Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-1 PART ONE Executive Market Briefing Michael A. Marullo Principal & Director Strategic Market R&D.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-1 PART ONE Executive Market Briefing Michael A. Marullo Principal & Director Strategic Market R&D."— Presentation transcript:

1 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-1 PART ONE Executive Market Briefing Michael A. Marullo Principal & Director Strategic Market R&D + 1 504 466 3460 Market Horizons™ Report Real-time Automation & Controls (RTAC) in the North American Water/Wastewater Utilities Marketplace (2003-2007)

2 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-2 About This Report InfoNetrix LLC, an independent technical research and consulting firm specialized in utility automation and information technology (Utility Automation/IT) markets conducted the research for this report. InfoNetrix reports are available for subscription by any and all interested parties, foreign and domestic (except as prohibited by law), in accordance with the pricing and terms set forth in the prospectus, provided separately. This report addresses Real-time Automation & Controls (RTAC) in the North American Water/Wastewater Utilities Marketplace. Other reports in the Market Horizons™ Series provide similar analyses of Real-time Automation & Controls (RTAC) in the North American Electric Utilities Marketplace and of Geospatial & Field Automation Solutions (GFAS) in the North American Utilities Marketplace. Please visit www.InfoNetrix.com for more information about these and other InfoNetrix Advisory Services.www.InfoNetrix.com InfoNetrix LLC, an independent technical research and consulting firm specialized in utility automation and information technology (Utility Automation/IT) markets conducted the research for this report. InfoNetrix reports are available for subscription by any and all interested parties, foreign and domestic (except as prohibited by law), in accordance with the pricing and terms set forth in the prospectus, provided separately. This report addresses Real-time Automation & Controls (RTAC) in the North American Water/Wastewater Utilities Marketplace. Other reports in the Market Horizons™ Series provide similar analyses of Real-time Automation & Controls (RTAC) in the North American Electric Utilities Marketplace and of Geospatial & Field Automation Solutions (GFAS) in the North American Utilities Marketplace. Please visit www.InfoNetrix.com for more information about these and other InfoNetrix Advisory Services.www.InfoNetrix.com

3 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-3 General Information & Notifications PURPOSE The information contained in this document is for the sole use of InfoNetrix clients and is not to be distributed outside client organizations. No part of this publication may be reproduced, transcribed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any electronic storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the copyright owner. DISCLAIMER This publication has been prepared with care, however, no guarantee of accuracy, completeness, or warranty of any kind is expressed or implied, nor shall InfoNetrix be liable to any user of the publication or any portion(s) hereof for any direct or indirect damages, expenses, costs or losses of any kind resulting from its use. COUNTRY OF ORIGIN United States of America PURPOSE The information contained in this document is for the sole use of InfoNetrix clients and is not to be distributed outside client organizations. No part of this publication may be reproduced, transcribed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any electronic storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the copyright owner. DISCLAIMER This publication has been prepared with care, however, no guarantee of accuracy, completeness, or warranty of any kind is expressed or implied, nor shall InfoNetrix be liable to any user of the publication or any portion(s) hereof for any direct or indirect damages, expenses, costs or losses of any kind resulting from its use. COUNTRY OF ORIGIN United States of America

4 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-4 Research Standards & Methodology The preparation of this report follows generally accepted standards of market research practice and is based on principles of truthfulness and professionalism. A reasonable and prudent effort has been made to ensure that factors and circumstances having a material impact on any decision-making process derived from, or impacted by, this report are included in the analyses and recommendations. The representations of industry and market data and portrayals of the business environment are based on market research conducted by experienced professionals with broad knowledge and experience in the markets addressed. The information upon which the findings and analyses contained in this report are based was obtained through a combination of telephone interviews with key suppliers and consultants and other individuals with extensive market knowledge and experience, augmented by survey with a cross section of utility managers and ongoing interactive research with over 1,000 utilities annually. Each telephone interview/survey was guided by a specially designed questionnaire to obtain pertinent data, insights and market perspectives. These interviews were augmented by secondary research across a wide range of reliable public and proprietary information sources pertinent to the study. The preparation of this report follows generally accepted standards of market research practice and is based on principles of truthfulness and professionalism. A reasonable and prudent effort has been made to ensure that factors and circumstances having a material impact on any decision-making process derived from, or impacted by, this report are included in the analyses and recommendations. The representations of industry and market data and portrayals of the business environment are based on market research conducted by experienced professionals with broad knowledge and experience in the markets addressed. The information upon which the findings and analyses contained in this report are based was obtained through a combination of telephone interviews with key suppliers and consultants and other individuals with extensive market knowledge and experience, augmented by survey with a cross section of utility managers and ongoing interactive research with over 1,000 utilities annually. Each telephone interview/survey was guided by a specially designed questionnaire to obtain pertinent data, insights and market perspectives. These interviews were augmented by secondary research across a wide range of reliable public and proprietary information sources pertinent to the study.

