1. Daniel A. Rodríguez & Marc Howlett Carolina Transportation Program & Department of City and Regional Planning UNC- Chapel Hill November 19, 2008 Freight transportation and land uses –Trends and research opportunities

2. Outline of talk Freight context Top factors affecting industry and its location choices Empirical approaches to examining impacts

3. The context Trucking industry –Truckload, Less than truckload and Package express Rail –Class I & others Air Intermodal –Between TL and LTL –Rail/air and LTL

4. Industry segmentation (e.g. LTL vs. TL) Consolidation and concentration –In TL created very large (though not market-dominant) carriers –In rail created very large carriers with distinct spatial advantages National and multi-national carriers Increased competition productivity and employment, lower wages –Thin margins The context

5. Freight volumes steadily increasing Growth outpaces increases in system capacities Anecdotal localized costs vs. general benefits –“Urban land-use development patterns” is a critical component of potential constraints to goods movement (GAO, 2008) –Freight sprawl

6. Outline of talk Freight context Top factors affecting industry and its location choices Empirical approaches to examining impacts

7. “A lot of our supply chain design work was really developed and implemented in the 1980s and 1990s, when our capital spending was fairly high as a cost of capacity and oil was 10 bucks a barrel. I could say that the supply chain design is now upside down. The environment has changed. Transportation cost is going to create an even more distributed sourcing network than we would have had otherwise” - Keith Harrison, Proctor and Gamble, June 26, 2008 A changing environment

8. Top factors affecting industry and its impacts on metropolitan land 1.Congestion (transportation network accessibility) 2.Metropolitan land prices and land availability 3.Energy prices 4.Climate change and air quality Greenfield vs. brownfield issues

9. Top factors (cont.) 4.Localized burdens, regional / national benefits 5.Zoning and compatible uses 6.Proximity to links on value chain (e.g., freight gateways) - Airports are major centers of employment

10. Top factors (cont.) 7.Local economic development tool - Rickenbacker Intermodal Terminal, Columbus, Ohio - Carolina Gateway Project 8.Access to modal networks and intermodal facilities

11. Outline of talk Freight context Top factors affecting industry and its location choices Empirical approaches to examining impacts

12. Empirical analyses of freight and land impacts Provide direction on future behaviors & identify policy responses –Metropolitan level models of land use and transportation Microsimulation (Urbansim, ILUTE) Microeconomics (MUSSA, Metrosim) Spatial input output with discrete choices (PECAS, Tranus)

13. Empirical analyses of freight and land impacts Reduced form models –Did cell/parcel convert? Why? California urban futures Kockelman et al 2008 Woudsma et al. 2008 Rodriguez, et al 2008 –Relationship between past years’ freight activity to current patterns of freight-related land uses? –Relationship between past years’ freight activity changes to changes in the patterns of freight-related land uses?

14. Acknowledgements Support received from Dr. Steve Appold and Rich Kuzmyak Carolina Transportation Program (ctp.unc.edu)