1. Default Expectations for the Holocene from an Energy Balance Model

2. Change In solar insolation 9k- present

3. Change In solar insolation 6k- present

4. Change in annual mean insoltion Only obliquity matters

5. Annual mean energy balance model- expected temp change (6k-0) Part of the would be change is damped by changes in heat flux-

6. Annual temperature change If heat flux doesn’t change

7. Seasonal energy balance model- Seasonal temperature change (6k-0) LAND

8. Seasonal energy balance model- Annual temperature change (6k-0)

9. Monsoons Claim: enhanced magnitude of summer insolation during the holocene forced stronger monsoons Assumption – summer insolation was stronger during holcene COUNTERCLAIM- it’s just (mostly) a phase shift- JJA insolation is the worst possible proxy for magnitude of seasonal insolation

10. Seasonal Insolation 6k and present 30 N

11. Have I screwed something up? Very possibly, but I can come close to getting the JJA curve from my script Note: I’ve used a three point interpolation of orbital parameters [-9 -6 0] which probably Does a bad job between -6 and 0

12. Can we define a better summer insolation index? Integrate the seasonal cycle of insolation for days where the insolation is above a threshold (400 W/m^2)