1. Housekeeping Purpose and goals Meeting times Syllabus Texts –Online Http://cfpub2.epa.gov/ncea/raf/recordisplay.cfm?deid=12460 Next class reading materials Course outline Other issues?

2. What is Risk? What is Ecological Risk Assessment?

3. Definition The noun "risk" has 4 senses in WordNet. 1. hazard, jeopardy, peril, risk -- (a source of danger; a possibility of incurring loss or misfortune; "drinking alcohol is a health hazard") 2. risk, peril, danger -- (a venture undertaken without regard to possible loss or injury; "he saw the rewards but not the risks of crime"; "there was a danger he would do the wrong thing") 3. risk, risk of infection -- (the probability of becoming infected given that exposure to an infectious agent has occurred) 4. risk, risk of exposure -- (the probability of being exposed to an infectious agent)

4. Risk Perception Quiz a.Riding a bicycle to and from your suburban home to work, a distance of 20km each way, each working day for 4 years. b. Working for one year in a coal mine (assuming a 40 hour working week). c. Living 4 km from a nuclear reactor for 12 months. d. Eating peanut butter sandwiches for lunch three times a week for 20 years. e. Drinking two glasses of wine, twice per weekend, for 10 years. The number of additional deaths per year for the example above are: a. 3840 (assuming 240 working days per year), b. 1920, c. 0.02, d. 78 (assuming 1 tablespoon per serve of sandwiches), e. 520 (assuming four glasses make ½ litre). So, the ‘right’ order is c. (least risky), d., e., b., a. (most risky).

5. Risky Activities? Activities that increase chance of death by one in a million per year (after Wilson 1979). Activities Cause of death Smoking 1.4 cigarettes Cancer, heart disease Spending 1 hour in a coal mine Black lung disease Traveling 15 km by bicycle Accident Traveling 500 km by car Accident Flying 1500 km by jet Accident Living 2 months in brick bldg Cancer from radioactivity One chest X-ray Cancer from radiation Living 2 months w/a smoker Cancer, heart disease Eating 40 tblspns peanut butter Liver cancer Living 50 yrs w/in 8 km nuclear reactor Cancer from radiation (accident) Living 20 years near a PVC plant Cancer from vinyl chloride Drinking Miami water for 1 year Cancer from chloroform Drinking ½ liter of wine Cirrhosis of the liver

6. What is ecological risk assessment? - Ecological risk assessment is the practice of determining the nature and likelihood of effects of our actions on animals, plants, and the environment. - EPA - Ecological risk assessment is a process for evaluating the likelihood that adverse ecological effects may occur or are occurring as a result of exposure to one or more stressors. - It is a process used to systematically evaluate and organize data, information, assumptions, and uncertainties in order to help understand and predict the relationships between stressors and ecological effects in a way that is useful for environmental decision making. An assessment may involve: Chemical stressors Physical stressors Biological stressors one stressor or many stressors - Ecological risk assessments are developed within a risk management context to evaluate human-induced changes that are considered undesirable. Changes often considered undesirable are those that alter important structural or functional characteristics or components of ecosystems.

7. What is ecological risk assessment? Descriptions of adverse effects can be: 1)Qualitative judgments 2)Quantitative probabilities ERAs can be 1)Predictive 2)Retrospective 3)Predictive AND retrospective Other closely related terminology: 1)Hazard assessment 2)Comparative risk assessment 3)Cumulative ecological risk assessment 4)Environmental impact statement

8. What is ERA used for? - Industry, government agencies, policy makers, citizens, and legislators use ERA to support environmental management decisions. Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) Technical Issue Paper (TIP) 1997. What are ERA's basic concepts? - Ecological risks are 1) estimated from the relationship between exposure and effects, and 2) made with varying degrees of uncertainty.

9. Ecological risk assessments evaluate two basic elements: 1. Exposure is the interaction of stressors with receptors. Measures of exposure can include concentrations of contaminants or physical changes in habitat. Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) Technical Issue Paper (TIP) 1997. EXPOSUREEFFECTS EXPOSUREEFFECTS RISK 2. The analysis of effects evaluates changes in the nature and magnitude of effects as exposure change.

10. How is ERA done? Ecological risk assessments include: 1)Problem formulation: clearly defining the problem 2)Analysis: characterizing potential or existing exposure to stressors and their effects 3)Risk characterization: integrating and evaluating exposure and effects information Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) Technical Issue Paper (TIP) 1997.

12. How does ERA relate to decision-making? - Ecological risk assessment is one input to environmental management decisions. Other inputs include stakeholder concerns, availability of technical solutions, benefits, equity, costs, legal mandates, and political issues. What are ERAs designed to protect? - Ecological risk assessments may address any of a variety of environmental properties ranging from the survival of individual members of an endangered species to the productivity of the community in a stream or the biological diversity of an entire region. Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) Technical Issue Paper (TIP) 1997.

13. Won't protection of humans also result in protection of the environment? - Ecological receptors can receive more exposure to contaminants in the environment and can be more sensitive than humans. How are ERA predictions useful? - Although there are various sources of uncertainty in ERA, we can predict many effects with confidence. Even when uncertainties are high, risk assessments with proper scientific review and consensus provide the best summary of the state of knowledge. Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) Technical Issue Paper (TIP) 1997.

14. What is the future of ERA? - Anticipated improvements in ERA will include development of standard tools and approaches and more effective links to risk management. Increasingly, ERA will address issues concerning its application in the management of land and natural resources. Some challenges facing ERA include the following: Integrating the concerns of stakeholders and risk managers with the scientific knowledge of risk assessors Conducting risk assessments that encompass large areas and involve multiple stressors Moving beyond effects on individual organisms and species to predicting changes in populations and ecosystems Communicating ecological risks to stakeholders Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) Technical Issue Paper (TIP) 1997.