenges, Tradeoffs, and Experimental Findings Alexander Kott, Ray Budd, Larry Ground, Lakshmi Rebbapragada, and John Langston Presented by Ling Zhao University of Alberta February 28, 2006

2. Outline Overview of the tool Overview of the tool Key requirements and challenges Key requirements and challenges Technical approach Technical approach Experimental evaluation Experimental evaluation Lessons and future directions Lessons and future directions

3. The Quest for New Tools The US army explores computeriztion of the military planning process. The US army explores computeriztion of the military planning process. Manual process is cumbersome, inflexible and slow, yet life and death relies on it. Manual process is cumbersome, inflexible and slow, yet life and death relies on it. Success depends on synchronizing the movement of units, firepower and other effects at a precise moment. Success depends on synchronizing the movement of units, firepower and other effects at a precise moment.

4. The Tool: CADET The Course of Action Development and Evaluation Tool (CADET), is a tool to automatically translate a basic concept to a fully formed, actionable plan. The Course of Action Development and Evaluation Tool (CADET), is a tool to automatically translate a basic concept to a fully formed, actionable plan. It is a key step in the military’s standard decision making process. It is a key step in the military’s standard decision making process.

5. CADET Input: Proposed courses of action (COA) for the friendly forces, developed in a previous step, and expressed as high-level concepts. Input: Proposed courses of action (COA) for the friendly forces, developed in a previous step, and expressed as high-level concepts. Process: Expand COA into hundreds of supporting tasks required to accomplish the intended objective, and friendly COA is tested against the most likely/dangerous COA of the enemy. Process: Expand COA into hundreds of supporting tasks required to accomplish the intended objective, and friendly COA is tested against the most likely/dangerous COA of the enemy. Purpose: Produce an analytical baseline from which the commander can choose the best COA. Purpose: Produce an analytical baseline from which the commander can choose the best COA.

6. COA sketch and COA statement

7. Manual Process Commander develops a minimum of 3 COA. Commander develops a minimum of 3 COA. Planning staff work as a team for several hours. Planning staff work as a team for several hours. Outcome is a synchronization matrix. Outcome is a synchronization matrix. Content of a plan: tasks and actions of subunits and assets of the friendly force; their objectives and and manner of execution, expected timing, dependencies and synchronization; routes and locations; availability of supplies; combat losses, enemy situation and actions, etc. Content of a plan: tasks and actions of subunits and assets of the friendly force; their objectives and and manner of execution, expected timing, dependencies and synchronization; routes and locations; availability of supplies; combat losses, enemy situation and actions, etc. The final product is an executable COA translated into a synchronized operational plan. The final product is an executable COA translated into a synchronized operational plan.

8. Synchronization matrix

9. How CADET works … Human defines COA through interface. Human defines COA through interface. Definition of COA is passed to CADET. Definition of COA is passed to CADET. CADET decomposes the tasks into more detailed actions with dependencies. CADET decomposes the tasks into more detailed actions with dependencies. CADET display the result to the user as a synchronization matrix and/or as animated movements on the map-based interface. CADET display the result to the user as a synchronization matrix and/or as animated movements on the map-based interface. The user views the result, and may edit COA or the detailed plan, and presents it to the commander. The user views the result, and may edit COA or the detailed plan, and presents it to the commander. The commander can focus on the “art of war” with the help on the “science of war” from CADET. The commander can focus on the “art of war” with the help on the “science of war” from CADET.

10. CADET Speeds Up the Process General George S Patton Jr.: “[A] good plan violently executed now is better than a prefect plan next week”. General George S Patton Jr.: “[A] good plan violently executed now is better than a prefect plan next week”. CADET has been used in military labs and a CADET-assisted planner performed dramatically faster than a conventional human-only planning staff, with comparable quality of plans. CADET has been used in military labs and a CADET-assisted planner performed dramatically faster than a conventional human-only planning staff, with comparable quality of plans.

11. COA Human Interface:

12. Input to CADET:

13. Logistic Analysis of A Single Unit:

14. Logistic Analysis of All Resources (human intervention):

15. Map-based Result:

16. Synchronization Matrix Synchronization Matrix :

17. Key requirements and challenges A complex domain with strongly depended planning (activity), scheduling (timing), routing problems. A complex domain with strongly depended planning (activity), scheduling (timing), routing problems. Need to estimate attrition and consumption. Need to estimate attrition and consumption. Need to consider adversarial reactions. Need to consider adversarial reactions. Speed is extremely important (response in the order of seconds). Speed is extremely important (response in the order of seconds). Friendly user interface. Friendly user interface.

18. The CADET Technical Approach Hierarchical Task Network (HTN) Hierarchical Task Network (HTN) Planning Against Dynamic Enemy Planning Against Dynamic Enemy Knowledge Representation Knowledge Representation

19. Hierarchical Task Network HTN-like planning step produces an incremental group of tasks by applying domain-specific expansion rules. HTN-like planning step produces an incremental group of tasks by applying domain-specific expansion rules. A relatively small incremental expansion is adequately informed by the preceding decision, without extensive commitments to future decisions. A relatively small incremental expansion is adequately informed by the preceding decision, without extensive commitments to future decisions.