5 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-5 Research Reliability & Acceptance The information presented in this report was gathered, recorded and analyzed with care and precision. However, there will undoubtedly be differences between the findings presented and actual results for various reasons and, because future events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, those differences may be material. For these and other reasons (including, but not necessarily limited to human error, misinterpretations, misunderstandings and information sensitivities among respondents), the resulting data will most likely not be completely accurate in all respects. Moreover, the forecasts presented herein reflect judgments made as of the period during which this report was prepared. As such, some aspects can be expected to change as a result of numerous direct and indirect factors, which are beyond the scope of this report to accurately predict. For example, it assumes that current events will continue to have the same effect on the marketplace in the future and that the conventional wisdom of today will continue to be completely applicable to future market conditions, which is at best, unlikely. By accepting and using the information contained in this report, the user assumes all responsibility for its use for any and all purposes as user may deem appropriate and agrees to hold InfoNetrix, its principals and its staff harmless from any direct, indirect or consequential damages resulting from, or in any way related to, such use(s). However, InfoNetrix actively solicits and welcomes inquiries or other input regarding any errors, omissions or inconsistencies discovered during the course of using this report. Please direct any such correspondence to InfoNetrix Client Services. (Detailed company contact information is provided on the web at: www.InfoNetrix.com.) The information presented in this report was gathered, recorded and analyzed with care and precision. However, there will undoubtedly be differences between the findings presented and actual results for various reasons and, because future events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, those differences may be material. For these and other reasons (including, but not necessarily limited to human error, misinterpretations, misunderstandings and information sensitivities among respondents), the resulting data will most likely not be completely accurate in all respects. Moreover, the forecasts presented herein reflect judgments made as of the period during which this report was prepared. As such, some aspects can be expected to change as a result of numerous direct and indirect factors, which are beyond the scope of this report to accurately predict. For example, it assumes that current events will continue to have the same effect on the marketplace in the future and that the conventional wisdom of today will continue to be completely applicable to future market conditions, which is at best, unlikely. By accepting and using the information contained in this report, the user assumes all responsibility for its use for any and all purposes as user may deem appropriate and agrees to hold InfoNetrix, its principals and its staff harmless from any direct, indirect or consequential damages resulting from, or in any way related to, such use(s). However, InfoNetrix actively solicits and welcomes inquiries or other input regarding any errors, omissions or inconsistencies discovered during the course of using this report. Please direct any such correspondence to InfoNetrix Client Services. (Detailed company contact information is provided on the web at: www.InfoNetrix.com.)

6 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-6 Market Horizons™ Report Contents 1.Executive Market Briefing 2.Marketplace Characteristics 3.Market Drivers, Issues & Trends 4.Market Analysis & Future Outlook 5.Supplier Environment

7 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-7 Executive Market Briefing Market Perspectives Marketplace Structure & Composition Prevailing Market Conditions Market Analysis Synopsis 7 SignsThe 7 Signs of Market Evolution (7 Signs) Future Market Outlook Suppliers & Competition Summary/Conclusions

8 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-8 "Everything that can be said has been said, but we have to say it again because no one was listening.” - Andre Gide (French novelist) Market Perspectives Market Research

