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Veit and Lewis 1996. Am. Nat. 148(2):255-274. Allee Effect & Demographic Stochasticity? At each time step, 50% chance of birth, 50% chance of death 1.

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Presentation on theme: "Veit and Lewis 1996. Am. Nat. 148(2):255-274. Allee Effect & Demographic Stochasticity? At each time step, 50% chance of birth, 50% chance of death 1."— Presentation transcript:

1 Veit and Lewis 1996. Am. Nat. 148(2):255-274

2 Allee Effect & Demographic Stochasticity? At each time step, 50% chance of birth, 50% chance of death 1 100 Time 1 0

3 Allee Effect & Demographic Stochasticity What is mean lambda for an infinitely large population? 1 because MM mates with FF. What is mean lambda for population size = 2? 0.5 because MM and FF do not mate. At each time step, 50% chance of male, 50% chance of female Each breeding pair produces two offspring, then die. M,M M,F F,M F,F M,F

4 Sea Turtle Management Eggs, Hatchlings Novice Breeders Juveniles Mature Breeders Sub-Adults

5 Sea Turtle Management Eggs, Hatchlings Novice Breeders Juveniles Mature Breeders Sub-Adults

6 Snow Goose Management Eggs, Hatchlings Juveniles Breeders (Age > 2)

7 Deaths l x = f x / f 0 d x = l x - l x+1 q x = d x / l x

8 Survivorship Graphs http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/291/5508/1491

9 Births Mean number of female (or reproductive) offspring produced per female (or reproductive) individual. Represents mean offspring produced for females that have survived to year “x”. Agebxbx 0 (to 1)0 1 (to 2)1.1 2 (to 3)3.5 3 (to 4).7

10 Births What would the birth schedule look like for Pacific salmon? Agebxbx 0 (to 1) 1 (to 2) 2 (to 3) 3 (to 4)

11 Births What would a possible birth schedule look like for Pacific salmon? Agebxbx 0 (to 1)0 1 (to 2)0 2 (to 3)0 3 (to 4)1000

12 R0R0 “Net reproductive rate” Mean number of female offspring produced per female over her lifetime Mean number of reproductive offspring produced per reproductive individual over its lifetime

13 Can We Calculate R 0 From b x Mean number of female offspring produced per female golden lion tamarin. Agebxbx 0 (to 1)0 1 (to 2)1.1 2 (to 3)3.5 3 (to 4).7

14 Can We Calculate R 0 From b x Mean number of female offspring produced per female golden lion tamarin. NO! Represents mean offspring produced for females that have survived to year “x”. Agebxbx 0 (to 1)0 1 (to 2)1.1 2 (to 3)3.5 3 (to 4).7

15 R0R0

16 Calculate R 0 for a population of tamarins in which 50% of the females survive to the breeding season each year, starting one year after birth, and then produces 6 offspring (3 females) per year. This continues until the end of their 3 rd breeding season, at which time all survivors die of old age. xlxlx bxbx lxbxlxbx 0 1 2 3 4 R0R0

17 Calculate R 0 for a population of tamarins in which 50% of the females survive to the breeding season each year, starting one year after birth, and then produces 6 offspring (3 females). This continues until the end of their 3 rd breeding season, at which time all survivors die of old age. xlxlx bxbx lxbxlxbx 01 1.5 2.25 3.125 40 R0R0

18 Calculate R 0 for a population of tamarins in which 50% of the females survive to the breeding season each year, starting one year after birth, and then produces 6 offspring (3 females). This continues until the end of their 3 rd breeding season, at which time all survivors die of old age. xlxlx bxbx lxbxlxbx 010 1.53 2.253 3.1253 400 R0R0

19 Calculate R 0 for a population of tamarins in which 50% of the females survive to the breeding season each year, starting one year after birth, and then produces 6 offspring (3 females). This continues until the end of their 3 rd breeding season, at which time all survivors die of old age. xlxlx bxbx lxbxlxbx 0100 1.531.5 2.253.75 3.1253.375 4000 R0R0

20 Calculate R 0 for a population of tamarins in which 50% of the females survive to the breeding season each year, starting one year after birth, and then produces 6 offspring (3 females). This continues until the end of their 3 rd breeding season, at which time all survivors die of old age. xlxlx bxbx lxbxlxbx 0100 10.531.5 20.2530.75 30.12530.375 4000 R 0 =2.625

21 Growth Rates Population increases if r > 0, lambda >1, R 0 > ? Population is constant if r = 0, lambda =1, R 0 = ? Population declines if r < 0, lambda < 1, or R 0 < ?

22 R 0 vs. λ R 0 defines population growth per generation. λ defines population growth for a given time step. R 0 = λ where 1 time step = 1 generation.

23 Mean Generation Time (G) and r Mean age of all reproducing females Mean age of mothers of all newborn females Mean time between birth of a mother and all her offspring


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