1. Use of the Spatial Analogy in Climate Change Research Horváth, Levente – Gaál, Márta – Erdélyi, Éva Debrecen 2006

2. Analogue scenarios Observed or reconstructed information on climate that might serve as an analogue for future climatic conditions taken from: Other regions - spatial analogues Previous time periods - temporal analogues

3. Spatial analogues Present-day climate in another region that resembles the future climate anticipated in the study area

4. Spatial analogues Advantages: Testing system sensitivity Identifying key climate thresholds Disadvantages: Not related to greenhouse gas forcing Often physically implausible No appropriate analogues may be available

5. Materials and methods GCM scenarios American Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GFDL5564, GFDL2534 United Kingdom Meteorological Office UKHI, UKLO (equilibrium climate change experiment) UKTR (transient climate change experiment) IPCC CRU Global Climate Dataset consists of a multi-variate 0.5º latitude by 0.5º longitude resolution mean monthly (1960-1990) climatology for global land area (we use the temperature and the precipitation)

6. Materials and methods We used precipitation sums and temperature averages for periods of agricultural importance (Nov.-Feb., March-May, June-Aug., Sept.-Oct., 4-4 data) To compare these climatic datas to the the downscaled scenarios for Debrecen take these climate indices, as variables, were used to calculate Euclidean distances To interpret the results we used GIS methods, using the ArcGIS program

7. And now, a lot of maps

8. IPCC CRU dataset

12. Similarity of temperature for the BASE scenario

13. Similarity of precipitation for the BASE scenario

14. Similarity of temperature for the GFDL2534 scenario

15. Similarity of precipitation for the GFDL2534 scenario

16. Similarity of temperature for the GFDL5564 scenario

17. Similarity of precipitation for the GFDL5564 scenario

18. Similarity of temperature for the UKHI scenario

19. Similarity of precipitation for the UKHI scenario

20. Similarity of temperature for the UKLO scenario

21. Similarity of precipitation for the UKLO scenario

22. Similarity of temperature for the UKTR scenario

23. Similarity of precipitation for the UKTR scenario

24. And now, 2 videos BASE GFDL5564