1. Sacred & Secular Religion and Politics Worldwide Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart

2. Structure I. Theories of secularization Religiosity & existential security II. Research design III. Evidence IV. Conclusions Advanced industrial societies have become steadily more secular during the last 50 years Yet the world as a whole has more people with traditional religious beliefs than ever before

3. Book Contents

4. I:Theories of secularization Max Weber – Enlightenment Rationality The loss of faith Emile Durkheim - Functionalism The loss of purpose due to functional differentiation Stark and Finke - Religious market theory “After nearly three centuries of utterly failed prophesies and misrepresentations of both present and past, it seems time to carry the secularization doctrine to the graveyard of failed theories, and there to whisper ‘requiescat in pace’” Stark and Finke. 2000. Acts of Faith. Public ‘demand’ for religion is constant Supply-side competition among clergy energizes religiosity Established churches dampen competition Religious participation explained by religious pluralism and freedom of religion

5. Theory of secularization & security A#1 Societies differ in levels of basic human security A#2 Societies differ in their predominant religious culture Religious values Eg Importance of religion Importance of God Religious Participation Eg Attend religious services Daily prayer or meditation Religious Political Activism Eg Member religious groups Support religious party Religious beliefs Eg Within each religion Moral attitudes Demographic trends H1 H2 H3 H4 H5

6. II. Research design?

7. World Values Survey 1981-2001

8. Classification of societies Catholic (28) Protestant (20) Orthodox (12) Muslim (13) Eastern (6) Post industrial Eg Austria, Belgium, Ireland, Italy Eg Australia, Britain, Finland, Germany, US Industrial Eg Argentina, Croatia, Mexico, Poland Eg Estonia, Latvia Eg Belarus, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania Eg Turkey,Eg South Korea, Taiwan Agrarian Eg Dominican Rep, El Salvador, Peru Eg South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda Eg Armenia, Moldova Eg Algeria, Egypt, Indonesia, Nigeria Eg China, India, Viet Nam Sources: Type of predominant religion: CIA World Factbook; Type of society: HDI UNDP

9. Core Measures INDIVIDUAL RELIGIOUS PARTICIPATION Apart from weddings, funerals and christenings, how often do you attend religious services? How often do you pray to God outside of religious services? RELIGIOUS VALUES How important is God in your life? How important is religion in your life? RELIGIOUS BELIEFS Do you believe in heaven? Do you believe in hell? Do you believe in life after death? Do you believe people have a soul?

10. Measures of religious participation

11. Evidence Cross-national  Comparisons by type of society Time-series  Trends in survey data (WVS, Gallup, EB) Generational comparisons  By birth cohort Sectoral comparisons  Individual-level within societies

12. III: Evidence

13. Note: Religious participation: Q185 “Apart from weddings, funerals and christenings, about how often do you attend religious services these days? More than once a week, once a week, once a month, only on special hold days, once a year, less often, never or practically never.” The proportion who attended ‘Once a week or more.’ Source: World Values Survey (pooled surveys, 1981-2001)

14. Religiosity by type of society

15. Religiosity & Development

16. Trends in belief in God 1947-2001 Ref Gallup polls & WVS Nation1947196819751981199019952001Change b.Sig. (P) Sweden806052384846-33.6 -.675.009 Netherlands8079646158-22.0 -.463.020 Australia95807975 -19.9 -.379.007 Norway8473685865-18.9 -.473.018 Denmark80535962-17.9 -.387.023 Britain7776737261-16.5 -.461.021 Greece9684-12.3 -.364- West Germany817268637169-12.0 -.305.169 Belgium78766567-11.2 -.487.145 Finland83 617372-10.8 -.296.167 France667372595756-10.1 -.263.162 Canada9589918588-7.2 -.387.075 Switzerland8477 -7.2 -.277.111 India989394-4.0 -.231.275 Japan3839374435-3.0 -.016.935 Austria857883-1.9 -.097.700 Italy8882 88-0.1.039.873 United States949894969394 0.4 -.027.533 Brazil9698993.0.056.152 ALL 10 1947-20018572-13.5 -.315.003

17. Trends in European church attendance, 1970-2000 Source: Eurobarometer annual surveys

18. Religious participation in the United States, 1972-2004 Note: Q: “How often do you attend religious services?” Never/ At least once a week or more often. Source: US General Social Survey 1972-2004 N.43,204 Never Once a week+ Never At least weekly

19. US denominational identities Note: “What is your religious preference? Is it Protestant, Catholic, Jewish, some other religion, or no religion?” The graph excludes religious identities adhered to by less than 3% of Americans. Source: US General Social Survey 1972-2004 N. 43,532 Protestant None Catholic

20. Strength of US religious identities, 1972-2004 Note: Q: “Would you call yourself a strong/not very strong [religious affiliation]?” No religion/ Strong affiliation. Source: US General Social Survey 1972-2004 N.43,204 Strong affiliation None

21. Religious participation by cohort Postindustrial Industrial Agrarian

22. Religiosity & household income, postindustrial societies Source: WVS 1981-2001

23. Supply-side theory?

24. Indicators of supply-side Religious pluralism: the Herfindahl Index (Alesina 2002) The state regulation of religion: Scale measured by Mark Chaves and David E. Cann (1992). Freedom House religious freedom scale, 2001. www.freedomhouse.org Religious Freedom Index

25. Religious freedom index: Classification: US State Dept International Religious Freedom, 2002.

26. Indicators in postindustrial societies

27. Indicators in post-communist societies Human development index Religious pluralism

28. Failure of religious markets theory

29. Yet religious population expands

30. Religion & demographic trends (Source: World Bank 2003)

31. Fertility rates by type of society Type of society Nati ons Annual population growth rate (%), 1975-1997 Annual population growth rate (%), 1997-2015 Most secular250.70.2 Moderate240.70.3 Most religious242.21.5 Total731.20.7 Type of society: Based on mean macro-level religious values measured on the 10-point to ‘importance of God’ scale, WVS 1981-2001. Nations: Number of societies Source: World Bank 2003 World Development Indicators. Washington DC: World Bank: www.worldbank.orgwww.worldbank.org

32. IV: Conclusions

33. Conclusions 1. Virtually all advanced industrial societies are moving towards more secular orientations. 2. Yet the world as a whole now has more people with traditional religious beliefs than ever before 3. The religion gap becomes increasingly salient on the global agenda, yet the consequences for international conflict remain unclear. Further details/chapters: www.pippanorris.com

34. Details: www.pippanorris.com

35. Values & participation

36. Model AModel BModel C DevelopmentDevelopment + Religious Orientation Development + Religious Orientation + Religious culture b(s.e.)BetaSig.B(s.e.)BetaSig.B(s.e.)BetaSig. SOCIETAL DEVELOPMENT Level of human development (HDI 1998)2.5751.18.279.034.2441.16.026N/s.6951.16.075N/s Levels of economic inequality (Gini coeff.)-.037.017-.275.036-.002.014-.018.035-.029.014-.219.038 RELIGIOUS ORIENTATION Religious values (4-point scale).912.342.462.0101.58.354.803.000 Religious beliefs (4-point scale).454.171.366.010.422.148.340.006 TYPE OF RELIGIOUS CULTURE Catholic societies-.148.408-.058N/s Protestant societies-.375.461-.101N/s Orthodox societies-.374.444-.100N/s Muslim societies1.97.534.556.001 Constant4.29.013.292 Adjusted R 2.184.520.646 Models of religious participation