1. Stefán Ólafsson University of Iceland Nordic Conference on Innovation in Vocational Rehabilitation Nordic Council of Ministers, Reykjavík, April 2005 Work and Activation in the Icelandic Welfare State: An International Comparison

2. Contents Work and activity in Iceland in an International Comparison –Employment participation –Retirement –Disability General character of the Icelandic Model Changing environment in Iceland and growth of disability pensioners Policy changes in the West –From Passive to Active Policies Policy Outcomes: Resisting Marginalization

3. Work and Activity: Iceland in Comparison

4. Employment Participation % males and females, at working age

5. Female Work Participation % of females, at working age

6. Senior Participation People aged 55-64, at work, year 2003 Near absence of early retirement in Iceland

7. Senior Participation Average age of retirement 1997-2002 OECD Society at a Glance 2005

8. Active for Work? In work or seeking work, 2003

9. Activation and Disability Prevalence OECD 2005 and 2003

10. Disability and early retirement recipiency rates % of working-age population OECD Employment Outlook 2003

11. Disability Prevalence in the Nordic Countries 1995-2002 Disability pensioners as % of ages 16-64 Nososko 2004

12. General character of the Icelandic Welfare Model

13. Icelandic Welfare Model Iceland has a mixed welfare system: Welfare services – Similar as in Scandinavia State hospitals – health care State schools – public housing system Day care services Social services other Social security – Anglo-Saxon influences Rather low benefits Great use of income-testing Poverty alleviation aimed Equalization effects not as large as in Scandinavia Emphasis on self-help in the culture

14. Social Expenditures as % of GDP OECD 2001

15. USA Germany Scandinavia Iceland Welfare goals obtained: Insurance coverageSmall Considerable LargeLarge Quality of benefitsLow Class-specificLargeLow Use of means-testingLarge LimitedLimitedLarge Public welfare services (health, day care...Small SmallLargeLarge Extent of poverty in societyLarge MediumSmallSmall-med Equality of living conditionsLow MediumLargeLarge Equality of sexesMedium LowLargeLarge Effect of class structureLarge Large-medSmallSmall Quality of 3 Welfare Regimes and Iceland Comparative overview Scandinavia obtains welfare goals best – by far

16. Changing Environment in Iceland

17. Higher Unemployment Level during the 1990s

18. Increasing Prevalence of Disability in Iceland

19. Relationship Between Unemployment and Disability Prevalence

21. Increasing Long-Term Unemployment in Iceland during the 1990s

22. Relationship Between Long-Term Unemployment and Disability Incidence

23. Some reasons for increasing number of disability pensioners in Iceland Benefits are not particularly high compared to wages in the labour market Disability benefits are however high compared to other benefits in the system Sickness benefit25.000 Íkr./month Unemployment benefit90.000 -- Disability benefit 120-150.000 -- Incentives are for the long-term sick and unemployed to convert to disability pension Less than 1% return to labour market per year >>>Disability trap is a real danger! Also: Increasing pressure in the labour market

24. Policy Change and Policy Outcomes

25. From Protection to Participation The policy shift of the 1990s: Change of thinking – change of needs: Towards the Active Society-Third Way Pol. From Welfare to Workfare Clinton: End of “Welfare” as we know it Cost containment of the welfare state Great rise of early retirement + aging problem Low employment participation of the disabled Concerns with... Unemployment Marginalization Social exclusion

26. Types of Welfare States Esping-Andersen´s Three Models (1990 og 1999) + 1 American Model Minimalist, little protection, small role in soc. Big role f. private sector, firms provide benefits German Model Employment related rights, class-based rights Not very egalitarian; very expensive form South-European Model Less advanced Bismarckian, class-based rights, Family has large role, not particularly egalitarian Scandinavian Model Rights as citizen rights, public protection, good quality of subsistence security and welfare services

27. State Spending aimed at New Risks in different Welfare Regimes Activation and Services, 1980-1999 Services for elderly and disabled Services for families Active labour market support Services for elderly and disabled Services for families Active labour market support Scandinavian 1,771,600,882,731,781,67 Continental 0,460,380,130,750,741,14 Liberal 0,530,290,280,590,330,74 South European 0,080,040,020,250,370,47 EU 15 0,650,550,250,980,831,00 Iceland 2,201,100,10 ----------------1980----------------- --------------1999---------------- Peter Taylor-Gooby 2004

28. Active Labour Market Policy Expenditures as % of GDP in 2001 OECD Society at a Glance 2005

29. Expenditures on all Disability-Related Programs as % of GDP in 1999 OECD 2003

30. From Protection to Participation Routes to Activation or Employment Retention- some options: 1.Accomodated work (regulations, job retention) 2.Subsidised work (economic incentives as compensation for lower productivity) 3.Supported work (personal assistance, job coaching, job search...) 4.Sheltered work (special workshops...) 5.Reserved work (priority for special groups in jobs) 6.Vocational rehabilitation (training, rehab, education) Other options: Lower benefits and/or restrict eligibility

31. Focus and timing of Vocational Rehabilitation and Training (Quasi) Compulsory Intermediate approach Entirely voluntary Any time possible (also very early) Austria Denmark Germany Spain Sweden -- Intervention not very early Austria Denmark Norway Spain Switzerland Belgium Netherlands Polland Australia France Italy Korea UK Only after long-term sickness --Turkey Canada Mexico Portugal USA Focus on vocational rehabilitation OECD 2003 Timing of vocational rehabilitation

32. Activation Policies Cf. Duncan Gallie et. al. 2004 Difference between USA and European policies Benefits are more generous in Europe (except in South) (Activity rates are though not lower in North) Work-for-benefits was only one of options in Europe Schemes also offered employment in subsidized jobs Temporary contracts in publicly created jobs Training and education was offered Non-Work activities also offered (voluntary work) People would not lose all benefits for non- compliance “Activityfare” rather then “Workfare” (Gallie) More concern in Europe for Integration and HRD The USA model involved greater labour market discipline>>> Benefit reveivers were considerably reduced in numbers, like lone mothers (-2,4millions, thereof 1,4m went to work).

33. Activation Policies Cf. Duncan Gallie et. al. 2004; Zeitlin et.al. 2003 Evaluation of successes of activation policies: 1.In USA + many countries benefit receivers went down 2.Mixed effects on expenditures 3.Activation measures (and poverty relief) reduce social exclusion experiences significantly 4.The social inclusion obtained is though often restricted 5.Employment effects of activation were often important, but still less than hoped for (minority got sustainable jobs) 6.So employment effects are on the whole positive but modest 7.Lack of work motivation was not a significant cause of unemployment, but youths without work experience had fragile motivations 8.Removing disincentives of welfare benefits is not the all important factor 9.Crafting programs for special needs is more important

34. OECD Policies Transforming Disabilities into Abilities Evaluation of activation and social policies of member countries in 2003: 1.No country has an outstandingly successful program 2.Many countries are though doing good things 3.High benefit levels and active labour market policies can produce win-win combinations 4.High benefits can increase recipients numbers 5.Poverty alleviation is important (poverty increases trapping of people in passivity and problems) 6.Character of programs is important

35. OECD Policies Transforming Disabilities into Abilities (2003) Policy recommendations for disability: 1.Introduce culture of mutual obligations 2.Recognize the status of the disabled independently of work and income situation 3.Design individual work/benefit packages for disabled persons 4.Promote early intervention 5.Involve employers in the process 6.Restructure benefit systems to remove disincentives to work 7.Reform program administration 8.Improve coordination of transfer schemes

36. Thank you! Stefan Olafsson University of Iceland