1. The Dynamic North American Meat and Livestock Market Leland Southard Midwest/Great Plains/Western Outlook Conference Indianapolis, Indiana August 14, 2003

2. North American Markets Background Beef/Cattle Pork/Hogs Poultry Issues Problems

3. Background World Trade Liberalization Expanding World Meat Trade Changing North American Policies Country Comparative Advantage North American Free Trade Agreement Restricted Northwest Feeder Project Lingering Issues

4. Population

5. Beef and Veal Production *Pre-BSE Expectations

6. Beef Exports as Percentage of Production

7. Beef Imports as a Percentage of Consumption

8. Major Exporter‘s Share of U.S. Beef Imports

9. Major Importer’s Share of U.S. Beef Exports

10. Cattle Exports to United States

12. U.S. Cattle Exports

13. Pork Production

14. Pork Exports as a Percentage of Production

15. Major Importer’s Share of U.S. Pork Exports

16. Exporter’s Share of Mexican Pork Imports (Source: USDA-FAS)

17. Importer’s Market Share of U.S. Pork Imports

18. Hog Exports to United States

19. Broiler Trade Export Share to Mexico-----6-7 percent Tariffs on poultry parts contentious with Mexico Export share to Canada-----3-5 percent Quebec poultry industry insists on protection from U.S. market Source: USDA-ERS

20. Importer’s Share of U.S. Turkey Exports

21. Importer’s Share of U.S. Shell Egg Exports

22. Confirmed Disease Problems United States Exotic Newcastle Disease Avian Influenza Mexico Classical Swine Fever Tuberculosis Exotic Newcastle Disease Canada BSE

23. Conclusions North American Meat and Livestock Markets are integrated. Market shares are significant enough that events in one country affect markets in the other countries. Trade issues should be viewed in a North American context. Diseases and domestic industry protection issues will continue to shadow the markets.

24. Contact us www.ers.usda.gov/publications/outlookreports southard@ers.usda.gov