1. Statistics for the Social Sciences Psychology 340 Fall 2006 Hypothesis testing

2. Statistics for the Social Sciences Outline (for week) Review of: –Basic probability –Normal distribution –Hypothesis testing framework Stating hypotheses General test statistic and test statistic distributions When to reject or fail to reject

3. Statistics for the Social Sciences Hypothesis testing Example: Testing the effectiveness of a new memory treatment for patients with memory problems –Our pharmaceutical company develops a new drug treatment that is designed to help patients with impaired memories. –Before we market the drug we want to see if it works. –The drug is designed to work on all memory patients, but we can’t test them all (the population). –So we decide to use a sample and conduct the following experiment. –Based on the results from the sample we will make conclusions about the population.

4. Statistics for the Social Sciences Hypothesis testing Example: Testing the effectiveness of a new memory treatment for patients with memory problems Memory treatment No Memory treatment Memory patients Memory Test Memory Test 55 errors 60 errors 5 error diff Is the 5 error difference: –A “real” difference due to the effect of the treatment –Or is it just sampling error?

5. Statistics for the Social Sciences Testing Hypotheses Hypothesis testing –Procedure for deciding whether the outcome of a study (results for a sample) support a particular theory (which is thought to apply to a population) –Core logic of hypothesis testing Considers the probability that the result of a study could have come about if the experimental procedure had no effect If this probability is low, scenario of no effect is rejected and the theory behind the experimental procedure is supported

6. Statistics for the Social Sciences Basics of Probability Probability –Expected relative frequency of a particular outcome Outcome –The result of an experiment

7. Statistics for the Social Sciences Flipping a coin example What are the odds of getting a “heads”? One outcome classified as heads = 1 2 =0.5 Total of two outcomes n = 1 flip

8. Statistics for the Social Sciences Flipping a coin example What are the odds of getting two “heads”? Number of heads 2 1 1 0 One 2 “heads” outcome Four total outcomes =0.25 This situation is known as the binomial # of outcomes = 2 n n = 2

9. Statistics for the Social Sciences Flipping a coin example What are the odds of getting “at least one heads”? Number of heads 2 1 1 0 Four total outcomes =0.75 Three “at least one heads” outcome n = 2

10. Statistics for the Social Sciences Flipping a coin example HHH HHT HTH HTT THH THT TTH TTT Number of heads 3 2 1 0 2 2 1 1 2n2n = 2 3 = 8 total outcomes n = 3

11. Statistics for the Social Sciences Flipping a coin example Number of heads 3 2 1 0 2 2 1 1 Xfp 31.125 23.375 13 01.125 Number of heads 0123.1.2.3.4 probability.125.375 Distribution of possible outcomes (n = 3 flips)

12. Statistics for the Social Sciences Flipping a coin example Number of heads 0123.1.2.3.4 probability What’s the probability of flipping three heads in a row?.125.375 p = 0.125 Distribution of possible outcomes (n = 3 flips) Can make predictions about likelihood of outcomes based on this distribution.

13. Statistics for the Social Sciences Flipping a coin example Number of heads 0123.1.2.3.4 probability What’s the probability of flipping at least two heads in three tosses?.125.375 p = 0.375 + 0.125 = 0.50 Can make predictions about likelihood of outcomes based on this distribution. Distribution of possible outcomes (n = 3 flips)

14. Statistics for the Social Sciences Flipping a coin example Number of heads 0123.1.2.3.4 probability What’s the probability of flipping all heads or all tails in three tosses?.125.375 p = 0.125 + 0.125 = 0.25 Can make predictions about likelihood of outcomes based on this distribution. Distribution of possible outcomes (n = 3 flips)

15. Statistics for the Social Sciences Hypothesis testing Can make predictions about likelihood of outcomes based on this distribution. Distribution of possible outcomes (of a particular sample size, n) In hypothesis testing, we compare our observed samples with the distribution of possible samples (transformed into standardized distributions) This distribution of possible outcomes is often Normally Distributed

16. Statistics for the Social Sciences The Normal Distribution The distribution of days before and after due date (bin width = 4 days). 0 14 -14 Days before and after due date

