1. SCENARIO 360 Testing Out C. David Wickliffe GIS Specialist Rockingham Planning Commission Commission Meeting April 12, 2006

2. & impacts Alternate Development Scenarios Sample Property Analysis

3. Alternate Development Scenarios & Impacts Current Status & Up to 3 alternates Impacts

4. Alternate Development Scenarios Land Use Impervious Surfaces Natural Resources Unfragmented Lands Open Space arrangement of the development Water Use Municipal Services Costs

5. Selection of the Sample Community Greenland Circuit Rider = David West Existing major development proposal with alternate scenarios CAD files of scenarios available

6. Sample Development Area Approx 130 Total acres 18 acres in Greenland 110 acres in Rye For our Evaluation Purposes – just treat entire development as completely within Greenland

7. Existing Conditions 128 acres of forest Alternate Development Scenarios ‘As of Right’ – zoning compliant commercial and residential development – 13 single family homes Dev 1 –(alternate 1 = ‘Senior Village’) commercial and a senior housing facility with apartment buildings – 200 housing units Dev 2 (alternate 2 = ‘Larger Senior Village’) commercial and a major senior housing facility and townhouse buildings – 300 housing units

8. Got CAD files from Developer Land Use Commercial Residential Forest Recreational Impervious surfaces Buildings Roads Parking lots Road Centerlines To compute road length Process to GIS Layers Data Development Fragmented Land Loss to Unfragmented Blocks

9. 4 scenarios Run simultaneously Each has own data view –All map layers are linked so on/off status is same All indicators, assumptions, charts exist for each scenario –But only need to make each one once –they’re automatically replicated for all scenarios Just need to put in Differing GIS Layers (Land Use, Impervious Surfaces and Roads AND change the assumptions per scenario

10. Assumptions- set up Our categories: General, Land Use, Natres, ImpSurf, Open Space, Water Use, Budget, Set Up

11. Writing Formulas similar to MS-Excel functions But with spatial functions, too! FORMULA EDITOR FORMULA WIZARD No problem for easy formulas through the Wizard – can be a steep learning curve for more difficult formulas

12. Charts for Indicators Easy to set up Not very customizable though some options Set Up/Edit

13. Saved Views Arrange Similar Charts + their indicators/assumptions CREATED SEVERAL SAVED VIEWS OF RELATED CHARTS

14. Look at Charts In analysis

15. Unfragmented Land and Open Space Indicators

16. Our Saved Views: Unfrag OS (Unfragmented Lands & Open Space) Side by side comparison Unfragmented land outline

17. Unfrag OS (Unfragmented Lands & Open Space)

18. subject_fragland Unfrag OS (Unfragmented Lands & Open Space) UnfragCov Unfragmentedlands

19. Unfrag OS (Unfragmented Lands & Open Space)

20. MaxUnFragBloc MaxFragBloc MaxUnFragPotNew

21. Dynamic attribute : FragCov UnfragmentedLands Indicator : MaxFragBloc Acreage of Overlap with subject Fragland, 1 value for each unfragmented polygon Indicator : MaxUnFragBloc Maximum value of FragCov Acreage of Unfragmented Lands polygon corresponding to MaxFragBloc (acreage of polygon with the largest overlap with subject fragmented lands) Acreage of Largest affected block MINUS the overlap from the Subject Fragland the ‘New’ acreage of the largest affected block with development

22. Our Saved Views: Unfrag OS (Unfragmented Lands & Open Space)

23. Unfrag OS (Unfragmented Lands & Open Space) Compactness Ratio, 4  A/p2, 1 value for each LU polygon (better than simple area/perimeter ratio) Dynamic attribute : A2Pratio Subject LandUse Indicator : maxOSLandu Area of of largest non-developed LU polygon, reselected by Land Use code Gets the Compactness Ratio for the polygon of the largest non-developed poly

24. Our Saved Views: Unfrag OS (Unfragmented Lands & Open Space)

25. Gets the Area for the polygon of the largest non-developed (Open Space) poly

26. Back to Community Viz Following are slides of each chart

27. Where’d we get sample assumptions? Town Reports EPA water use estimate Just guessed – until better values are avaliable

28. Assumptions Figured from Town Reports Police Fire Roads Refuse

29. Report Generator Does 2 scenarios at a time Used for Planning Board Handouts

30. Errors

31. Possibilities To improve the Analysis Town/Watershed-wide Cumulative Indicators The acreage and percentage coverage by impervious surfaces could be given for the subject development as well as the whole watershed. Therefore, the town could monitor the cumulative effect of each development within the watershed. More Indicators for Town Departments/Services Get all departments that are affected by any change in population and/or development to supply any assumptions and indicators that they use – or may wish to use, to submit them to the planning board for inclusion in Scenario 360. Planning Board is in the vanguard of the community’s control over development and growth Could consider the many issues a development may have on –the community, –watershed – region. Require Submission of Digital Plans

32. Possibilities To improve the Analysis

33. Conclusions Software has steep learning curve (this project took approx 200 hrs! –Although there were some diversions We spent time discovering what could be done and how to do it, and included some dead ends with lost effort (but that’s why we did this evaluation) Error messages and sometimes bombing out of program for unknown reasons –Had to remake project 3 times over, in the beginning output is only as good as the input (as well as the process logic). Indicator Accuracy depends on the accuracy of the input GIS layers How legitimate are the assumptions How well are the indicator formulas are composed. – Whether you must devise your own indicators or adopt preexisting ones can make a big difference. Requires ArcGIS ArcView to run = $1500 software Helps people visualize and organize development considerations and impacts Great potential! – just needs lots of set-up time. Once a community Analysis is ‘set-up’ - new development proposals could be fairly minor work to implement Costs under $200 now! - perhaps best value ArcGIS extension there is

34. end

35. List of Charts With descriptions

36. Our Saved Views: general

37. Our Saved Views: Land Use

39. Our Saved Views: Impervious

41. Our Saved Views: Natural Resources Side by side comparison- map layout Helpful just to visualize natural resources In relation to development

42. Our Saved Views: Natural Resources

48. Our Saved Views: Water Use

49. Our Saved Views: Budget