1. DER Sub-Group DISASTER & EMERGENCY RESPONSE DER Sub-Group Meeting FLOODS – 2004 Situation Overview

2. DER Sub-Group A developing emergency Main wave of monsoon flooding, started 8 July. Followed earlier floods in Haor Areas in April that destroyed 80% of Boro crop. Jamuna (Brahmaputra Basin in spate at same time as Surma/Meghna Rivers. Highest floods for many years (98/88) – overtopping many embankments, etc. Long duration (3 weeks) & rising more than once. Draining from North, & slowly receding in Centre. But now the standing water is STAGNATING…

3. DER Sub-Group

6. CURRENT RIVER FLOOD SITUATION

7. DER Sub-Group Current Flood Situation Water has receded in North revealing losses – but farmers face severe seed shortage. Water still high in Northeast. Rate of drainage depends on upstream situation in India & sea state in the Bay. Floods in Centre are expected to continue to recede slowly. Could take 2 weeks for total recession.

8. DER Sub-Group 5 DAY FORECAST

9. DER Sub-Group Weather Forecasts This week should be mostly dry, with thunderstorms on Thu-Sat & next Wed. More rain expected through to 12 Aug: –50-65 mm rain across Bangladesh, 02-12 Aug –65-85 mm rain in Northwest, 07-12 Aug –35-80 mm rain in Ganges & Brahmaputra Basins What happens in these wider catchment areas over Aug is critical. One or more further flood peaks are possible before end-Aug.

10. DER Sub-Group Worst Case Scenario: Brahmaputra / Jamuna & Ganges / Padma in spate at same time, bringing Meghna Basin into flood. Worst Case Scenario: Brahmaputra / Jamuna & Ganges / Padma in spate at same time, bringing Meghna Basin into flood.

11. DER Sub-Group What does it all mean ? VULNERABILILTY ANALYSIS

12. DER Sub-Group

15. Losses (Govt figures, 1 Aug 04) Affected Districts39Affected families6,511,988 Affected Upazila260Affected pop.32,899,082 Affected Unions2,341Reported deaths586 Affected area (km 2 )28,572Livestock deaths20,638 Shelters Opened5,037People sheltered1,570,640

16. DER Sub-Group Losses (Govt figures, 1 Aug 04) Crop damage (full)1,424,483Crop damage (partial) 1,200,384 Houses destroyed155,142Houses damaged3,140,673 Destroyed roads (km) 12,462Damaged roads41,223 Destroyed schools/religious 1,225Damaged schools/religious 23,188 Damaged bridges/culverts 5,313