17. Statistics for the Social Sciences The Normal Distribution Normal distribution

18. Statistics for the Social Sciences The Normal Distribution Normal distribution is a commonly found distribution that is symmetrical and unimodal. –Not all unimodal, symmetrical curves are Normal, so be careful with your descriptions It is defined by the following equation: 12-20

19. Statistics for the Social Sciences The Unit Normal Table z.00.01 -3.4 -3.3 : 0 : 1.0 : 3.3 3.4 0.0003 0.0005 : 0.5000 : 0.8413 : 0.9995 0.9997 0.0003 0.0005 : 0.5040 : 0.8438 : 0.9995 0.9997 Gives the precise proportion of scores (in z-scores) between the mean (Z score of 0) and any other Z score in a Normal distribution –Contains the proportions in the tail to the left of corresponding z-scores of a Normal distribution This means that the table lists only positive Z scores The normal distribution is often transformed into z-scores.

20. Statistics for the Social Sciences Using the Unit Normal Table z.00.01 -3.4 -3.3 : 0 : 1.0 : 3.3 3.4 0.0003 0.0005 : 0.5000 : 0.8413 : 0.9995 0.9997 0.0003 0.0005 : 0.5040 : 0.8438 : 0.9995 0.9997 15.87% (13.59% and 2.28%) of the scores are to the right of the score 100%-15.87% = 84.13% to the left At z = +1: 13.59% 2.28% 34.13% 50%-34%-14% rule 12-20 Similar to the 68%-95%-99% rule

21. Statistics for the Social Sciences Using the Unit Normal Table z.00.01 -3.4 -3.3 : 0 : 1.0 : 3.3 3.4 0.0003 0.0005 : 0.5000 : 0.8413 : 0.9995 0.9997 0.0003 0.0005 : 0.5040 : 0.8438 : 0.9995 0.9997 1. Convert raw score to Z score (if necessary) 2. Draw normal curve, where the Z score falls on it, shade in the area for which you are finding the percentage 3. Make rough estimate of shaded area’s percentage (using 50%-34%-14% rule) Steps for figuring the percentage above of below a particular raw or Z score:

22. Statistics for the Social Sciences Using the Unit Normal Table z.00.01 -3.4 -3.3 : 0 : 1.0 : 3.3 3.4 0.0003 0.0005 : 0.5000 : 0.8413 : 0.9995 0.9997 0.0003 0.0005 : 0.5040 : 0.8438 : 0.9995 0.9997 4. Find exact percentage using unit normal table 5. If needed, add or subtract 50% from this percentage 6. Check the exact percentage is within the range of the estimate from Step 3 Steps for figuring the percentage above of below a particular raw or Z score:

23. Statistics for the Social Sciences Suppose that you got a 630 on the SAT. What percent of the people who take the SAT get your score or worse? SAT Example problems The population parameters for the SAT are:  = 500,  = 100, and it is Normally distributed From the table: z(1.3) =.0968 That’s 9.68% above this score So 90.32% got your score or worse

24. Statistics for the Social Sciences The Normal Distribution You can go in the other direction too –Steps for figuring Z scores and raw scores from percentages: 1. Draw normal curve, shade in approximate area for the percentage (using the 50%-34%-14% rule) 2. Make rough estimate of the Z score where the shaded area starts 3. Find the exact Z score using the unit normal table 4. Check that your Z score is similar to the rough estimate from Step 2 5. If you want to find a raw score, change it from the Z score

25. Statistics for the Social Sciences Inferential statistics Hypothesis testing –Core logic of hypothesis testing Considers the probability that the result of a study could have come about if the experimental procedure had no effect If this probability is low, scenario of no effect is rejected and the theory behind the experimental procedure is supported Step 1: State your hypotheses Step 2: Set your decision criteria Step 3: Collect your data Step 4: Compute your test statistics Step 5: Make a decision about your null hypothesis –A five step program

26. Statistics for the Social Sciences –Step 1: State your hypotheses : as a research hypothesis and a null hypothesis about the populations Null hypothesis (H 0 ) Research hypothesis (H A ) Hypothesis testing There are no differences between conditions (no effect of treatment) Generally, not all groups are equal This is the one that you test Hypothesis testing: a five step program –You aren’t out to prove the alternative hypothesis If you reject the null hypothesis, then you’re left with support for the alternative(s) (NOT proof!)

