1. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:1 Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing Class 3: Hazard Assessment Prof. S. M. Pandit

2. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:2 Hazard Assessment Agenda –Hazard Evaluation –Case study - Hazards and risks in Manufacturing –Stages of Hazard Identification and Risk Evaluation –Assessment Tools: Product Process Facility

3. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:3 Types of Hazards Other hazards: Civil Disturbances, Geological Events Epidemics, Infestation Fires, Meteorological, Hydrological hazards Technological hazards –Chemical Spills –Structural failure –Gas Explosions, Leaks –Oil Spills –Radiological, Nuclear Ref: http://life.csu.edu.au/hazards/topics.html

4. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:4 Structural failure hazard assessment Hazard Evaluation - 1 Getting data –Surveys, Designed experiments, Modeling and simulation

5. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:5 Hazard Evaluation - 2 Assign scores to factors / sub-factors Estimate relation between score & variables Compare alternatives

6. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:6 Case Study Waste Stream Hazards (Process related), also, Product related & facility related Product Manufacturing Activity Waste Streams Fuel combustion Energy Chips Cutting Fluids Sulphur Nitrogen Carbon Monoxide Carbon particles Dust Energy Heat Water contamination Mist generation Acid Rain Air Toxins Environmental hazards

7. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:7 SolidsLiquidsGasesAerosolsEnergy Hazard Scoring Machining Wastes Solids (Chips) Liquids (Cutting Fluid) Gases (Effluent gases) Aerosols (Mist) Energy (Heat) Hazard Scoring Environmental hazard Risk Assessment Hazard & Risk

8. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:8 Risk Space Observable - Oil well Explosion Not Observable - CO concentration rise Controllable - Manufacturing process parameters Uncontrollable - Nature Risk: The probability of “suffering harm” from a product Twin dimensions: Contaminant concentration, Duration of exposure

9. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:9 Risk - 1 Risk Biological System Damage Aesthetic Degradation Damage to Planetary Systems Product Process Facility

10. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:10 Risk - 2 Risk Assessment: Hazard Identification “Dose” Evaluation Probability of undesirable impact due to “dose” Exposure determination RISK MANAGEMENT

11. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:11 Risk - 3 1 Log Probit model 2 Multistage model 1 P(d) =  log 10 d ) 2 P(d) = 1 - e -[   +   d+   +d 2 +... +  r d r ]

12. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:12 Risk - 4 Multi stage model “r” is the number of stages through which the hazard is propagated, and  ’s are constant weighting factors. These are relatively easy to visualize, although the weighting factors have a strong influence on the calculated “risk.”

13. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:13 Risk-5

14. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:14 Risk-6 Exposure Determination Risk Impact I=N P(d) where N is the number of exposed people

15. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:15 Risk - 7 Log - Probit modeling and analysis is discussed comprehensively by Charles Annis at http://www.statisticalengineering.com/index.html. It uses Generalized Linear Modeling (GLC) where the binary nature of the hazard (either there or not there) is taken into account. An application to fracture cracks is discussed.

16. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:16 Risk - 8 Radiation Risks {Obtained by multiplying by appropriate carcinogenic factors for various modes of exposure http://omega.lbl.gov/select/risk.htm

17. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:17 Risk - 9 Example: Radiation risk due to ingestion, inhalation and dermal exposure summed and plotted for individual with assumed lifetime and exposure duration

18. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:18 Risk - 10 Comparison of alternatives

19. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:19 Risk - 11

20. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:20 Assessment Tools - 1 Life Cycle Assessment: (Goal - Understand & Improve) Inventory Analysis Impact Analysis Improvement Analysis Assessment Tools Product Process Facility

21. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:21 Assessment Tools - 2 Environmentally Responsible Product Matrix Environmental Concern Life - Cycle Stage M {stage(i),concern(j)}

22. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:22 Assessment Tools - 3 The sum of all the elements, which provides an indication of the “Product Rating.” Matrix elements are estimated on the basis of underlying checklists and protocols, and assume a value between 0 and 1. R EPRT =  i  j M i,j

23. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:23 Assessment Tools - 4 Target Plots (From Env. Resp. Prod. matrix) 1,1

24. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:24 Assessment Tools - 5 Environmentally responsible process matrix - similar analysis. (Life cycle stage / Environmental concern) Environmentally Responsible facility matrix: Facility activity (site selection, maintenance) vs Environmental Concern

25. Environmentally Conscious Design & Manufacturing (ME592) Date: March 10, 2000 Slide:25 Homework #1 The following problems are out of the textbook “Industrial Ecology” 1. Problem 1.1 (Answer: 0.9) 2. Problem 1.2 (Answer: 3.77million) 3. Problem 1.3 (Answer: 3.924 million) 4. Problem 1.4 Answer: Country Eco 2 (Pg/yr)GNP/capitaEco 2 /dollar of GNP(10 3 g) Brazil0.53 29501.22 China1.22 3702.91 India0.56 3102.13 Nigeria0.15 2600.573 United States2.38 21,0000.458