1. 100 Years Ago There were only 8,000 cars in the U.S., and only 144 miles of paved roads. The maximum speed limit in most cities was 10 mph. Road Maintenance and the Changing Climate Don MacIver, Heather Auld, Joan Klaassen, Neil Comer

2. MEETING TAXPAYERS EXPECTATIONS: KNOWLEDGE AND TECHNOLOGY Increasing population and demographics More affluence and property value Increasing urbanization and 24/7

3. Impacts and Adaptation Science Solutions: providing assistance by making … An adjustment in response to actual or expected stimuli An adjustment in response to actual or expected stimuli Building our adaptive capacity by improving our adaptation science and partnerships Making decisions and acting sustainably in a complex and changing world Canada Customs Red River Emerson Red River Valley Flood RADARSAT Satellite Image Floodway Winnipeg Brunkild Dyke Floodway Inlet St. Agathe Rosenort Morris

4. Adaptation Deficit is increasing

5. Global Costs of Great Natural Disasters (1950-2000) in US$ Billions, including economic and insured losses (Great natural disasters defined as > 100 deaths and/or US$ 100M in claims) ADAPTATION DEFICIT

6. Source: ICLR, based on data from IBC and Emergency Preparedness Canada Increasing Natural Disaster Losses Is Vulnerability of Communities Increasing?? billions of 1999 $

7. Adaptation Options Bear the loss (eg. liability) Prevent the effects (eg. ice removal) Modify the events (eg. salt/sand) Change Behaviour (eg. warnings) Research – (eg. science & technology) Education & outreach

8. Invest in disaster resilience

9. The Changing Climate

10. Changes in temperature are unevenly distributed Degrees C Trends for 1950-98

11. Trends in extremes X. Zhang. B. Bonsal, É. Mekis, A. Shabbarand L. Vincent Less intense cold Trend in 5 th percentile of daily T min (Winters, 1900-1998)

12. Ontario GETTING WARMER NON-LINEAR WARMER LITTLE CHANGE

13. Canada is becoming wetter Percent change in precipitation 1950-98

14. Ontario GETTING WETTER NON-LINEAR WETTER

15. Has the Climate Been Changing in the Georgian Bay Area? Since 1895… Annual Temps warmed ~ 0.5-1.0  C (Min Temps up to 2  C) Annual Precip increased Up to 20% Long term Climate Stations

16. Has the Climate Been Changing in the Long Point Area? Since 1935… Annual Temps warmed ~ 0.3  C (Min Temps up to 0.8  C) Annual Precip increased ~ 5-10% Lake Erie

17. Source: Dianne MacIver, based on daily newspaper archives from the Dufferin County Museum and Archives

18. Small Increases = Escalating Infrastructure Damages “small increases in weather and climate extremes have the potential to bring large increases in damages to existing infrastructure”

19. DYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE: Energy, Moisture, Momentum RCTO Surface Weather Maps EC Radar Imagery/ Derived Products Satellite Imagery July 9/1800 GMT April 21/0000 GMT Britt CAPPI Aug 1/ 0025Z

20. Visible impacts with extremes… with extremes… Saguenay flooding (1996), 26 millions m 3 of water and 9 millions tons of debris The Great Ice Storm (1998), 1,5 millions customers without electricity for up to 30 days Waves and storms floods forest fires droughts, heat spells

21. Toronto August 19, 2005 Finch Avenue During and After the Storm

22. Impacts of Atmospheric Hazards on Wind Energy Generation

23. What’s Happening, and What Can We Expect GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

24. We are not the first to worry about climate change “The picture’s pretty bleak, gentlemen…The world’s climates are changing, the mammals are taking over, and we all have a brain about the size of a walnut.” Larson, 1985

25. Cautious Increasing Confidence International science has provided sound advice for policy discussions 1990 1992 1995 1997 2001 First Report Second Report Third Report Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

26. Scientists have studied the relationship between greenhouse gas concentrations and climate for more than a century

27. Highest concentration in last 400,000 years CO2 Concentration (ppmv) Because humans are changing the composition of the atmosphere

28. A number of human factors may have affected our climate

29. Modelled response to all forcings agrees best with observations

30. THE CHANGING CLIMATE

31. Mitigation will slow down the rate and magnitude of change, but the need to adapt is unavoidable

33. December-January-February Mean Temperature Changes 2020

34. December-January-February Mean Temperature Changes 2080

35. December-January-February % Change in Precipitation 2020

36. December – January – February % Change in Precipitation 2080

37. Global Climate Model Projections for the 2050s for the Georgian Bay Area Annual Mean Temps Warming 2.2 – 4.0  C Annual Mean Precip Increasing 2.5 – 12% Changes relative to 1961-1990 Baseline Climate Scenario data from CGCM2 and HadCM3

38. Global and Regional Simulations of Snowpack NCAR

39. Climate Change: Managing Hazards

40.  Increased frequency, severity of drought  Increases in tropical storms/hurricane wind and precipitation intensity  More extreme maximum temperatures (less extreme mins)  More intense, more frequent, longer lasting heat waves  More intense, more frequent precipitation events CLIMATE CHANGE Changes in Extremes Very Likely Likely  Increased risk extreme events such as tornadoes, hail, lightning, ice storms

