1. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-1 Chapter 5 Some Important Discrete Probability Distributions Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft ® Excel 4 th Edition

2. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-2 Chapter Goals After completing this chapter, you should be able to:  Interpret the mean and standard deviation for a discrete probability distribution  Explain covariance and its application in finance  Use the binomial probability distribution to find probabilities  Describe when to apply the binomial distribution  Use the hypergeometric and Poisson discrete probability distributions to find probabilities

3. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-3 Introduction to Probability Distributions  Random Variable  Represents a possible numerical value from an uncertain event Random Variables Discrete Random Variable Continuous Random Variable Ch. 5Ch. 6

4. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-4 Discrete Random Variables  Can only assume a countable number of values Examples:  Roll a die twice Let X be the number of times 4 comes up (then X could be 0, 1, or 2 times)  Toss a coin 5 times. Let X be the number of heads (then X = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5)

5. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-5 Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Let X = # heads. T T Discrete Probability Distribution 4 possible outcomes T T H H HH Probability Distribution 0 1 2 X X Value Probability 0 1/4 =.25 1 2/4 =.50 2 1/4 =.25.50.25 Probability

6. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-6 Discrete Random Variable Summary Measures  Expected Value (or mean) of a discrete distribution (Weighted Average)  Example: Toss 2 coins, X = # of heads, compute expected value of X: E(X) = (0 x.25) + (1 x.50) + (2 x.25) = 1.0 X P(X) 0.25 1.50 2.25

7. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-7  Variance of a discrete random variable  Standard Deviation of a discrete random variable where: E(X) = Expected value of the discrete random variable X X i = the i th outcome of X P(X i ) = Probability of the i th occurrence of X Discrete Random Variable Summary Measures (continued)

8. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-8  Example: Toss 2 coins, X = # heads, compute standard deviation (recall E(X) = 1) Discrete Random Variable Summary Measures (continued) Possible number of heads = 0, 1, or 2

9. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-9 The Covariance  The covariance measures the strength of the linear relationship between two variables  The covariance: where:X = discrete variable X X i = the i th outcome of X Y = discrete variable Y Y i = the i th outcome of Y P(X i Y i ) = probability of occurrence of the condition affecting the i th outcome of X and the i th outcome of Y

10. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-10 Computing the Mean for Investment Returns Return per $1,000 for two types of investments P(X i Y i ) Economic condition Passive Fund X Aggressive Fund Y.2 Recession- $ 25 - $200.5 Stable Economy+ 50 + 60.3 Expanding Economy + 100 + 350 Investment E(X) = μ X = (-25)(.2) +(50)(.5) + (100)(.3) = 50 E(Y) = μ Y = (-200)(.2) +(60)(.5) + (350)(.3) = 95

11. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-11 Computing the Standard Deviation for Investment Returns P(X i Y i ) Economic condition Passive Fund X Aggressive Fund Y.2 Recession- $ 25 - $200.5 Stable Economy+ 50 + 60.3 Expanding Economy + 100 + 350 Investment

12. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-12 Computing the Covariance for Investment Returns P(X i Y i ) Economic condition Passive Fund X Aggressive Fund Y.2 Recession- $ 25 - $200.5 Stable Economy+ 50 + 60.3 Expanding Economy + 100 + 350 Investment

13. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-13 Interpreting the Results for Investment Returns  The aggressive fund has a higher expected return, but much more risk μ Y = 95 > μ X = 50 but σ Y = 193.21 > σ X = 43.30  The Covariance of 8250 indicates that the two investments are positively related and will vary in the same direction

14. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-14 The Sum of Two Random Variables  Expected Value of the sum of two random variables:  Variance of the sum of two random variables:  Standard deviation of the sum of two random variables:

15. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-15 Portfolio Expected Return and Portfolio Risk  Portfolio expected return (weighted average return):  Portfolio risk (weighted variability) Where w = portion of portfolio value in asset X (1 - w) = portion of portfolio value in asset Y

16. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-16 Portfolio Example Investment X: μ X = 50 σ X = 43.30 Investment Y: μ Y = 95 σ Y = 193.21 σ XY = 8250 Suppose 40% of the portfolio is in Investment X and 60% is in Investment Y: The portfolio return and portfolio variability are between the values for investments X and Y considered individually

17. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-17 Probability Distributions Continuous Probability Distributions Binomial Hypergeometric Poisson Probability Distributions Discrete Probability Distributions Normal Uniform Exponential Ch. 5Ch. 6

18. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-18 The Binomial Distribution Binomial Hypergeometric Poisson Probability Distributions Discrete Probability Distributions

19. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-19 Binomial Probability Distribution  A fixed number of observations, n  e.g., 15 tosses of a coin; ten light bulbs taken from a warehouse  Two mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive categories  e.g., head or tail in each toss of a coin; defective or not defective light bulb  Generally called “success” and “failure”  Probability of success is p, probability of failure is 1 – p  Constant probability for each observation  e.g., Probability of getting a tail is the same each time we toss the coin

20. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-20 Binomial Probability Distribution (continued)  Observations are independent  The outcome of one observation does not affect the outcome of the other  Two sampling methods  Infinite population without replacement  Finite population with replacement

21. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-21 Possible Binomial Distribution Settings  A manufacturing plant labels items as either defective or acceptable  A firm bidding for contracts will either get a contract or not  A marketing research firm receives survey responses of “yes I will buy” or “no I will not”  New job applicants either accept the offer or reject it

22. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-22 Rule of Combinations  The number of combinations of selecting X objects out of n objects is where: n! =n(n - 1)(n - 2)... (2)(1) X! = X(X - 1)(X - 2)... (2)(1) 0! = 1 (by definition)

23. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-23 P(X) = probability of X successes in n trials, with probability of success p on each trial X = number of ‘successes’ in sample, (X = 0, 1, 2,..., n) n = sample size (number of trials or observations) p = probability of “success” P(X) n X ! nX p(1-p) X n X ! ()!    Example: Flip a coin four times, let x = # heads: n = 4 p = 0.5 1 - p = (1 -.5) =.5 X = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 Binomial Distribution Formula

24. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-24 Example: Calculating a Binomial Probability What is the probability of one success in five observations if the probability of success is.1? X = 1, n = 5, and p =.1

25. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-25 n = 5 p = 0.1 n = 5 p = 0.5 Mean 0.2.4.6 012345 X P(X).2.4.6 012345 X P(X) 0 Binomial Distribution  The shape of the binomial distribution depends on the values of p and n  Here, n = 5 and p =.1  Here, n = 5 and p =.5

26. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-26 Binomial Distribution Characteristics  Mean  Variance and Standard Deviation Wheren = sample size p = probability of success (1 – p) = probability of failure

27. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-27 n = 5 p = 0.1 n = 5 p = 0.5 Mean 0.2.4.6 012345 X P(X).2.4.6 012345 X P(X) 0 Binomial Characteristics Examples

28. Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-28 Chapter Summary  Addressed the probability of a discrete random variable  Defined covariance and discussed its application in finance  Discussed the Binomial distribution