9 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-9 “You don't take technologies to market, you take products to market. A technology reaches the marketplace if it supports a product that provides utility and value." - Alberto Leon-Garcia, IEEE Fellow & Professor, University of Toronto Market Perspectives Technology & Innovation

10 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-10 “Many of the plants have Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems for either their process monitoring or control. Plants that do not have around-the-clock operators may use SCADA to monitor or control their systems while the operator is not on site. Nineteen percent of the plants that treat ground water and do not have around-the-clock operators use SCADA for process monitoring; 14 percent use it for process control. The percentages double for surface water plants. For both ground water and surface water plants, large plants and plants in larger systems are more likely to use SCADA than small plants in smaller systems.” US EPA815-R-02-005A; Community Water System Survey 2000; Volume 1: Overview; Office of Water (4607M); DEC 2002 Market Perspectives System Operations

11 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-11 “The notion that SCADA systems are highly customized, highly technical, and therefore the guys in the black hats won't be able to figure them out is something Eric Byres of the British Columbia Institute of Technology calls the ‘Myth of Obscurity’. Forget it. SCADA documents have been recovered from al Qaeda safe houses in Afghanistan. An estimated 60 to 70 percent of all industrial security breaches are carried out by someone on the inside. There is no security through obscurity.” - Excerpts from keynote address, as prepared by Dr. Arden Bement, Director - National Institute of Standards & Technology, at the NSF Workshop on Critical Infrastructure Protection for SCADA & IT October 20, 2003 Market Perspectives Security & Data Integrity

12 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-12 Marketplace Structure & Composition Water/Wastewater Environment Cycle Water Treatment Plant Booster Pumps Sewage Treatment Post Treatment Storage Water Pipes Sewer Pipes Reservoir Ground Water Wells River Source Treatment Distribution Sewer/Treatment Discharge SOURCE: Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM

13 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-13 Prevailing Market Conditions Principal Market Drivers  Population Growth & Shifts  Improving Economic Conditions  Political & Regulatory Issues  Clean Water Act  Safe Drinking Water Act  Public Health Security and Bioterrorism Preparedness and Response Act  Rising Security Concerns  Do more with less mantra  Interoperability & Standardization  Asset Management  Infrastructure Repair/Replacement Key Issues & Trends  Increasing Security Awareness  Security Budgeting Challenges  Threat Mitigation Planning  Ongoing Economic Uncertainty  More Holistic Solution Sets  Increasing Use of PLCs as RTUs  Enterprise Asset Management  More Standards/Standardization  Fewer Privatization Initiatives  Reduced Utility M&A Activity  More Supplier Consolidation

14 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-14 Market Analysis Synopsis Expect slow but steady recovery following economic recession  Municipal tax coffers drained as economy worsened  Economic stability helped get some projects back on track  Many utilities afraid to launch new projects until economic recovery showed sustainability  New security mandates further strained utility resources Privatization and M&A activity slowed during recession  In some cases, privatization did not deliver promised benefits and ran counter to political interests and expediency  Merged utilities needed reorganization & recovery time Continued population growth will drive need for more and improved facilities  EPA rules are continually being revised and tightened  EPA reporting requirements becoming more demanding

15 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-15 Project Downsizing  Future spending plans call for increasingly larger numbers of more modest projects among large and small utilities that: Are less capital-intensive projects; more O&M funded projects Can be defined & justified using simple Cost-Benefits Analysis Deliver tangible short-term results  Large CapEx automation projects diminishing due to… Do More with Less! utility doctrine Protracted Design/Justification/Procurement cycles overtaxing limited (downsized) utility staff, capital & other resources Utilities now being focused on Application Execution Mode projects; i.e., those capitalizing on past mega-$ investments Standardization & open designs that now support mainly incremental, modular approach to new and legacy installations Market Analysis Synopsis (Cont’d)

