1. DOCTORAL SEMINAR, SPRING SEMESTER 2007 Experimental Design & Analysis Contrasts, Trend Analysis and Effects Sizes February 6, 2007

2. Outline Contrasts Trend analysis Effects sizes

3. Contrasts When testing hypotheses and ANOVA indicates a significant effect, we seek more specific information about our data  Which group means are different?  Contrasts, or comparisons, let us examine differences Independent variable: brand of coffee Dependent variable: employee productivity (number of cream puffs produced) What are the relevant comparisons you would want to make?

4. Contrasts  One procedure for making individual comparisons among sample means is called the method of planned (independent) comparisons After overall F test (based on dividing MS A by MS S/A ) is found to be significant, follow up with a series of individual F tests, each with one degree of freedom for the numerator

5. Contrasts  Planned comparisons (also called pairwise comparisons or single-df tests) give more information about what is happening in the data  Complex comparisons allow testing average of 2 or more groups with another group  Unplanned contrasts limited to (k-1) tests of significance

6. Contrasts  Suppose we are interested in the effects of coffee on employees’ cream-puff production Starbucks, Peet’s, Maxwell House, Folgers, Sanka  There are a possible total of a(a – 1)/2 comparisons  In our coffee example: (5*4)/2 = 10 possible pairwise comparisons  Starbucks vs. each of the 4 other brands, Peet’s vs. each of the other 3 brands, Maxwell House vs. 2 other brands, Folgers vs. Sanka  But not all of these makes sense

7. Coffee Contrasts H 01 : X 1 – X 2 = 0 H 02 : X 1 – X 3 = 0 H 03 : X 1 – X 4 = 0 H 04 : X 1 – X 5 = 0 H 05 : X 2 – X 3 = 0 H 06 : X 2 – X 4 = 0 H 07 : X 2 – X 5 = 0 H 08 : X 3 – X 4 = 0 H 09 : X 3 – X 5 = 0 H 010 : X 4 – X 5 = 0 Coefficients for pairwise contrasts {1, -1} Ψ j = C 1 X 1 + C 2 X 2 + C 3 X 3 + …+ C k X k where Σ C j = 0 j=1 k

8. Coffee Contrasts A comparison of the Sanka (decaf) with the other brands Comparisons among the café brands and the store brands Comparisons between the café brands (Starbucks and Peet’s) Comparisons between the store brands (Maxwell House and Folgers) (+1)X 1 + (+1)X 2 + ( +1 )X 3 + ( +1 )X 4 + (-4)X 5 (+1)X 1 + (-1)X 2 + (0)X 3 + (0)X 4 + (0)X 5 (+1)X 1 + (+1)X 2 + (-1)X 3 + (-1)X 4 + (0)X 5 (0)X 1 + (0)X 2 + (+1)X 3 + (-1)X 4 + (0)X 5

9. Contrasts Convert contrast into sums of squares nΨ 2 SS = Σc 2 Sum of squared coefficients Difference between pair of means

10. Contrasts Evaluate means by creating F ratio F = MS Ψ MS S/A

11. Contrasts Contrasts that flow from the omnibus F test and are followed up with pairwise comparisons allow “continuity” When overall F test is not significant, t tests of theoretically important mean comparisons may be appropriate

12. Experimentwise Error Rate Type I error rate accumulates over a family of tests If each test is evaluated at α significance level, probability of avoiding Type I error is 1- α Probability of making no familywise errors with c tests = (1- α) c

13. Pairwise Corrections Bonferroni Sidak Dunnett Tukey’s HSD Fisher-Hayter Newman-Keuls Scheffe (for post-hoc error correction)

14. Trend Analysis If an experiment contains a quantitative IV then the shape of the function relating the levels of this quantitative IV to the DV is often of interest  Trend analysis can be used to test different aspects of the shape of the function relating the IV (advertising repetitions) and the DV (sales) Repetitions

15. Trend Analysis The linear component of trend is used to test whether there is an overall increase (or decrease) in the DV as the IV increases  A test of the linear component of trend is a test of whether this increase in sales is significant Repetitions

16. Trend Analysis If there were a perfectly linear relationship between repetitions and sales, then no components of trend other than the linear would be present The quadratic component of trend is used to test whether the slope increases (or decreases) as the independent variable increases Repetitions

17. Trend Analysis Trend analysis is computed as a set of orthogonal comparisons using a particular set of coefficients Each set of comparisons is tested for significance  Linear  Quadratic  Cubic

18. Trend Analysis Examples of theoretically motivated trend analysis  Effect of ad repetition on persuasion  Moderate schema incongruity  Law of diminishing returns  Losses loom larger than gains

19. Effect Sizes Effect size is a name given to a family of indices that measure the magnitude of a treatment effect  Unlike significance tests, effect size indices are independent of sample size  Measures are the common currency of meta-analyses Two ways to think about effect sizes  The standardized difference between means d = (m 1 – m 2 )/s Appropriate when comparing two groups  How much of variability can be attributed to treatments Effect size is ratio of variability explained to total variability or the SS Effect /SS Total Expressed as R 2 Appropriate for > 2 groups Check out effect-size calculators at http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/effect_size.htmlhttp://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/effect_size.html

20. Effect Sizes Effect sizes expressed as d and R 2 are descriptive statistics In the population  ω 2 = (σ Total 2 - σ Error 2 )/ σ Total 2 ω 2 = SS A – (a-1) MS S/A SS total + MS S/A ω 2 = (a - 1) (F -1) (a - 1) (F -1) + (an)

21. Effect Sizes Properties of ω 2 :  Varies between 0 and 1 (except in a fluke occurrence when F < 1, (negative ω 2 ) then treat it like zero)  Unlikely to get very high estimates of ω 2 because behavioral research has so much error variance  Cohen’s guidelines.01 = small.5 = moderate.8 = large

22. Effect Sizes 0.2 effect size corresponds to the difference between the heights of 15 and 16 year old girls in the US 0.5 effect size corresponds to the difference between the heights of 14 and 18 year old girls 0.8 effect size equates to the difference between the heights of 13 and 18 year old girls