27. Statistics for the Social Sciences In our memory example experiment: Testing Hypotheses  Treatment >  No Treatment  Treatment <  No Treatment H0:H0: HA:HA: – Our theory is that the treatment should improve memory (fewer errors). –Step 1: State your hypotheses Hypothesis testing: a five step program One -tailed

28. Statistics for the Social Sciences In our memory example experiment: Testing Hypotheses  Treatment >  No Treatment  Treatment <  No Treatment H0:H0: HA:HA: – Our theory is that the treatment should improve memory (fewer errors). –Step 1: State your hypotheses Hypothesis testing: a five step program  Treatment =  No Treatment  Treatment ≠  No Treatment H0:H0: HA:HA: – Our theory is that the treatment has an effect on memory. One -tailedTwo -tailed no direction specified direction specified

29. Statistics for the Social Sciences One-Tailed and Two-Tailed Hypothesis Tests Directional hypotheses –One-tailed test Nondirectional hypotheses –Two-tailed test

30. Statistics for the Social Sciences Testing Hypotheses –Step 1: State your hypotheses –Step 2: Set your decision criteria Hypothesis testing: a five step program Your alpha (  ) level will be your guide for when to reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis. –Based on the probability of making making an certain type of error

31. Statistics for the Social Sciences Testing Hypotheses –Step 1: State your hypotheses –Step 2: Set your decision criteria –Step 3: Collect your data Hypothesis testing: a five step program

32. Statistics for the Social Sciences Testing Hypotheses –Step 1: State your hypotheses –Step 2: Set your decision criteria –Step 3: Collect your data –Step 4: Compute your test statistics Hypothesis testing: a five step program Descriptive statistics (means, standard deviations, etc.) Inferential statistics (z-test, t-tests, ANOVAs, etc.)

33. Statistics for the Social Sciences Testing Hypotheses –Step 1: State your hypotheses –Step 2: Set your decision criteria –Step 3: Collect your data –Step 4: Compute your test statistics –Step 5: Make a decision about your null hypothesis Hypothesis testing: a five step program Based on the outcomes of the statistical tests researchers will either: –Reject the null hypothesis –Fail to reject the null hypothesis This could be correct conclusion or the incorrect conclusion

34. Statistics for the Social Sciences Error types Type I error (  ): concluding that there is a difference between groups (“an effect”) when there really isn’t. –Sometimes called “significance level” or “alpha level” –We try to minimize this (keep it low) Type II error (  ): concluding that there isn’t an effect, when there really is. –Related to the Statistical Power of a test (1-  )

35. Statistics for the Social Sciences Error types Real world (‘truth’) H 0 is correct H 0 is wrong Experimenter’s conclusions Reject H 0 Fail to Reject H 0 There really isn’t an effect There really is an effect

36. Statistics for the Social Sciences Error types Real world (‘truth’) H 0 is correct H 0 is wrong Experimenter’s conclusions Reject H 0 Fail to Reject H 0 I conclude that there is an effect I can’t detect an effect

37. Statistics for the Social Sciences Error types Real world (‘truth’) H 0 is correct H 0 is wrong Experimenter’s conclusions Reject H 0 Fail to Reject H 0 Type I error Type II error

38. Statistics for the Social Sciences Performing your statistical test H 0 : is true (no treatment effect)H 0 : is false (is a treatment effect) Two populations One population What are we doing when we test the hypotheses? Real world (‘truth’) XAXA they aren’t the same as those in the population of memory patients XAXA the memory treatment sample are the same as those in the population of memory patients.

