1. Meeting future demand for rental housing for lower income older Australians: social or market sector supply? Andrew Jones Housing Policy Research Program, UQ and AHURI Qld Research Centre Housing Researchers Conference, 20-22 June 2007, Brisbane

2. 2 The population group Lower income older renters Defined as those aged 65+ with income below $600 per week (lowest quartile) Renting in many types of dwellings and arrangements (10 types identified) Older renters are a minority group - 11.3% of the older population and 13.9% of older householders 58% are female; 57.8% aged 65-74; 32.5% 75-84; 9.7% 85+ Most older renters have a pension as their main income source (87% compared with 60% for owner-occupiers) Low income: 54.3% less than $400 pw compared with 37.7% owner- occupiers Almost half (48%) of older rental households are lone person households compared with 26% for owner-occupiers Tenure divided between the social and market sectors: 5.0% public, 0.7% community; 5.4% market

3. 3 The policy problem ‘The persistence of the great divide between owners and renters’ (Howe 2003)’ A problem that has been recognised, but only partially addressed, for many decades Affordability –Housing costs for older householders: 7% of income (owners); 21% public renters; 28% private renters (1999) –Lone person households paying average 49% of income in private sector (1999) –30% of private renters paid 30%+ ‘after CRA payment’ (AIHW 2004) Security, suitability, quality, choice –No strong evidence, but much anecdotal evidence of significant problems Relativity to older owner-occupiers –‘their housing circumstances set them apart from the majority of older Australians for whom home ownership provides security of tenure, low housing costs, a source of equity, and a foundation for ageing well’

4. 4 The research project Research project designed to explicitly and directly address a policy question Research question: ‘What policy settings are required to ensure an adequate supply of affordable housing for lower-income older Australians in the context of population ageing?’ Funded by AHURI and report available on the AHURI web-site Team comprised a demographer (Martin Bell), ageing researcher (Cheryl Tilse), policy analysis (Andrew Jones) and property and finance (George Earl) An example of policy focused research – not only research for policy but also research about policy Strong support received from Commonwealth, SHAs and community and market sector during the conduct of the research Provides a comprehensive evidence base for policy – details the problem and proposes a way forward

5. 5 The research design and methods A ‘demand and supply’ research design in four parts What is the likely demand for affordable rental housing over the next two decades (population projections)? What are the expressed and emerging housing needs, preferences and choices of lower-income older renters (focus groups with diversity of older renters)? What is the current and anticipated capacity of the social sector to supply affordable rental housing for older people (policy analysis based on documents and key informant interviews)? What is the current and anticipated capacity of the market sector to supply affordable rental housing for older people (documents and key informant interviews)? What are the implications for policy and research?

6. 6 The findings: demography and demand The number of low income rental households & individuals will more than double from 2001-2026 Method –Based on 2004 ABS household projections series B –Assumption that the proportion of people in each household type who are low income renters remains stable –Proportions based on 2001 census household sample file Findings re low income rental households –Number of persons aged 65+ will increase from 195,000 to 419,000 –Number of households will rise from 154,000 to 336,000 –Proportion will rise only slightly from 8.0% to 8.2% –Increase in number of low income renters will be 103% for 65-74, 114% for 75-84, and 194% for 85+

7. 7 The findings: changing needs and preferences There are four major sub-groups of older renters and diversification of needs and preferences Method –13 focus groups (and some individual interviews) involving 130 older people in a diverse range of rental housing types –Representation of people in public, private, cooperative, assisted-living, Abbeyfield, retirement village, Indigenous, rural, high need –Detailed analysis of existing literature Findings –Common values: autonomy, affordability, security, sociability –Great diversity of perceived advantages and disadvantages in different types of rental housing –Main sub-groups: Long term tenants Those choosing to move to rental age-specific housing Those forced to move to rental housing (1/4 previous home owners) The marginally attached to housing

8. 8 The findings: social sector supply The social sector does not have the capacity or clear intent to address this increasing demand Method –Detailed analysis of documents and data on current supply and stated intent –Key informant interviews in all jurisdictions (68 interviews) Findings –The expansion of affordable rental housing for older people is not an identifiable national policy priority of the CSHA –This issue has a low priority in the ageing strategies, and most of the social housing and affordable housing strategies of of the States and Territories –Older people are a major group of existing public housing tenants (28.4%) but the proportion of new allocations to older people is much lower (11.4%) –Older people face high competition for limited resources in a public housing sector focused on ‘high needs’ –The capacity of the community sector re older persons’ housing is unrealised

9. 9 The findings: market sector supply The market sector has shown considerable interest in expanding supply but has experienced major difficulties Method –Key informant interviews with investors, developers and managers (26 interviews) as well as public sector informants –Detailed analysis of company documents and reports Findings –SHAs are involved in expanding market supply through disparate projects and initiatives rather than in the form of a concerted strategy –Major growth of private companies in providing assisted-living rental villages Sunnycove, Village Life, Oxford Crest Financial problems Problems with the housing model and management –Significant potential for private sector investment in affordable rental housing for older people

10. 10 The research conclusions In order to meet the demand for low cost rental housing over the next two decades a new policy approach is required The number of low income rental households & individuals will more than double from 2001-2026 There are four major sub-groups of older renters and diversification of needs and preferences The social sector does not have the capacity or clear intent to address this increasing demand The market sector has shown considerable interest in expanding supply but has experienced major difficulties

11. 11 The policy implications The choice is between an expansion of social housing or a new governance approach A new governance approach would involve an integrated, multi- sector strategy, directed by the public sector, and drawing on the resources of the state, community and private sectors –Policy and service system definition – affordable housing for older people needs to be developed as a service system rather than a component of social housing policy [compare the aged care system] –Steering capacity – the capacity to plan and develop good quality, diverse supply through directing or influencing several sectors –Network enhancement – the development of effective networks involving the state, community and market sectors –Change management capacity – capacity to manage extensive changes over next two decades in population AND in public sector management

12. 12 The research implications Research must be proactive in anticipating policy problems and putting issues on the agenda This research study provides an unambiguous foundation for policy development We need to find ways for effective engagement with the policy community around this issue AND ongoing research We need research on the governance of housing (collaboration, integration, inter-sector relations especially with market sector) We need research on specific groups of older renters – especially older renters in the ‘old’ private rental market We need to know more about the ‘new’ private rental providers We need to know more about the community sector and older person’s housing But is the priority need for more research or for more policy development?