1. Education & the Onset of Civil War Is there a connection? Notes from Clayton L. Thyne’s research: “ABCs, 123s, and the Golden Rule: The Pacifying Effect of Education on Civil War, 1980-1999.” International Studies Quarterly (2006) 50, 733-754.

2. Civil war: (his defn) Fighting between a state and a non-state organized group for control of govt. or region >1000 people killed total;.100/year >100 killed on each side Studied 49 civil wars 1980-1999

3. Some Effects of civil war Bad for economy: diverts $ from social programs--pushes wealth abroad--slows economic growth Social indicators: increased adult mortality, infant mortality, long-term disability, massive refugee movements

4. Causes of Civil Wars Hard to change: poverty, population, regime type, Easy to change: education

5. Government “signals” (first mechanism) Government spending (water sanitation, health care, education) = “cares for people” Education -->economic growth Education-->more equitable econ. growth

6. “Education is one of the most powerful instruments societies have for reducing deprivation and vulnerability; it helps lift earnings potential, expands labor mobility, promotes the health of parents and children, reduces fertility and child mortality, and affords the disadvantages a voice in society and the political system” (World Bank 2002)

7. Example: Sierra Leone Interviewed fighters--”Why join?” Failure of govt. to educate –Teachers not paid –Schools falling down The root of the rebellion

8. This Study: Independent variables in education 1.Investment in education 2.Primary enrollment rates 3.Secondary rates Both mixed and only men 4.Postsecondary rates 5.Adult literacy rates

9. Results of this study: Government Investments & Grievances: #1: Increased government investment in education decreases the possibility of civil war onset #2: Increased primary enrollment rates decrease the probability of civil war onset

10. Education & Stability (2nd mechanism) Education => “Social Cohesion” 1.Teaches interpersonal skills 2.Brings people together 3.Equality of opportunity 4.Common citizenship for diverse groups

11. Education =>Stability Broadens outlook Increases tolerance Restrains extremist activity and doctrines Teaches how to pursue interests w/in the political system

12. Implications for civil war Skills learned in classroom => more apt to seek peaceful resolutions Better able to understand poverty, economic development, role of govt. Education =>more wealth from taxes, more resources for govt. Decreases power of rebel organiz. to attract young men

13. More results of this study: (stability factors) #3: As rates of secondary male enrollment increase, the probability of civil war onset decreases #4: As indicators of adult education increase, the probability of civil war onset decreases

14. CONCLUSION Must look beyond just the greed vs. grievance debate. Civil war isn’t just an economic problem. Education is a good place for foreign aid investment: retain young men in school, raise the recruitment costs of rebels, lower probability of civil war