16 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-16 Regulatory & legislative mandates will redefine RTAC markets:  Security issues are moving up the priority list and demand an increasing portion of utility budgets, staff and resources Some RTAC funds may be redirected or expanded for these purposes No legislation is likely to specifically fund security improvements  Other mandates are also adding to the demand for better, faster, more accurate information, some of which is resident in RTAC systems and databases GASB-34 (Governmental Accounting Standards Board) –Establishes a new financial reporting model for state and local governments (Key impact on municipal utilities) –Biggest change in the history of public-sector accounting Sarbanes-Oxley Act –Defines new financial reporting rules for corporations in wake of Enron collapse and corporate accounting scandals –Primarily an IT issue but will eventually have links in and out of RTAC to validate operational data (Key impact on investor-owned utilities) Market Analysis Synopsis (Cont’d)

17 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-17 The 7 Signs of Market Evolution 1. Regulatory Policy & Governance 2. Economics & Investment 3. Technology/Integration/Standardization 4. Data Integrity & System Security 5. Web & Wireless Solutions 6. Enterprise Asset Management (EAM) 7. Customer Care & Satisfaction of Market Evolution

18 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-18 1: Regulatory Policy & Governance 2002-03:  Utilities beginning to comprehend security threat mitigation issues & costs  EPA funding for vulnerability assessments substantially depleted  Reporting requirements are onerous and getting worse! 2004-07:  Security mandates will become a major factor in future RTAC procurements; new & retrofit  Regulatory requirements (e.g., CWA & SDWA) driving more accurate & timely monitoring & reporting  GASB-34 & Sarbanes-Oxley have potentially significant long-term compliance implications

19 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-19 2: Economics & Investment Economics  Market recovery closely tied to economic recovery, population growth & shifts  Municipals still struggling in wake of recession-induced tax funded deficits  More modest projects on the rise Investment  Privatization still ongoing but slower paced now because: Some large privatization projects have been reversed or abandoned –Atlanta (Canceled in 2002) –New Orleans (Dropped plans)  Some utilities are reluctant to invest despite budgeted projects for fear of being labeled spendthrifts until full economic recovery is apparent

20 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-20 3: Technology/Integration/Standardization Technology  Simple; open standards; low or no maintenance  Intuitive operation  Easier to support & maintain Integration  Plant-centric approach  Enterprise Application Integration (EAI) making inroads… slowly  Asset Management still incubating but starting to emerge Standardization  ModBus (still) rules but also…  Ethernet (the way of the future)  DF1 (Allen-Bradley)  DNP (growing)

21 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-21 4: Data Integrity & System Security System Integrity  Data access & distribution plans are being negatively impacted by security concerns, but:  Web-based tools are powerful & economical for non-critical and/or monitor-only applications  Lowest Cost vs. Best Solution still a difficult issue for most municipal utilities Data Security Issues  Access by non-operations staff  Corporate I/T network usage creates new vulnerabilities  Encryption & authentication may be coming (e.g., AGA-12) for critical applications

22 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-22 5: Web & Wireless Solutions Web  Many data access/distribution vulnerabilities remain unsolved RCM/CBM heavily impacted by bandwidth & access restrictions Web-based control on hold (for now); surveillance-only growing Wireless  Coverage improvements driving increased use But: Network saturation looms large Negatively impacted by security issues Problems remain in both areas, but resolution is coming; big problems usually command big solutions!

23 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-23 6: Enterprise Asset Management (EAM) EAM is all about the money ; not the technology; ROI/ROA are key Aging asset base & useful life extension issues now evolving (Sweat the Assets!) EAM projects are driven by finance; not engineering or operations First targets will be fast, easy pay-backs People are assets too (Brain-drain remains a problem due to downsizing and retiring workforce talent pools)  Expect increasing reliance on automation to replace retirees  Increased use of RCM/CBM to extend asset life; reduce risk

24 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-24 7: Customer Care & Satisfaction Emerging issue for water/wastewater utilities Increased accountability and reporting are coming Main impact areas for RTAC:  Asset Management  Work Management W/O Scheduling W/O Assignment W/O Processing W/O Tracking  Workforce Management Crew Allocation Crew Dispatch/Recall

25 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-25 Future Market Outlook Automation & I/T Trends Potential business benefits achievable Proximity to core business PC Maintenance Remote Metering Internet Systems Integration SCADA External Application Development Call Center Operation Asset Management SOURCE: DATAMONITOR Impact & Importance of Automation & IT Initiatives Among Utilities Mission-critical

