1. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Use of models for Maritime spatial planning Output from the data modelling workshop in Hamburg by Christian Mohn and Karsten Dahl

2. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Write title on the masterpage Introduction What is the goals we would like to reach with regard to use of models within the framework of BaltSeaPlan –Can we get a common understanding of the potential and limitations of use of models in MSP –What output would we (the whole project) like to produce ? How to structure the work done at this meeting ? Examples of BaltSeaPlan model results

3. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Write title on the masterpage Models – what is it good for ? Fill gaps between actual measurements Study specific processes Scenarios (what if...?) Setting ecological targets –Specific case –Favourable conservation status (sensus Hab- Dir.) –Good environmental status (sensus VFD) –Targets for descriptors (sensus the Marine Strategy Dir.)

4. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Write title on the masterpage BALANCE: Marine landscapes Based on: Geology Salinity photic/nonphotic zone BaltSeaPlan: A more compehensive description of marine landscapes based on:  Extension of BALANCE parameters to a longer period (2002-2009)  Oxygen  Improve acoustic mapping A question of scale

5. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Write title on the masterpage BaltSeaPlan project Output Three string strategy –Direct input in the form of GIS maps and data to be used in the Maritime spatial planning in relevant pilot areas –A BaltSeaPlan report describing use of models in MSP –Specific (BaltSeaPlan) scientific publication(s) NERI has an intention to produce one on key environmental parameters and model validation

6. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Write title on the masterpage Synopsis for a ”model report” The reason to use models is to (e.g. fill observational data gaps, investigate and understand processes, to carry out ‘what happens if’ scenarios, assist setting ecological targets) … Definition and short introduction to different types of models How can modelled data be integrated in MSP and SEA analysis (tools like MARXAN and ??) What questions do planners like to get answered by use of models (development of a set of table) Description of successful BaltSeaPlan case stories Conclusion and recommendations

7. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Write title on the masterpage Example

8. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Write title on the masterpage Tursday session (block III-a) afternoon 16:00-17:00 Task: To discuss and formulate relavant MSP questions that models might be able to help answering example of Question: How does shipping activities influence the marine ecosystem? Background information: Draft Synopsis distributed by mail from S-PRO Thursday 6 May

9. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Write title on the masterpage Questions/suggestions ? Suggestions/comments to –the suggested outputs (maps, common report, scientific papers) ? –The draft synopsis for the ”model report” ? –The content of the tables (e.g. more colums with new information, changed headdings …..?

10. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Write title on the masterpage Tursday session (block III-b) afternoon 17:30-18:30 Task: To discuss and agree on specific Baltic Sea wide model outputs Preparation: consider variables, indicators as well as spatial and temporal scale (List available for inspiration)

11. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Env. parameters: Currents Sea surface height Temperature Salinity Oxygen … Indicators: Variability Extreme values Peak events Specific worst case conditions Time series Spatial/temporal averages Scenarios … Temporal and spatial scales: hourly, daily, monthly, seasonal, annual, individual grid locations, pilot areas, sub- basins, Baltic wide, … ?? Model parameters and related products – what is relevant for MSP ?

12. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark 7 year (2002 – 2008) mean bottom oxygen mmol.m 3 hypoxic / anoxic conditions Main areas affected by hypoxia / anoxia

13. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark 7 year (2002 – 2008) minimum bottom oxygen hypoxic / anoxic conditions Areas sometimes or regularly affected by hypoxia / anoxia mmol.m 3

14. National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark Write title on the masterpage Awareness of model limitations List of model parameters + spatial, temporal coverage + their relevance for MSP and SEA (which questions can be answered with models – Model table as the baseline information) Strategies for model validation (repository of observational data) Spatial maps to identify areas where models provide reliable and robust information (model skill, distance to observational data)