1. Axford Conjecture Reconnection takes place at a rate determined by external boundary conditions (microphysics versus macrophysics) Examples: Dayside magnetopause reconnection Tail reconnection CME reconnection

2. B A

3. -33 kV33 kV ISM-MHD IMF Clock Angle 180 o Potential Weimer-Empirical Empirical ~ 1.1 x ISM-MHD

4. -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0510152025303540 Skill Scores December 98 Winglee/skill Ridley/skill Raeder/skill Weimer/skill Wiltberger/skill pass # GEM Metrics Grand Challenge (Hesse Compilations)

5. Raeder: 0.63 Weimer: 0.61 Ridley: 0.50 A Particularly Good Case models appear to match smoothed v y (100s) best

6. Hones substorm model

7. Forbes CME model