1. SOM LRDP Discussion Historic trends and projection of growth in size of clinical and research faculty (assumptions need to be challenged and data validated) Implications for space and research portfolio Need to overlay strategic plan Need to turn projections into a business plan Assumes student growth and space needs addressed by Education Subcommittee

2. Clinical growth assumptions Clinical faculty (Clinical X and Health Sciences) – Growth in wRVUs projected from Medical Center 10 year plan – Clinical productivity (wRVU/FTE) defined by experience of last decade – No adjustment made to accommodate new GME duty hour rules – SFGH clinical faculty flat at 200 FTE on contract (to be validated)

3. wRVUs (millions) Clinical faculty number (200 @ SFGH excluded) 700 Growth in clinical faculty & work 2002-2010 X X X X X X X X 23 300 X  35% of clinical faculty are principal investigators on a grant (average MTDC per PI $360,000)  For the last decade clinical faculty have averaged 4,600 wRVU/head count

4. Growth in wRVUs and clinical faculty

5. SOM Clinical Faculty Projections (2011 – 2021) Net growthBase refreshTotal recruits 150 (50 also PIs) 750 (75/year) 900

6. Research growth assumptions Current unoccupied space used for new research recruitments, estimated space for 120 net new No net new research space added through 2021 – Assumes new building at SFGH is replacement and not net new – Assumes any MB addition serves lease consolidation and not net new Any gains from improved space management will be used for seismic decant (Parnassus and SFGH) & lease consolidation New faculty added between 2012-2021 will have same research effort and productivity as current faculty adjusted by series Source of research funding growth will be same as past (66% Federal)

7. SOM Research Faculty Projections (2011 – 2021) Net growthBase refreshTotal recruits 120300 (30/year) 420

8. Growth in faculty (2002-2021)

9. SOM Total Faculty Projections (2011 – 2021) Net growth Base refresh Total recruits Mainly clinical 150750900 Mainly research 120300420 Total37010501320* * 54% turnover (may need to be refined with age analysis)

10. What impact does this growth in faculty numbers have on space?

11. Space (ASF in 000s) and Faculty Growth Projections

12. Why no net new space projected from 2012 -2021? Filling currently available space productively will be both expensive (recruitment costs) and challenging in light of federal deficit reduction pressure on NIH Significant opportunity to better use existing space, perhaps as much as 100,000 asf for additional growth not captured in this analysis Any new building (e.g. Block 25 A&B at MB and Lot B/C at SFGH) or major capital investment in existing buildings (CSB and UH) should first address: – Seismic issues – Office implications of clinical growth – The significant opportunity cost of maintaining current extensive leased space

13. Office space implications CategoryNumberSquare feet Existing short fall749,250 New faculty15018,750 Administrative staff302,400 Research staff15012,000 Total40442,400

14. FY11 lease payments $20 million - 28% direct charged to C&G FY15 estimate with new rates $30 million Annual loss on indirect cost recovery due to off campus rate of approx. $5 million Opportunity cost of $35 million/year 84% office-based, 13% wet lab, 3% clinical

15. How likely is it that we will be able to support the projected growth in research?

16. Principal Investigators by Series FY09 N%MTDC/PIICR/PIAnnual growth Ladder22588%$780,000*$260,0001.1% In Residence 37983%$410,000$130,0004.8% Clinical X13350%$350,000$55,00012.9% Adjunct22270%$180,000$39,0003.3% Health Sciences 17232%$316,361$30,0006.8% Total113162%$428,885$120,0004.8% * May include ITN(to be checked)

17.  170 new PIs  100 In Residence  10 Ladder  10 Adjunct  50 HA or CX  Assumes TDC/PI unchanged

18. % share Needed growth in market share of NIH dollars assuming NIH budget flat for 5 years and then grows at 2% per year If market share does not grow then TDC will fall from $430,000 to $370,000 per PI

20. Next steps Challenge the assumptions Overlay strategic program ideas e.g. should we be focused on strategic growth in some areas at the expense of others? Should we add aspirational growth? Balancing supply and demand of types and locations of space – balancing form and function Overlay business plan – affordability, sources, and trade offs How do we maximize grant competitiveness and clinical productivity? What other information would be helpful?