1. POSSIBLE FUTURE TRENDS IN COLD FORMED STEEL

2. OBJECTIVES ¥ PREDICTIONS -- RATHER A WISH LIST FOR DEVELOPMENTS ¥ HOPEFULLY TO STIMULATE DISCUSSION AND THINKING ¥ SOME PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEAR AND DISTANT FUTURE

3. “I THINK THERE IS A WORLD MARKET FOR MAYBE FIVE COMPUTERS,” THOMAS WATSON, CHAIRMAN OF IBM, 1943

4. “THERE IS NO REASON ANYONE WOULD WANT A COMPUTER IN THEIR HOME,” KEN OLSON, PRESIDENT, CHAIRMAN AND FOUNDER OF DIGITAL EQUIPMENT CORP., 1977

5. COLD-FORMED STEEL PREDICTIONS LESS SPECULATIVE ¥ STEEL HAS BEEN AROUND FOR A LONG TIME ¥ IRON AGE STARTED ABOUT 700 B. C. ¥ COLD-ROLLING STEEL GOES BACK ABOUT 120 YEARS ¥ APPLICATIONS IN PRINCIPLE SIMILAR TO THOSE 50 YEARS AGO

6. POSSIBLE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT TOPICS l MATERIALS l FORMING TECHNIQUES l CONNECTIONS l APPLICATIONS l CONSTRUCTION l ENGINEERING AND SPECIFICATIONS

7. MATERIALS TREND TOWARD HIGHER STRENGTH

8. MATERIALS LAMINATES TO IMPROVE : l STRENGTH l REDUCE WEIGHT l ACOUSTIC PERFORMANCE

9. MATERIALS l 30% INCREASE IN ELASTIC MODULUS TRANSVERSE TO ROLLING DIRECTION l ADVERSE EFFECTS IN LONGITUDINAL EFFECTS

10. MATERIALS l ADJUST YIELD TO ULTIMATE RATIOS (BETTER EARTHQUAKE RESISTANCE)

11. MATERIALS l BETTER CORROSION RESISTANCE l INCREASED USE OF STAINLESS STEELS l 12% Cr STEELS (NO NICKEL) BEING USED IN JAPAN IN HOUSING – SURFACE NOT SHINY, SOME RUST BUT AT MUCH SLOWER RATE

12. MATERIALS BETTER FIRE RESISTANT STEELS - LESS CREEP WHEN SUBJECTED TO HEAT

13. CF TECHNIQUES - HYBRID SECTIONS higher yield stress flange seamed and clinched lower yield stress web

14. CF TECHNIQUES - WEB STIFFENERS Embossed webs Cold worked web and flanges

15. CF TECHNIQUES EXPANDED USE OF AUTOMATIC FABRICATION LINES, SUCH AS FOR TRUSSES, WALL SUBASSEMBLIES

16. CF TECHNIQUES INCREASED USE OF ROLLING COMBINED WITH HIGH FREQUENCY WELDING IN ONE OPERATION

17. CF TECHNIQUES INCREASED USE CUTTING AND SEAMING ON PARTS OF SECTIONS TO FACILITATE CONNECTIONS (NON-PRISMATIC SECTIONS)

18. CF TECHNIQUES

19. CONNECTIONS

20. REPLACEMENT OF LIGHTER HOT- ROLLED STEEL MEMBERS WITH COLD ROLLED STEEL MEMBERS

21. APPLICATIONS - HOUSING l US ANNUAL CONSTRUCTION $415 BILLION. l ABOUT $165 BILLION, OF THIS IS IN THE RESIDENTIAL l POTENTIAL FOR STEEL IN THE ANNUAL 8.4 MILLION TONS. l NOTE: AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY USES 3.5 MILLION TONS.

22. APPLICATIONS - HOUSING RESIDENTIAL MARKET 485.000 2.350.000 1994Target 2002

23. APPLICATIONS - HOUSING 165.000 1.800.000 220.000 550.000 Steel framing, joists, trussesResidential steel roofing 1994Target 20021994Target 2002

24. APPLICATIONS - HOUSING MOTIVATIONS FOR USE OF STEEL l STABLE STEEL PRICES VS FLUCTUATING TIMBER PRICES l DWINDLING TIMBER SUPPLIES l CONCERN FOR ENVIRONMENT l HIGH STRENGTH TO WEIGHT RATIO l DURABILITY

25. APPLICATIONS - HOUSING 50 TREES 6 JUNKED CARS

26. APPLICATIONS - HOUSING

35. l An old idea whose time appears to have come l Steel alone or in combination with other materials - a suitable material for residential applications l Worldwide interest and development

36. CONSTRUCTION l WORKERS LESS SKILLFUL l MANAGERS MORE EDUCATED BUT NOT FROM THE TRADE l CONSTRUCTION MORE TECHNICAL BUT SIMPLER TO PUT TOGETHER

37. CONSTRUCTION l THREE DIMENTIONAL DRAWINGS AND VIRTUAL REALITY TO REPLACE DRAWINGS IN THE FIELD l MORE OF THE STRUCTURES TO BE PRODUCED IN FACTORIES AND ASSEMBLED IN THE FIELD

38. TOUCH MEMORY

39. l DRAWINGS OF ASSEMBLY ATTACHED TO THE MEMBER l LIMITATIONS OF USE ATTACHED TO THE STRUCTURES - FOR EXAMPLE: RACK FOR A CERTAIN CONFIGURATION OR EARTHQUAKE ZONE l MANY OTHER USES

40. ENGINEERING AND SPECIFICATIONS l EFFORTS TO IMPROVE SPECS l SIMPLER APPLICATIONS SUCH AS RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS l COMPLEX HIGHLY OPTIMIZED APPLICATIONS l UNIFICATION OF HR AND CR SPECS

41. ENGINEERING AND SPECIFICATIONS l SIMPLER APPLICATIONS SUCH AS RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS l SIMPLER RULES FOR DESIGN AND MEMBER SELECTION l STANDARDIZED MEMBERS l SIMPLIFIED SPECIFICATIONS

42. ENGINEERING AND SPECIFICATIONS l COMPLEX SHAPES REQUIRE COMPLEX ENGINEERING ANALYSIS AND DESIGN l USE OF FINITE ELEMENT AND OTHER TYPES OF COMPUTER ANALYSIS WILL INCREASE GREATLY AND WILL BE ACCEPTED WIDELY

43. ENGINEERING AND SPECIFICATIONS l SPECS NEED TO ACCEPT COMPUTER ANALYSIS l TO CALCULATE CRITICAL STRESSES l TO CALCULATE ULTIMATE LOADS l SPECS TO REFLECT l FABRICATION TOLERANCES, l IMPERFECTIONS, l MATERIAL PROPERTIES, RESIDUAL STRESSES l COMPUTER PROGRAM ACCEPTANCE GUIDELINES NEEDED

44. PRESENT EFFECTIVE SECTION APPROACH

45. PROPOSED DIRECT STRENGTH APPROACH

46. KEY TO THE FUTURE l POSSIBILITIES LIMITED ONLY BY OUR IMAGINATION l DEVELOPMENTS WILL NOT HAPPEN WITHOUT ENGINEERING l INDUSTRY MUST PROVIDE LONGER TERM VISION l RESEARCHERS MUST WORK WITH THE INDUSTRY

47. CONCLUSIONS l DWINDLING TIMBER SUPPLIES l RECYCLABLE ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY MATERIAL l POSSIBILITIES FOR OPTIMIZATION l ROLLNG THICKER SHEETS - REPLACE MORE HOT- ROLLED APPLICATIONS l INCLUDE COMPUTER SOLUTIONS IN SPECS