1. Hurricanes Smoking Guns of Climate Change or random occurrences?

2. Atlantic Hurricane Formation Low pressure centers form over Sahara desert and may get amplified as they cross open ocean Amplification depends critically on SST and available moisture in the atmosphere Must also have favorable wind conditions (light winds aloft) and weak wind shear

3. Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)

4. Frequency Mimics AMO

5. Land Falls

6. One Good Simulation  Using real fluid dynamics  predicted effect is relatively small in the average but the tails are important!

7. Difficulties Tropical cyclone wind-speed monitoring has changed dramatically over the last few decades leading to difficulties in determining accurate trends. Tropical cyclone wind-speed monitoring has changed dramatically over the last few decades leading to difficulties in determining accurate trends. There is an observed multi-decadal variability of tropical cyclones in some regions whose causes, whether natural, anthropogenic or a combination, are currently being debated. This variability makes detecting any long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity difficult.. There is an observed multi-decadal variability of tropical cyclones in some regions whose causes, whether natural, anthropogenic or a combination, are currently being debated. This variability makes detecting any long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity difficult..

8. More Difficulties There is an inconsistency between the small changes in wind-speed projected by theory and modeling versus large changes reported by some observational studies. There is an inconsistency between the small changes in wind-speed projected by theory and modeling versus large changes reported by some observational studies. Large regional variations exist in methods used to monitor tropical cyclones. Also, most regions have no measurements by instrumented aircraft. These significant limitations will continue to make detection of trends difficult. Large regional variations exist in methods used to monitor tropical cyclones. Also, most regions have no measurements by instrumented aircraft. These significant limitations will continue to make detection of trends difficult.

9. But, this may be a diagnostic

10. Track Density Analysis