1. Back in contention? Tory prospects for 2009/10 John Curtice Strathclyde University

2. Target to Win If Change in % Lib Dem Con % Lab % Lead 040.129.310.8 -541.632.88.8 -1043.136.36.8

3. Target to be Biggest If Change in % Lib Dem Con % Lab % Lead 037.531.95.6 -539.934.55.4 -1042.337.15.2

4. Reasons for Bias zLab seats (still) smaller zLower turnout in Lab seats zTory vote too inefficiently (i.e. evenly) spread

5. The Battle with Blair

6. Brown Bounces

7. Still Stuck in Scotland

8. Drift to the Right

9. Changing T&S Priorities

10. Personal Popularity

11. How Cameron Compares

12. Economic Competence

13. Conclusion zTories face a tall order zHave only briefly been doing well enough to win zClimate more favourable - but is it stable and can it be exploited? zCameron reasonably popular - but still uncertainty about party’s competence?