1. Natural Climate Insurance for Pacific Northwest Salmon: Finding the Entangled Bank N. Mantua, R.C. Francis - UW CIG

2. Science and management are linked Science and management are linked (Holling 1993 Ecol. App.) 1st stream science System is predictable, science of parts –ex: the population Experimental, seeks explanation and prediction Implies we need certainty before taking action Command and Control Management Problem is perceived, a solution for its control is developed (e.g. low salmon production, build a hatchery) Reduce variability to make the system more predictable

3. 2nd stream science Unpredictable, science of integration –ex: the ecosystem Comparative, seeks understanding, accepts inherent unknowability and unpredictability The Golden Rule “Resource management should strive to retain critical types and ranges of variations in ecosystems” (Holling and Meffe 1996) Science and management are linked

4. Our contentions: Sustainable wild salmon populations and sustainable salmon fisheries are tightly linked. We have have developed conflicts between those who want to sustain wild salmon populations and those who want to sustain salmon fisheries – has become a “lose – lose” situation. Where does climate enter in?  treatment of environmental variability,  limitations on ecosystem predictability.

5. What to do: De-emphasize run-size prediction. Emphasize preseason and in-season monitoring of both the resource and its environment. Focus on strategies that minimize the importance of uncertain climate variability and change scenarios to increase the resilience of short and long-term planning decisions. Restore natural climate insurance that wild salmon populations must have evolved to survive and thrive in the face of past environmental change.