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Luci2 Urban Simulation Model John R. Ottensmann Center for Urban Policy and the Environment Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis.

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Presentation on theme: "Luci2 Urban Simulation Model John R. Ottensmann Center for Urban Policy and the Environment Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis."— Presentation transcript:

1 luci2 Urban Simulation Model John R. Ottensmann Center for Urban Policy and the Environment Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis

2 luci2 Urban Simulation Model What the Model Does  Simulates urban growth for Central Indiana  Forecasts employment change by ZIP code for major industry groups  Separately simulates residential and employment- related development for mile-square grid cells  Allows users to create and compare scenarios reflecting policy choices and assumptions about future development

3 luci2 Urban Simulation Model Central Indiana 2000 Percent Urban

4 luci2 Urban Simulation Model Central Indiana Data Sources  LandSAT satellite images for 1985, 1993, and 2000  Land cover classification by Jeff Wilson  Employment by ZIP code for 1995, 2000  Indiana Department of Workforce Development (ES-202) data

5 luci2 Urban Simulation Model Estimation of Land Use  Reclassification of classified land cover data  Developed set of classifiers based on…  Land cover in vicinity of each pixel  Population and housing units from census  Road network

6 luci2 Urban Simulation Model Predictive Equations in the Model (9)  Employment change for four industry groups by ZIP code  Probabilities of residential and employment-related development by grid cell  Densities of residential and employment-related development  Journey to work

7 luci2 Urban Simulation Model Prediction of Development  Prediction of probability of conversion of land to residential and employment-related uses  Based on random utility theory  Estimated aggregated logit models  Dependent variables logits of proportions of land converted 1993-2000  Prediction of densities of development  Estimated using 2000 data

8 luci2 Urban Simulation Model Predictors of Probability of Residential Development  Accessibility to employment and employment change  Availability of water and sewer  Distances to interstate interchanges and other four-lane highways  Proportion residential in 3x3 neighborhood and it square (logistic growth trend)  Logit proportion converted to residential in preceding period (persistence)  ISTEP scores for school districts

9 luci2 Urban Simulation Model Accessibility to Employment

10 luci2 Urban Simulation Model How luci2 Simulates Urban Development  Works in 5-year simulation periods  Simulation driven by exogenous, user- specified population growth for entire region  Predicts employment change by industry group for ZIP codes  Predicts employment-related and residential development

11 luci2 Urban Simulation Model Prediction of Employment- Related Development  Predicts employment-related land use per employee by ZIP code  Predicts probability of conversion of land to employment-related uses by grid cell  Allocates employment-related development within each ZIP code to grid cells with highest probabilities

12 luci2 Urban Simulation Model Prediction of Residential Development  Predicts probability of conversion of land to residential use  Predicts population density  Adjusts probabilities to accommodate specified population growth

13 luci2 Urban Simulation Model Use of Scenarios in luci2  Purpose not to produce “best” forecast but alternative scenarios  Scenarios can reflect policy choices, including restrictions on development on certain lands, utility expansion, densities, urban growth boundaries  Scenarios can reflect alternative assumptions about factors influencing development, including population growth and importance of accessibility to employment

14 luci2 Urban Simulation Model The Current trends Scenario  luci2 starts with the Current trends scenario  Assumes population growth at the rate from 1990-2000  Uses all model parameters as estimated for the period prior to 2000  Assumes no changes to policies from recent period

15 luci2 Urban Simulation Model luci2 Simulation Results  Results provided for active and comparison scenarios  Maps show land urban and change and generalized land uses  Tables provide summary results for region for land use and population  Tables provide urban land and employment and their change by county

16 luci2 Urban Simulation Model Enhanced User Capabilities  Automatic output of more detailed simulation results Capability to add user scenarios  Restrictions on development in specified areas  Restrictions on development  Minimum or maximum densities  Areas to be provided with utility service  New transportation alternatives

17 luci2 Urban Simulation Model luci2 as a General-Purpose Urban Simulation Model  Models can be implemented for different areas…  With different datasets…  Using regular or irregular simulation zones (including TAZs)…  Using distances or travel times…  For models of varying complexity  Could implement LUCI and LUCI/T in luci2

18 luci2 Urban Simulation Model LUCI/T Model  Developed for Central Indiana Suburban Transportation & Mobility Study  Starting point original LUCI model  9-county area surrounding Indianapolis  Uses travel times from travel demand model to calculate accessibility

19 luci2 Urban Simulation Model Comparison of Baseline and Maximum Change Alternatives  Simulations to 2025, 2040  Baseline: existing and planned transportation improvements  Maximum change: 360º circumferential limited-access highway in outer part of area (outer belt)  Use of LUCI/T forecast development for 2025 travel demand model

20 luci2 Urban Simulation Model Differences between Baseline and Maximum Change Traffic Forecasts

21 luci2 Urban Simulation Model LUCI/T Baseline and Maximum Change Forecast of Urban Change to 2025 Baseline (Minimum Change)Maximum Change

22 luci2 Urban Simulation Model LUCI/T Differences between Baseline and Maximum Change Forecasts

23 luci2 Urban Simulation Model Possible Reasons for Small Differences  In general, the periphery of significant urban development does not extend out to outer belt by 2025 (or 2040)  Households will find locations at urban periphery more accessible to employment than locations near outer belt  Major effect on travel times is to reduce times between locations near outer belt, but those have limited employment

24 luci2 Urban Simulation Model luci2 Indiana Statewide Model  Simulates residential and employment- related development for 4,579 TAZs in INDOT travel demand model  Simulates local-service employment growth for TAZs  Uses travel times from travel demand model

25 luci2 Urban Simulation Model Integration of luci2 with INDOT Travel Demand Model  Simulation starts with 2000 travel times from the travel demand model  Simulates employment growth and urban development for 2005  Results used by travel demand model to simulate 2005 travel, travel times  New travel times used by luci2 to simulate growth and development for 2010  Process continues to 2030

26 luci2 Urban Simulation Model luci2 Indiana Statewide Model


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