26 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-26 General Systems OutlookGeneral Systems Outlook  RTAC Systems will see modest but steady growth across most ASP ranges in both the number of opportunities and market values as more small utilities become buyers and larger utilities return to active (yet modest) project development as the economy improves. Systems Segment OutlookSystems Segment Outlook  SCADA: Good growth for systems priced in lower ASP ranges (≤750K) with increasing numbers of small utilities moving into digital telemetry and more modest, incremental projects among large utilities  PAS: Good growth for systems priced in middle to upper ASP ranges (≤750K-$5M) as plants prepare for faster, more accurate data acquisition under tighter CWA & SDWA rules  Hybrid: Good growth in systems priced in lower ASP ranges (≤750K) as utilities add SCADA to existing PAS systems Future Market Outlook WWMS-RTAC Market Trends: Systems

27 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-27 General Field Data Devices OutlookGeneral Field Data Devices Outlook  FDDs will continue to see good growth across most ASP ranges driven by various factors including, but not limited to: Increasingly tighter EPA requirements to satisfy CWA and SDWA rules driving more data acquisition; better accuracy and reporting Population growth and shifts placing more demands on aging infrastructure and creating needs for new facilities Influx of smaller utilities becoming more sophisticated  PLCs will continue to gradually displace conventional RTUs & DCS nodes due to increasing functionality, simplicity & standardization. Field Data Devices Segment OutlookField Data Devices Segment Outlook  Distribution & Collection FDDs: Good growth in lower (≤$2K) ranges; best growth in mainstream (≤$3.5K-$7.5K) ASP range. Most low-end units will be for SCADA expansion & adding SCADA to PAS projects.  Plant FDDs: Good growth across most ASP ranges; best growth in mainstream (≤$3.5K-$7.5K) ASP range; modest growth in lower (≤$2K) ranges. Many low-end units will be for adding SCADA to legacy PAS projects. Future Market Outlook WWMS-RTAC Market Trends: FDDs

28 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-28 General Market Profile WWMS - RTAC Market Values Annual Expenditures* ($ Millions) *NOTE: Logarithmic Scale

29 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-29 Annual Expenditures ($Millions) General Market Profile Market Composition & Contributions

30 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-30 Principal System Solution Providers  ABB  Bristol Babcock  Emerson Process Management  Honeywell  Invensys-Foxboro  Rockwell/Allen-Bradley  Telvent  Transdyn Suppliers & Competition Market Leadership: RTAC Systems

31 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-31 Principal FDD Suppliers  Bristol Babcock  Control Microsystems  GE-Industrial (GE-Fanuc)  Rockwell/Allen-Bradley  Schneider Group (Square D; Modicon)  Siemens  Telvent (formerly Metso Automation) Suppliers & Competition Market Leadership: RTAC FDDs

32 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-32 Summary/Conclusions Market Challenges & Critical Success Factors Market Challenges… Suppliers  Solve major data security issues Technological AND Budgeting/Funding  Define Asset Management  Communications transitions (e.g., from leased lines to wireless)  Downward pressure on System & FDD average selling prices Utilities  Security compliance issues & costs  Reduced staff & resources  M&A and restructuring activity  Economic recovery following recession Critical Success Factors… Low Initial Price (Most MUNIs) Open standards & open integration at all levels Reliability & Reputation for:  Quality service & support  Proper applications and skillful execution  Holistic solution set Ability to augment good products with good services Offer viable migration path to next generation products, technologies and applications Business Case & Cost/Benefit analysis (for IOUs and private water companies)

33 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-33 Short-term (2003-04):Short-term (2003-04):  Rise of automation/IT role as part of: EPA tightening of monitoring & reporting rules EPA demands for better, faster, more accurate data New I/T requirements (GASB-34, Sarbanes-Oxley, etc.) Enterprise Asset Management Long-term (2004-07):Long-term (2004-07):  Need for investments in aging infrastructure  Growing emphasis on standards and interoperability at device, data (acquisition) and enterprise levels Key Utility Wants, Needs & Expectations:Key Utility Wants, Needs & Expectations:  Economical, properly supported business solutions  Intuitive; easy-to-own, operate & support technical solutions  Solutions that address rising Asset Management objectives  Clear, viable migration paths to the next level(s) Summary/Conclusions Short-term and Long-term Assessments