39. Statistics for the Social Sciences Performing your statistical test What are we doing when we test the hypotheses? –Computing a test statistic: Generic test Could be difference between a sample and a population, or between different samples Based on standard error or an estimate of the standard error

40. Statistics for the Social Sciences “Generic” statistical test The generic test statistic distribution (think of this as the distribution of sample means) –To reject the H 0, you want a computed test statistics that is large –What’s large enough? The alpha level gives us the decision criterion Distribution of the test statistic  -level determines where these boundaries go

41. Statistics for the Social Sciences “Generic” statistical test If test statistic is here Reject H 0 If test statistic is here Fail to reject H 0 Distribution of the test statistic The generic test statistic distribution (think of this as the distribution of sample means) –To reject the H 0, you want a computed test statistics that is large –What’s large enough? The alpha level gives us the decision criterion

42. Statistics for the Social Sciences “Generic” statistical test Reject H 0 Fail to reject H 0 The alpha level gives us the decision criterion One -tailedTwo -tailed Reject H 0 Fail to reject H 0 Reject H 0 Fail to reject H 0  = 0.05 0.025 split up into the two tails

43. Statistics for the Social Sciences “Generic” statistical test Reject H 0 Fail to reject H 0 The alpha level gives us the decision criterion One -tailedTwo -tailed Reject H 0 Fail to reject H 0 Reject H 0 Fail to reject H 0  = 0.05 0.05 all of it in one tail

44. Statistics for the Social Sciences “Generic” statistical test Reject H 0 Fail to reject H 0 The alpha level gives us the decision criterion One -tailedTwo -tailed Reject H 0 Fail to reject H 0 Reject H 0 Fail to reject H 0  = 0.05 0.05 all of it in one tail

45. Statistics for the Social Sciences “Generic” statistical test An example: One sample z-test Memory example experiment: We give a n = 16 memory patients a memory improvement treatment. How do they compare to the general population of memory patients who have a distribution of memory errors that is Normal,  = 60,  = 8? After the treatment they have an average score of = 55 memory errors. Step 1: State your hypotheses H0:H0: the memory treatment sample are the same as those in the population of memory patients. HA:HA: they aren’t the same as those in the population of memory patients  Treatment >  pop > 60  Treatment <  pop < 60

46. Statistics for the Social Sciences “Generic” statistical test An example: One sample z-test Memory example experiment: We give a n = 16 memory patients a memory improvement treatment. How do they compare to the general population of memory patients who have a distribution of memory errors that is Normal,  = 60,  = 8? After the treatment they have an average score of = 55 memory errors. Step 2: Set your decision criteria  = 0.05 One -tailed H 0 :  Treatment >  pop > 60 H A :  Treatment <  pop < 60

47. Statistics for the Social Sciences “Generic” statistical test An example: One sample z-test Memory example experiment: We give a n = 16 memory patients a memory improvement treatment. How do they compare to the general population of memory patients who have a distribution of memory errors that is Normal,  = 60,  = 8? After the treatment they have an average score of = 55 memory errors.  = 0.05 One -tailed Step 3: Collect your data H 0 :  Treatment >  pop > 60 H A :  Treatment <  pop < 60

48. Statistics for the Social Sciences “Generic” statistical test An example: One sample z-test Memory example experiment: We give a n = 16 memory patients a memory improvement treatment. How do they compare to the general population of memory patients who have a distribution of memory errors that is Normal,  = 60,  = 8? After the treatment they have an average score of = 55 memory errors.  = 0.05 One -tailed Step 4: Compute your test statistics = -2.5 H 0 :  Treatment >  pop > 60 H A :  Treatment <  pop < 60

49. Statistics for the Social Sciences “Generic” statistical test An example: One sample z-test Memory example experiment: We give a n = 16 memory patients a memory improvement treatment. How do they compare to the general population of memory patients who have a distribution of memory errors that is Normal,  = 60,  = 8? After the treatment they have an average score of = 55 memory errors.  = 0.05 One -tailed Step 5: Make a decision about your null hypothesis 5% Reject H 0 H 0 :  Treatment >  pop > 60 H A :  Treatment <  pop < 60

50. Statistics for the Social Sciences “Generic” statistical test An example: One sample z-test Memory example experiment: We give a n = 16 memory patients a memory improvement treatment. How do they compare to the general population of memory patients who have a distribution of memory errors that is Normal,  = 60,  = 8? After the treatment they have an average score of = 55 memory errors.  = 0.05 One -tailed Step 5: Make a decision about your null hypothesis - Reject H 0 - Support for our H A, the evidence suggests that the treatment decreases the number of memory errors H 0 :  Treatment >  pop > 60 H A :  Treatment <  pop < 60