1. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 1 CNRS, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM / Météo-France, Toulouse) 2 CNRS, Centre d’Etudes de la BIOsphere (CESBIO, Toulouse, France) Aaron Boone 1, Patricia deRosnay 2, and the ALMIP Working Group AMMA Land surface Model Intercomparison Project

2. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 Goal: Obtain a better understanding of the West African Monsoon (WAM) on daily to inter-annual timescales. AMMA relies on: i)the use of extensive observations, notably multi- sensor remote sensing products, ii) a multi-year field campaign over west Africa, and iii) a coordinated modeling strategy at different spatial and temporal scales. AMMA = African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis * See the AMMA Special Issue of GEWEX News, Feb., 2006

3. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 Importance of the Continental Land surface to the WAM Surface processes which influence the atmosphere and hydrology: Significant Meridional Gradients: - vegetation - soil moisture Large spatial variability: - surface runoff, infiltration, flooded areas - surface fluxes

4. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 ALMIP Science Questions: No one scheme perfect: examine ensemble of models (currently 12): Response of different schemes to scale change Develop a mult-model climatology of « realistic » high resolution soil moisture, surface fluxes, water and energy budget See what improvements needed in SVATs to simulate processes particular to African climate and surface Examine how simple SVATs can simulate spatial distribution and inter-annual variability of vegetation Break various components of complex coupled system into managable portions which can then provide insight into various processes: 1st step  Force LSMs in Offline mode GSWP SnowMIP

5. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 ORCHIDEELMD, Paris, FranceJ. Polcher, T. Orgeval ISBACNRM / Météo France ToulouseA. Boone TESSELECMWF, Reading, UKA. Beljaars, G. Balsamo JULESCEH, Wallingford, UKC. Taylor, P. Harris SETHYSCETP, FranceC. Ottlé, B. Decharme CaBUPMC, FranceA. Ducharne, S. Gascoin IBISISE, Monpellier, FranceC. Delire SSibU. Nantes, France, UCLA, USAI. Poccard-Leclercq, Y. Xue MIKE-SHEU. Copenhagen, DenmarkA. Norgaard, I. Sandholt CLMNCAR, Boulder, CO, USAB. Lamptey SWAPInst. Of Water Problems, Moscow, Russia Y. Gusev, O. Nasonova NOAH(NCEP, USA) CETP, FranceC. Ottlé, B. Decharme Model acronym Institute Contact

6. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 Precipitation (mm day-1) 2004ECOCLIMAP LAI (m2 m-2) month Land Surface Model Soil-Vegetation Parameters ECOCLIMAP – global 1x1 km2, decadal Operatioal NWP, Mesoscale research Large annual variability (« mirrors » rainfall) Single annual cycle

7. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 ECMWF Forecast Product: Lowest model level atmospheric variables  Tair, Qair, Wind, PSurf Vertically integrated fluxes  SWdown, LWdown, Rainf, CRainf Merged Forcing: ECMWF + Satellite based

8. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 MSG Data: 0.6µm, 0.8µm, 1.6µm Solar and View Angles Land/Sea Mask Cloud Mask (SAF-NWC software) Total Column Water Vapour (ECMWF) Ozone Content (Climatology) Land Surface Albedo: Static Map, later AL product [Visibility -> Aerosol Optical Thickness] AMMA-SAT  0.05 deg., 30 min. Began July, 2005 LAND-SAF Downwelling radiative flux products SWdown: B. Geiger

9. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 SWdown, LWdown radiative fluxes MSG (coherent with AMMA-SAT precip.) OSI-SAF  0.10 deg., 3h 2004 LAND-SAF  0.05 deg., 30min 2005+ SAF Radiative flux products: Same tendency as OSI-SAF: monsoon further N than in ECMWF Combine with EPSAT: up through 2006

10. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 Equation 2 EPSAT-SG (Estimation des Pluies par SATellite – Seconde Génération) F. Chopin, M. Dubois, LMD, Paris, France Equation 1 Neural Network MSG Channels SRTM Digital Elevation Model Rainfall probability images (P r ) GPCP1dd rainfall images (I gpcp ) Potential rainfall intensity images (I p ) EPSAT-SG rainfall est. (I e ) Equation 2 Estimated Rainfall Intensity at time t during day d and position a: Final product resolutions: Space resolution : 3 kms Time resolution : 15 minutes 2A25 TRMM precipitation Radar data AMMA-SAT Rainfall product:

11. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 Monthly Average Precipitation Rates (mm day -1 ) 2004 A Boone CNRS/CNRM Recent Study (Jobard et al. 2007): EPSAT best statistical results 2004-6  AGRHYMET Sahelian rain obs JuneJulyAug.Sep. EPSAT ECMWF RFE (CPC)

12. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 Exp 1: Regional 0.5deg, 3h: NWP 2002-2005 (2006) Exp 2: Regional Merged 0.5deg, 3h:2004-2005 (2006) Exp 3: Mesoscale Merged 0.1deg, 1h:2004-2006 Exp 4: Local1-4 sites2004-2006 Analysis and intercomparison  2004-2005 (2006) Repeat Above using « Interactive Vegetation » option Exp. Name: Resolution Time period Experiments:

13. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 Total Evapotranspiration 2004 (JJAS) in mm day-1 Exp1 (ECMWF Precip) Large inter-model differences Total Evapotranspiration 2004 (JJAS) in mm day-1 Exp1 (ECMWF Precip) Large inter-model differences

14. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 Total Evapotranspiration 2004 (JJAS) in mm day-1 Exp1 (ECMWF Precip) Large inter-model differences Total Evapotranspiration 2004 (JJAS) in mm day-1 Exp2 (ECMWF Precip) Large inter-model differences

15. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 Evapotranspiration Difference: Exp2 (Satellite-based forcing) – Exp1 (NWP-based) Northward displacement of active precipitation 50 to 100% increase in Sahel: region with possibly largest atmospheric feedback

16. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 Meridional gradient of Evap: Exp 2 vs Exp 1 Northward shift by several 100 kms Implications for NWP model initialization (e.g. ECMWF) Exp2 2004: Large inter- model scatter  quantity atmopshere « feels »

17. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 Exp2 JJAS 2004 All-SVATs Dominant land class: Coefficient of Variation: Inter-model scatter Large in Sahel  water stress, low average Evap (where coupling is important ?) Large in Forested regions  Canopy Interception differences important Product USERS  give some estimate of inter-model variability

18. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 Exp2 2004 JJAS Multi-Model AVG Water budget terms (mm day-1) DelSoilMoist Runoff Evap Rainf

19. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 DelSoilMoist/Rainf Runoff/Rainf Evap/Rainf Rainf Exp2 2004 JJAS Multi-Model AVG Water budget terms (mm day-1)

20. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 09/84 09/87 09/86 09/00 09/92 09/89 Gourma, Mali September Significant inter- annual vegetation variability Can LSMs model this? * Photos courtesy of CESBIO

21. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 Vegetation/Soil Parameters Atmospheric Forcing ISBA-Ags Biomass (LAI) Turbulent and Radiative fluxes (CO 2 ) Runoff Irrigation Interactive mode Pashtuchak, Peyrillé, Plante, and Boone Rivers, Lakes… Ocean/Sea Inputs:Outputs:

22. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 Vegetation/Soil Parameters Atmospheric Forcing ISBA-Ags Biomass (LAI) Turbulent and Radiative fluxes (CO 2 ) Runoff Irrigation Interactive mode Peyrillé and Boone Rivers, Lakes… Ocean/Sea Coupled (atmosphere) mode

23. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 Exp 1Exp 2 Correlations between 0.8 and 1.0 over a large part of Sahel (where vegetation signal strongest) Exp2 (satellite-based) precipitation  improved LAI prediction (and enhanced Evap) But… Montly LAI misses rapid greenup Forest regions: MODIS quality questionable AND ISBA-Ags needs work! Care must be taken in fully coupled mode!

24. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 ALMIP ongoing: 2006 Forcing to be released and runs using updated forcing (new EPSAT algorithm) to be submitted this summer (Exp2b) Complete regional merged and mesoscale atmospheric forcing data (2004): extend through 2006 Regional scale evaluation data (forcing and for simulations)  comparison with AMSR-E, ALMIP-MEB, TRIP 0.5 deg, GRACE… 2007-8 Mesoscale Forcing  Evaluation of processes using SOP, EOP data 1st step towards ALDAS Collaboration with WAMME (Lau, Xue), AMMA-CROSS (Guichard, Hourdin, et al) Parallel actions at CNRM: Simulate land surface fluxes, soil moisture, vegetation at various scales Compare simulated soil moisture to ARPEGE/assimilation NWP/Mesoscale model initialization: CNRM Perspectives:

25. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 Thank you for Your attention… By M. Nuret, Dakar, Senegal And to the ALMIP Working Group: Anton Beljaars, ECMWF Aaron Boone, CNRM Jan Polcher, LMD Chris Taylor, CEH Phil Harris, CEH Inge Sandholt, U. Copenhagen Anette Norgaard, U. Copenhagen Patricia deRosnay, CESBIO Eric Mougin, CESBIO Laurent Kergoat, CESBIO Agnes Ducharne, UTMC Tristan Orgeval, LMD Yonkang Xue, UCLA Isabelle Poccard-Leclercq, U. Nantes Christine Delire, ISE Bertrand Decharme, CETP Catherine Ottle, CETP

26. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007

27. EXTRA….

28. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 2 Database Land Parameters: ECOCLIMAP Single annual cycle (decad) 12 classes  255 types Effective or multi-tile schemes 1 km, global Applications: used at Météo-France to be used at ECMWF (0.5 deg.)

29. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 Determination of baseline or « minimum » physics (eg. Stomatal resistance) Importance of sub-grid hydrology Importance of soil moisture (on surface energy balance: HAPEX MOBILHY) Better numerical schemes Chance for extensive validation Ability of schemes to simulate carbon cycle Innovations in Sub-grid cold-season processes Impact of changing scale Ability of such models to simulate regional / large scale hydrology

30. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 2 Database Atmospheric Forcing: Data for running an LSM in « offline » mode Spatial scales for the atmospheric forcing datasets

31. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 2 Database ECOCLIMAPSoil, vegetation1 km  0.5 deg(monthly climatology) AMMA- SAT/PRECIP Precip Probability3km  0.05 deg, 15min 2004, 2005 (+?) OSI-SAFSWdown, LWdown0.10 deg., 3h2004 LAND-SAFSWdown, LWdown, TSurf 0.05 deg., 30 min2005+ ECMWFTair, Qair, Wind, PSurf, Rainf, LWdown, SWdown 0.50 deg., 3h2001+ AMMA EOP/SOPFluxes, soil moisture, vegetation (biomass, LAI…) local2004 Mali, Dahra, Niger (2005+) AMSRSoil moisture (surface) 25 km2004… LAND-SAFLST0.05 deg., 30 min2005+ AMMA-SATMODIS LAI0.01 deg, monthly2003+ Forcing Data: Evaluation Data:

32. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 ORCHIDEELMD, Paris, FranceJ. Polcher, T. Orgeval ISBACNRM / Météo France Toulouse A. Boone TESSELECMWF, Reading, UKA. Beljaars JULESCEH, Wallingford, UKC. Taylor, P. Harris SETHYSCETP, FranceC. Ottlé, B. Decharme NSIPPUPMC, FranceA. Ducharne IBIS*ISE, Monpellier, FranceC. Delire SSibU. Nantes, France, UCLA, USA I. Poccard-Leclercq, Y. Xue MIKE-SHEU. CopenhagenA. Norgaard, I. Sandholt NOAH(NCEP, USA) CETP, FranceC. Ottlé, B. Decharme Model acronym Institute Contact * Contact us if you wish to participate… 3 ALMIP description

33. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 2 Database Vadidation/Evaluation of atmospheric forcing? Difference: July-June AMSR-E Microwave sensor « Surface » soil moisture 50 km, 2 passes daily Flagged data below 5-10 N Difference: July – June (averages)

34. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 2 Database Vadidation/Evaluation of atmospheric forcing? Difference: July-June AMSR-E Microwave sensor « Surface » soil moisture 50 km, 2 passes daily Flagged data below 5-10 N Difference: July – June (averages)

35. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 International Land Surface Model Intercomparison Project – Dirmeyer et al. 15 LSMs (NWP, GCM, Hydrology…) Control Exp. Forcing: - ISLSCP parameters - NCEP – hybridized, gauge-corrections Global scale, 1 deg resolution Forcing: 3h, 1982-1995 Evapotranspiration (monthly: mm day-1) 10-year average: 1986-1995 Significant differences!!!  GSWP Global Soil Wetness Project 2 3 ALMIP description

36. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 Long term Observation Period (LOP) 20012005 2006 2007 Enhanced Observing Period (EOP) 0 Special Observing Periods (SOP) 2 31 2010 ECMWF-FCMerged ECMWF-FC, AMMA SAT/PRECIP, EOP-SOP Forcing Parameters 2003 ECOCLIMAP, MODIS On going: - AMMA LSM DB for 2001-2005--- (CNRM) NCC-DB (LMD) 1948-2000: - Analysis of the models sensitivity to the forcing NCC-DB (LMD) 1 Overview

37. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 1 Overview Influence of soil moisture « memory » on the atmosphere Improve regional scale hydrological processes (sub-grid parameterizations, infiltration, flood planes) Determine key processes  vegetation functioning (African ecosystems) Extend vegetation processes to the regional scale Use a multi-scale approach Develop a surface flux and soil moisture « climatology »  used to study coupling with atmosphere, improve assimilation systems… Intercomparison Project (ALMIP) over region (CESBIO and CNRM)

38. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 Equation 2 EPSAT-SG (Estimation des Pluies par SATellite – Seconde Génération) Equation 1 Neural Network MSG Channels SRTM Digital Elevation Model Rainfall probability images (P r ) GPCP1dd rainfall images (I gpcp ) Potential rainfall intensity images (I p ) EPSAT-SG rainfall estimation (I e ) A is a disc of about 125kms radius c A is the centre of A d is the considered day T is the period [d-15days,d+15days] dt 1 corresponds to 1 day dt 2 corresponds to 15 minute da corresponds to 1 MSG pixel Equation 1 Equation 2 Estimated Rainfall Intensity at time t during day d and position a: Final product resolutions: Space resolution : 3 kms Time resolution : 15 minutes 2A25 TRMM precipitation Radar data

39. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 ECMWF Forecast Precipitation: Hovmoller plots

40. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 GSWP 15 LSSs, 1 deg. res. Evap (average  10 years, -20E to 30 E longitude) Inter-LSS Meridional gradient highly variable 3 ALMIP description

41. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 Simulated Offline fluxes: Evapotranspiration ECMWF forcing Merged forcing Evap: Merged - ECMWF 4 Some Results

42. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 ECOCLIMAPSoil, vegetation1 km  0.5 deg(climatology: decad) AMMA-SAT/PRECIPPrecipitation3km  0.05 deg, 15min2004, 2005 (+?) OSI-SAFSWdown, LWdown0.10 deg., 3h2004 LAND-SAFSWdown, LWdown, TSurf0.05 deg., 30 min2005+ ECMWFTair, Qair, Wind, PSurf, Rainf, LWdown, SWdown 0.50 deg., 3h2001+ AMMA EOP/SOPFluxes, soil moisture, vegetation (biomass, LAI…) local2004 Mali, Dahra, Niger (2005+) AMSRSoil moisture (surface)25 km2004… LAND-SAFLST0.05 deg., 30 min2005+ AMMA-SATMODIS LAI0.01 deg, monthly2003+ Forcing: Evaluation:

43. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 2 Database Time (DoY) Coherence between OSI-SAF and AMMA-SAT data e.g. Time series: Summer 2004 Downwelling radiative fluxes precipitation Merged AMMA-SAT, SAF and ECMWF Forcing :

44. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007

47. Gourma, Mali Oueme, Benin Niamey, Niger CATCH window Meso-Super Sites: Regional Scale Domain (0.5deg):

48. American Geophysical Union Meeting, May 22-25, 2007 Vegetation/Soil Parameters Atmospheric Forcing ISBA-Ags Biomass (LAI) Turbulent and Radiative fluxes (CO 2 ) Runoff Irrigation Interactive mode MODIS (2005) LAI Exp1 2005LAI Exp2 2005 Pashtuchak, Peyrillé, Plante, and Boone