1. MedAction Work Package 3.3 Developing an Interactive Internet Based Synoptic Prediction System Andy Turner Jianhui Jin

2. Outline Recap Progress, the current situation and the completion of the work package Screen shots / Demonstrations The future

3. One deliverable (Dec 03) Expectations high Small amount of resources Relies on heavily on the pooled resources of the CCG and the wider open source software community Lots of programming and software configuration involved Large computational requirement Last time I came to a meeting (Maratea, Oct 02) ~ 3 months of wages remained –Confident on delivery –Requested additional resources so as to produce a higher quality deliverable Overlap with DesertLinks –WP2.2 WP3.2 Recap

4. AIMS Develop –a scenario based land-use and land degradation prediction system (first cobbled together in MEDALUS III) –an interactive internet interface to this modelling system and associated data (this is the main work) Encourage experts, policy makers and the public to use the system and provide feedback to aid its development Deliver a state-of-the-art web based public participation GIS for monitoring, modelling and mitigating land degradation risk under different environmental change scenarios

5. Progress as of October 2002 Main components of the SPS developed in MEDALUS III rewritten in Java –Neural network component –Fuzzy inference component –Grid processing component Prototype 3 chosen for development –Base software apache web server tomcat (servlet container) PHP (hypertext precurser) MYSQL (database) –Basic structure provided by the PostNuke content management system Provides code for the generic features that might be wanted for a website –User management –Language options –Online development capabilities –Components of the SPS to be Java Applets integrated as modules in PostNuke –The client to the system to be any Java 2 enabled browser –Communication between Applets running in the client browser and the database and PostNuke to be done using Java Servlets running on the server –GeoTools-lite to be used for rendering maps on the client browser

6. Issues for Concern High expectations –dissatisfaction with delivered system Availability of data and quality of existing data is poor –Really a scoping study is needed to investigate what exists (and of what quality it is) –Most of the theoretically desirable data for modelling land-use and land degradation still does not exist at anything approaching the level of spatial and temporal detail necessary –Agricultural subsidy and yield data not affordable and does not exists at the spatial detail necessary to model the effects of subsidy changes EUROSTAT problem –The only workable framework for estimation involves integrated assessment

7. Progress, the current situation and the completion of the work package Data viewer module has been updated so that all data can be viewed and commented on An neural network model has been trained to predict greeness from NDVI data A fuzzy inference models have been defined and used to generate land degradation indicators The model outputs can be viewed online Users can create their own fuzzy inference model online Users cannot use the neural network module to develop neural network models on the European data –This had been the plan –The reason it is not implemented is computational Internet interface that draws all these modules together …exists and is still being developed, although only a little…

8. So what does it look like?