21. Incremental Steps In CADET, the increment is about 10-20 activities, about 5% of the activities in a complete plan. In CADET, the increment is about 10-20 activities, about 5% of the activities in a complete plan. Incremental expansion process focuses on the most significant/constrained tasks first. Incremental expansion process focuses on the most significant/constrained tasks first. It also helps user to understand how the process unfolds and allows the user to intervene it if desired. It also helps user to understand how the process unfolds and allows the user to intervene it if desired.

22. Other Considerations A version of Dijkstra routing algorithm to search for suitable routes. A version of Dijkstra routing algorithm to search for suitable routes. Special algorithms calibrated by military professionals to estimate attrition and consumption. Special algorithms calibrated by military professionals to estimate attrition and consumption. No backtracking is used: No backtracking is used: - Minimize the complexity. - Minimize the complexity. - Conflicts can better be resolved when the user can see the whole picture. - Conflicts can better be resolved when the user can see the whole picture. - Conflicts often points to a need to modify original COA. - Conflicts often points to a need to modify original COA.

23. Planning Against a Dynamic Enemy The commander and staff specify the likely action of the enemy. The commander and staff specify the likely action of the enemy. CADET proceeds in parallel both the friendly and enemy actions. CADET proceeds in parallel both the friendly and enemy actions. CADET infers possible reactions and counteractions using HTN with both resource and time constraints. CADET infers possible reactions and counteractions using HTN with both resource and time constraints. Action-Reaction-Counteraction (ARC) heuristic is used. Action-Reaction-Counteraction (ARC) heuristic is used.

24. 3-ply search 3-ply search No alternative actions (only one) No alternative actions (only one) No backtracking No backtracking Includes enough uncertainty and the solutions are often complex and non-obvious to the user. Includes enough uncertainty and the solutions are often complex and non-obvious to the user.

25. Knowledge Representation Knowledge base is a hierarchy of classes of activities, including procedures to compute conditions, generate sub-activities depending on many factors, adding temporal constraints, etc. Knowledge base is a hierarchy of classes of activities, including procedures to compute conditions, generate sub-activities depending on many factors, adding temporal constraints, etc. If there are multiple rules with a procedure, they are explicitly ordered. If there are multiple rules with a procedure, they are explicitly ordered. Most rules are used for expansion of activities, and these rules are parameterized. Most rules are used for expansion of activities, and these rules are parameterized.

27. Experimental Evaluation I Test set: 5 scenarios of Brigade-sized offensive operations. Test set: 5 scenarios of Brigade-sized offensive operations. 9 judges (mostly active duty officers). 9 judges (mostly active duty officers). Typical time by human: 4-5 officer, 3-4 hours, about 16 person-hours. Typical time by human: 4-5 officer, 3-4 hours, about 16 person-hours. CADET-Assisted: 2 minutes of CADET execution and 20 minutes of review and post-editing, about 0.4 person hour. CADET-Assisted: 2 minutes of CADET execution and 20 minutes of review and post-editing, about 0.4 person hour. Score from 0-10, with 5 being the typical quality found in today’s practice. Score from 0-10, with 5 being the typical quality found in today’s practice.

28. Result

29. No bias against computerized-looking products. No bias against computerized-looking products. Some judges strongly dislike the larger and more detailed synchronization matrices by CADET. Some judges strongly dislike the larger and more detailed synchronization matrices by CADET. CADET helps to produce complex planning products dramatically faster without loss of quality. CADET helps to produce complex planning products dramatically faster without loss of quality.

30. Experimental Evaluation II CADET integrated in a suite of decision aids for a complete cycle of Army Brigade decision making. CADET integrated in a suite of decision aids for a complete cycle of Army Brigade decision making. Two teams (8 officers each): one uses the traditional manual method, and the other has the support of decision aids. Two teams (8 officers each): one uses the traditional manual method, and the other has the support of decision aids. Purpose: check if the tool affects the ingenuity of the plan, or makes it predictable to enemy. Purpose: check if the tool affects the ingenuity of the plan, or makes it predictable to enemy.

31. Observations Quality is comparable, and the computed- aided team finished much faster. Quality is comparable, and the computed- aided team finished much faster. No evidence that the decision aids encourage a cookbook approach. No evidence that the decision aids encourage a cookbook approach. Because the planner can explorer many COA rapidly, including those unconventional, there is a potential for more ingenuity, creativity and adaptivity. Because the planner can explorer many COA rapidly, including those unconventional, there is a potential for more ingenuity, creativity and adaptivity.

32. Lessons Learned Easy user operation helps to increase the probability of user acceptance and to reduce development risks and training requirements. Easy user operation helps to increase the probability of user acceptance and to reduce development risks and training requirements. For complex domains, it is prudent for developers to use less complicated algorithms. For complex domains, it is prudent for developers to use less complicated algorithms. The Action-Reaction-Counteraction (ARC) heuristic can be a practical and robust technique for adversarial considerations. The Action-Reaction-Counteraction (ARC) heuristic can be a practical and robust technique for adversarial considerations.

33. Future Directions Support collaborations dispersed over the battlefield. Support collaborations dispersed over the battlefield. More effective human-machine interface. More effective human-machine interface. Make CADET-generated synchronization matrix easier to comprehend. Make CADET-generated synchronization matrix easier to comprehend. The capacity of continuous re-planning during execution. The capacity of continuous re-planning during execution.