41. Projections of changes in average Canadian extreme 24-hour rainfall events that can be expected to recur once every 10, 20, 40, or 80 years. (Canadian Model, CGCM1, with Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases) Projected Changes in Canadian Extreme Precipitation 209020501985 ~ 75 mm

42. Risk of more severe storms

43.  Involves assessment of risks to weather hazards: FogLightning Heavy RainHeavy Snow HurricanesWind Storms Extreme Heat / Cold Ice Storms DroughtTornadoes Extreme Air Quality Events Ontario Emergency Management Act Weather Hazard Risk Assessment (Vulnerability Assessment)

44. Hazards Website: Hazards Website: http://www.hazards.ca

45. Source: EMO, 2003 Hazard and Impact Risk Assessment (HIRA) Community Risk Assessment Grid HELPING MUNICIPALITIES ADAPT

46. Ontario MOE, 2004 Ozone & Hot Days Cold Nights 1-Day Rainfall Hot Days >30C Trends in Climatic Indicators Temperature, Precipitation, Air Quality Trends now included… soon, climate change projections

47. Atmospheric Hazards - Selection Results Map:.Ontario South Boreal(2300) Selected 586 places on this map Parameters: Parameters: Hail Frequency in Ontario (Etkin) between 0.50 and 2.00 # Days/Year and Tornado Frequency in Ontario (Newark) between 0.80 and 2.40 # Events/Year Moderate-High Hail Frequencies AND Moderate-High Tornado Frequencies

48. Ice Storm ‘98  Canada’s most costly ($) weather disaster ever  Up to 95 mm of freezing rain accumulation in 3 separate “storms” over 1 st week January  Impacted 4 provinces; 7 states  1 million households without power at peak  Collapsed communication towers, electrical transmission/distribution systems, phone lines  Deaths: 28 in Canada; 19 in U.S.

49. Ice Storm ’98 was Ontario Ice Storm of: Greatest Duration Areal Extent Ice Accumulation Impacts (and hydro downtime) Source: Klaassen et al., 2003 Ice Storm ‘98 24 Ice Storms (Ontario: 1844- 2002) (Ontario: 1844- 2002)Duration 6 days (3 “events”) 12 hrs – 4 days Areal Extent 110,000 km 2 4,000 - 90,000 km 2 Ice Accumulation 95 mm 30 to 70-80 mm Maximum Hydro Downtime 3 ½ weeks <1 day to 2 weeks

50. Tracks of Major Ice Storms which impacted Southern/Eastern Ontario During the period 1948-2002 Ice Storm ‘98

51. Ice Storm Conclusions….  Southern Ontario has been on “snow end” of major North American ice storms in PAST…  Great Lakes likely moderate risks near shorelines  Projected increases in freezing rain events with climate change – especially eastern and northern Ontario  Societal vulnerability ( ie. adaptation deficit) to ice storms has already increased, and likely will continue to increase in future

52. City of Ottawa By-Law … Winter Road and Sidewalk Maintenance

53. Ottawa Trends … Observations Snow decreasing Rain increasing

54. Total Annual Freezing Rain Hours (Days) for Ontario Stations (1953-2001) 6 (3) 5 (2) 6 (2) 22 (7) 12 (4) 8 (3) 24 (8) 10 (4) 14 (5) 24 (7) 14 (5) 22 (7) OTTAWA MAX 37 (10) 17 (5) MIN 98

55. Trends in Occurrence of Freezing Rain?? 14 Ontario stations, Montreal (1953-2001) 12 U.S. Great Lakes region sites (1973-2000)  Risk same or slight decrease in S Ont and Central Ont along shorelines  Increasing trends in E Ont and N Ont Great Lakes influence on freezing rain occurrence?  DECREASED frequency shores Lk Ontario, Lake Erie 98

56. Power Line Climatological Design Criteria CSA/CEA design radial ice amounts (mm on 1 inch conductor)  Design criteria of 25-30 mm for much of southern Ontario – less in northern Ontario  Study showed risk of major power outages increases when Freezing rain amounts > ~30 mm  Potential for long outages/”community disasters” and emergency shelters when Freezing rain amounts > ~40 mm  Eastern Ontario most at risk for transmission line failures, communication tower collapses

57. Increased Vulnerability to Ice Storms with Climate Change? Based on: CGCM2 A2 >= 6 Hrs Frzg Rain>= 4 Hrs Frzg Rain

59. (preliminary) Observed Increases in Freeze-Thaw Cycles?

60. Changes in Climate & Spring Weight Restrictions (SWRs) (lower weight required in thaw periods) Earlier spring weight restrictions

61. Our climate is already changing – community specific Particularly vulnerable to Climate extremes and Creeping Changes CLIMATE CHANGE will have significant impacts on all aspects of life: Greater expectations along with aging population and property We will need to: ADAPT to reduce adaptation deficit, and strengthen human health and safety by improving our prediction, prevention, design and operational capacities Reduce our GHG emissions to slow the rate of CC In Conclusion....