34 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-34 Murphy’s Technology Laws 1.You can never tell which way the train went by looking at the track. 2.Logic is a systematic method of coming to the wrong conclusion with confidence. 3.Whenever a system becomes completely defined, some damn fool discovers something which either abolishes the system or expands it beyond recognition. 4.Technology is dominated by those who manage what they do not understand. 5.If builders built buildings the way programmers wrote programs, then the first woodpecker that came along would destroy civilization. 6.The opulence of the front office decor varies inversely with the fundamental solvency of the firm. 7.The attention span of a computer is only as long as its electrical cord. 8.An expert is one who knows more and more about less and less until he knows absolutely everything about nothing. 9.Tell a man there are 300 billion stars in the universe and he'll believe you. Tell him a bench has wet paint on it and he'll have to touch to be sure. 10.All great discoveries are made by mistake. 11.Always draw your curves, then plot your reading. 12.Nothing ever gets built on schedule or within budget. 13.All's well that ends. 14.A meeting is an event at which the minutes are kept and the hours are lost. 15.The first myth of management is that it exists.

35 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-35 Murphy’s Technology Laws (Cont’d) 16.A failure will not appear till a unit has passed final inspection. 17.New systems generate new problems. 18.To err is human, but to really foul things up requires a computer. 19.We don't know one millionth of one percent about anything. 20.Any given program, when running, is obsolete. 21.Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. 22.A computer makes as many mistakes in two seconds as 20 men working 20 years make. 23.The faster a computer is, the faster it will reach a crashed state. 24.Nothing motivates a man more than to see his boss putting in an honest day's work. 25.Some people manage by the book, even though they don't know who wrote the book or even what book. 26.The primary function of the design engineer is to make things difficult for the fabricator and impossible for the serviceman. 27.To spot the expert, pick the one who predicts the job will take the longest and cost the most. 28.After all is said and done, a hell of a lot more is said than done. 29.Any circuit design must contain at least one part which is obsolete, two parts which are unobtainable and three parts which are still under development. 30.A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that works.

36 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-36 Murphy’s Technology Laws (Cont’d) 31.If mathematically you end up with the incorrect answer, try multiplying by the page number. 32.Computers are unreliable, but humans are even more unreliable. Any system which depends on human reliability is unreliable. 33.Give all orders verbally. Never write anything down that might go into a "Pearl Harbor File." 34.Under the most rigorously controlled conditions of pressure, temperature, volume, humidity, and other variables the organism will do as it damn well pleases. 35.If you can't understand it, it is intuitively obvious. 36.The more cordial the buyer's secretary, the greater the odds that the competition already has the order. 37.In designing any type of construction, no overall dimension can be totaled correctly after 4:30 p.m. on Friday. The correct total will become self-evident at 8:15 a.m. on Monday. 38.Fill what's empty. Empty what's full. And scratch where it itches. 39.All things are possible except skiing through a revolving door. 40.The only perfect science is hind-sight.

37 ©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-37 Murphy’s Technology Laws (Cont’d) 41.Work smarder and not harder and be careful of yor speling. 42.If it's not in the computer, it doesn't exist. 43.If an experiment works, something has gone wrong. 44.When all else fails, read the instructions. 45.If there is a possibility of several things going wrong the one that will cause the most damage will be the one to go wrong. 46.Everything that goes up must come down. 47.Any instrument when dropped will roll into the least accessible corner. 48.Any simple theory will be worded in the most complicated way. 49.Build a system that even a fool can use and only a fool will want to use it. 50.The degree of technical competence is inversely proportional to the level of management. And, always keep in mind that… Murphy was an optimist!


Download ppt "©2004 InfoNetrix LLC All Rights Reserved Worldwide 1-1 PART ONE Executive Market Briefing Michael A. Marullo Principal & Director Strategic Market R&D."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google