1. 1 Spending on education and training: an update Gerald Burke CEET CEET 10 th National Conference 3November 2006 www.education.monash.edu.au/centres/ceet Gerald.burke@education.monash.edu.au

2. 2 Expanding the training system The current cost of provision The size of the expansion required Where will the funds come from?

3. 3 VET: hours of training and revenue 1999 2004 increase % Total hours, million 299 342 15 'Private' revenue $m 698 1,03849 Government revenue $m 3,375 3,93917 TOTAL revenue $m 4,073 4,97722 TOTAL in constant 2005 prices $m 5,126 5,2192 $ per hour in constant 2005 prices 17.1 15.2 -11 Composite price index (0.7 WPI Education, 0.3 non-farm GDP deflator) 2005=100.79.9520

4. 4 Schools: students and revenue 19992004 Increase 1999 to 2004 Government schools % Students EFT '000 2,244 2,2631 TOTAL (government) revenue $m 15,464 20,35432 TOTAL in constant 2005 prices $m 19,465 21,34410 $ per student in constant 2005 prices 8,676 9,4349 Non-government schools Students EFT '000 990 1,09010 Private income $m 2,853 4,49658 State government grants $m 1,119 1,60844 Commonwealth government grants $m 2,608 4,42470 TOTAL revenue $m 6,579 10,52660 TOTAL in constant 2005 prices $m 8,281 11,03833 $ per student in constant 2005 prices 8,365 10,12821

5. 5 Publicly funded Australian university students and revenue 1999*2004 Increase 1999 to 04 % Actual places EFT (net of RTS) '000434414-5 Australian Government $m2,5542,99517 Student Contribution/HECS liabilities $m1,6621,96118 Total Base Operating Grant $m4,2164,95618 Total in constant 2005 prices $m5,3075,197-2 $ per student in 2005 prices 12,221 12,5503 Composite price index (0.7 WPI Education, 0.3 non-farm GDP deflator) 2005=100.79.9520 * 1999 approximate estimate

6. 6 Students hours and revenues: summary 19992004 Increase 99 to 04 % Government schools Students EFT '000 2,244 2,2631 $ per student in constant 2005 prices 8,676 9,4349 Non-government schools Students EFT '000 990 1,09010 $ per student in constant 2005 prices 8,365 10,12821 Vocational Education and Training VET Hours million 299 34215 $ per hour in constant 2005 prices 17 15-11 Publicly funded Australian University Students Actual places EFT (net of RTS) '000 434 414-5 $ per student in constant 2005 prices 12,221 12,5503

7. 7 Key findings on real revenues 1999 to 2004 VET revenues hardly changed whereas hours of training increased 15 per cent Government school funds increased 10 per cent and student numbers scarcely at all Non-government schools funds increased (due mainly to Australian government funding and fees) by over 30 per cent and students by 10 per cent Public funds for Australian students in universities fell a little and the student numbers a little more

8. 8 Australian government appropriations for employer incentives for apprentices/trainees, NACs etc (There are also state incentives - not shown) 2000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-06 $m428493586686723794 Index100115137160169185

9. 9 Employer expenditure and private training Employer training expenditure is hard to estimate – last measured by ABS 2001-02 Large numbers of enrolments in privately funded VET but size of the effort and funding not known

10. 10 Expansion required to 2016 – student contact hours (million) Qualification level Requirements to meet 2016 target Delivery at 2005 rate Expected surplus (+) / shortfall (-) Annual % increase to meet requirements Adv Diploma736157-58027.2 Diploma1,068483-58514.1 Certificate IV46251451-1.9 Certificate III1,2621107-1552.4 Certificate II218476258-14.9 Certificate I11819880-9.7 All3,8642,933-931 5.0

11. 11 Expanding VET revenues at 5 per cent per annum from 2006 200620112016 Revenues (all sources) $m543069308845 Index (2006=100)100128163 Increase over 2006 $m15003415 Cumulative addition $m4,35417,412

12. 12 Issues and future The base funding is projected to grow at 5 per cent per annum Eg the base will be $1500 million per year higher in 2011 ‘Skills for the Future’ provides $837m over 5 years from 2006 ‘Skills for the Future’ includes employer incentives State programs eg ‘Skilled Victorians’ extra $241m over 4 years Migration Other funding: employers, fees, loans Reducing cost per hour, as in recent years Improving completion rates and shortening courses