1. Global Chemical Weather Forecasts for Field Campaign Planning: Predictions and Observations of Large-Scale Phenomena during MINOS, CONTRACE, and INDOEX M. G. Lawrence, P. J. Rasch, R. von Kuhlmann, J. Williams, H. Fischer, M. de Reus, J. Lelieveld, P. J. Crutzen, H. Huntrieser, J. Heland, A. Stohl, C. Forster, M. Schultz, P. Stier, R. R. Dickerson IGAC2002 Conference Crete, 23 September 2002

2. Meteorological Weather Forecasts Forward and Backward Trajectories Chemical Weather Forecasts Flight Planning Stratospheric Regional Tropospheric Global Tropospheric

3. The Chemical Weather Forecast System MATCH-MPIC –Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry –NMHC Chemistry (up to C5 HCs) –56 Species, 140 Reactions –Online wet & dry dep, j-vals, emissions Meteorology: NCEP AVN –Diagnosed H 2 O, Clouds, Convection Near real time (NRT) run 3-day Forecasts

4. Field Campaigns Overview INDOEX (February-March, 1999) –Forecasted flights: 3 –Objectives: Indian Outflow, NH/SH difference at ITCZ –CO Comparison: r NRT = 0.74, r Fcst = 0.73 MINOS (August, 2001) –Forecasted flights: 5 –Objectives: European Outflow, Asian Monsoon Plume –CO Comparison: r NRT = 0.75, r Fcst = 0.76 CONTRACE (November, 2001) –Forecasted flights: 3 (2 2-part) –Objectives: European Outflow, North American Plumes –CO Comparison: r NRT = 0.82, r Fcst = 0.80 Others: ITCT 2k2, PEACE-B, SMOCC Planned: UTOPIHAN, CONTRACE 2

5. Field Campaigns Overview INDOEX (February-March, 1999) –Forecasted flights: 3 –Objectives: Indian Outflow, NH/SH difference at ITCZ –CO Comparison: r NRT = 0.74, r Fcst = 0.73 MINOS (August, 2001) –Forecasted flights: 5 –Objectives: European Outflow, Asian Monsoon Plume –CO Comparison: r NRT = 0.75, r Fcst = 0.76 CONTRACE (November, 2001) –Forecasted flights: 3 (2 2-part) –Objectives: European Outflow, North American Plumes –CO Comparison: r NRT = 0.82, r Fcst = 0.80 Others: ITCT 2k2, PEACE-B, SMOCC Planned: UTOPIHAN, CONTRACE 2

6. MINOS Asian Monsoon Plume 090E180E180W90W 90S 0 90N 1000 750 500 250 100 Pressure (hPa)

7. MINOS Asian Monsoon Plume

8. MATCH-MPIC Forecasts => Also similar CO tracer forecasts from ECHAM

9. Asian Plume Observations => Also similar CO tracer results from ECHAM

10. Asian Plume Frequency MATCH-MPIC Output: Total CO (NRT) Total CO (2-day Fcst) Asian CO (N+S) (1 July) (30 Sept) Crete: 23% 10 0 S: 33% 10 0 W: 9%10 0 E: 42%

11. Conclusions Global chemical weather forecasting works well –CO and regional CO tracers most valuable so far –r  0.75 for CO in all campaigns –Assimilation not required for CO Global => intercontinental transport –Southern Asian monsoon plume (MINOS) –North American outflow (CONTRACE) More info: –http://www.mpch-mainz.mpg.de/~lawrence/forecasts.html interactive plotting system –Lawrence et al., submitted to Atmos. Chem. Phys.