1. 1 Socio Economic Research on Fusion (SERF) under EFDA “Possible Portuguese contributions to the Fusion Socio-Economics Programme” Paulo Ferrão

2. 2 Outline The 1996 Fusion Programme Evaluation Board (FPEB) The Ad-Hoc Group on Socio-Economics An assessment of the research performed A new research agenda Possible Portuguese contributions to the Fusion Socio-Economics Programme

3. 3 FPEB Deliverable

4. 4 FPEB - Recommendations The Board strongly recommended undertaking a renewed effort in the involvement of both laboratories and industry. A successful fusion program must lead to an energy source which is both economically and socially acceptable. Deeper knowledge on Fusion can be woven into the fabric of society is needed, in order for the political process to face difficult decisions in a rational manner. FEPB

5. 5 FPEB - Recommendations The Board considered that there was a need to complement the existing knowledge bases with an additional track, that of socio-economic research on fusion (SERF). Such research calls for a multi-disciplinary approach, bringing together researchers in the physical sciences, engineering and economic, social and environmental sciences. FEPB

6. 6 FPEB - Recommendations A substantial effort should be devoted to socioeconomic research on fusion. It needs to be multidisciplinary and deal with issues such as: Economics of fusion, direct and externalities public awareness, democratic governance of complex systems, value change FEPB

7. 7 Towards a New Research Agenda The EFDA (European Fusion Development Agreement) Steering Committee decided on May, 29 th, 2007, to establish an Ad-Hoc Group on Socio-Economics, whose mission had the following terms of Reference (ToR): Conduct an assessment of the achievements of the SERF against the objectives set by the FPEB in 1996; Propose revised overall longer-term objectives for SERF in the present context (ITER construction decided, climate change problem widely recognized) ; Propose guidelines for the activities to be pursued within the EFDA Work programme during FP7. FEPB

8. 8 EFDA Ad-Hoc Group on Socio-Economics - Paulo Ferrão (IST), Chairman - Alejandro Zurita (CEC-Fusion directorate), Secretary - M. Quang Tran (CRPP) - M.R. Virdis (CEC-Energy directorate) - Gaetano Borrelli (ENEA) - C.Eherer (EFDA CSU RO for socio-economics) FEPB

9. 9 SERF Socio-Economic Research on Fusion AN ASSESSMENT OF THE RESEARCH PERFORMED

10. 10 An assessment of the research performed SERF 1,2,3 Fusion as part of the Energy System Fusion externalities Public acceptance of fusion Governance of complex systems

11. 11 Fusion as a part of the Energy System The issue of whether, and under what conditions fusion could capture a share of the European energy market was examined by including fusion into the widely used energy models: –MARKAL, and later the TIMES, –which simulates decisions to invest in and utilise energy technologies. SERF 1, 2,3 Assessment

12. 12 Fusion as a part of the Energy System The MARKAL studies showed that the market role of fusion in this century would strongly depend on the implementation of pollution reduction policies. Introducing CO 2 – stabilisation targets into the calculations in the form of total emission budgets for the time period up to 2100, fusion starts entering the picture for target CO 2 concentrations below 650 - 550 ppm. SERF 1, 2,3 Assessment

13. 13 Fusion as a part of the Energy System Can Fusion as an electricity provider be flexible? It was also found that the optimum way to operate at reduced electrical output is to reduce the fusion power of the plant by reducing the fuel density, rather than its temperature. It is envisaged that a reduction in net electrical power output by a factor of two is plausible. SERF 1, 2,3 Assessment

14. 14 Fusion externalities The external costs for fusion have been estimated to be approximately the same as for renewables (e.g. photovoltaics) and lower than fossil fuel and nuclear fission technologies. these estimates were very preliminary and need to be further assessed and more detailed in order to get a more comparable estimate. SERF 1, 2,3 Assessment

15. 15 Fusion externalities The comparison of a technology available not before 2050 and current technologies is of course strongly biased. Progress in various competing technologies like coal and fission power plants can be envisioned that might reduce their external costs considerably. Future work is needed to bring this comparison to a more equal basis. This future work needs to consider both changes in the technologies and the underlying source terms and in the affected environment SERF 1, 2,3 Assessment

16. 16 Public acceptance of Fusion Failure to successfully implement risk communication programs results often from the public distrust shown towards policy-makers, civil authorities and industrial plant managers due to credibility problems. Personal experience of risk has been more and more replaced by information about risks and individual control over risk by institutional risk management. SERF 1, 2,3 Assessment

17. 17 Public acceptance of Fusion There is a generally favourable view of fusion as part of the future energy system, although there are still apparent deficiencies in the information that is reaching the public. There is nonetheless an important message for the fusion programme, that there remains work to be done on providing clear and compelling information to the public. SERF 1, 2,3 Assessment

18. 18 Fusion as a complex system “Large Technical Systems”, are characterized by their increased complexity: a growing number of components, increasing variations in interrelations, overlapping subsystems, causation becoming less and less clear. SERF 1, 2,3 Assessment

19. 19 Governance of complex systems There is an indisputable link between comprehensibility and democracy. The democratic form of government rests on two assumptions: –that the average citizen can make up his own mind on questions that concern him and his future, –and that he can foresee the consequences of his actions sufficiently well to take responsibility for them. SERF 1, 2,3 Assessment

20. 20 Governance of complex systems It is possible that the complications of the industrialized and technified society are so great, that democratic participation in the public decision processes in the long run must degenerate to an empty formality of either assent to, or protest against, incomprehensible alternatives von Wright (1988) SERF 1, 2,3 Assessment

21. 21 Governance of complex systems Understanding “Complex System” requires a new form of knowledge which is not only technical, but where “Technical” and “Social” cannot be strictly separated. We are speaking of the need of eventually a new science paradigm capable of dealing with complex socio- technical systems, in which “...rather than the tell-tale inventor, the system-builder becomes the hero of the history”. The need to enrol other actors and interests to system, and the ability to control social as well as technical links throughout the system are distinctive in this respect. SERF 1, 2,3 Assessment

22. 22 SERF Socio-Economic Research on Fusion A new research agenda

23. 23 A New Research Agenda 1.A holistic view for a new scientific framework on engineering systems and risk governance 2.The Economics of Fusion, and the promotion of the interaction with industry and Entrepreneurship 3.Promoting public understanding of fusion and education of youngsters 4.Create an observatory for the socio-economics of fusion: data collection, analysis and divulgation

24. 24 SERF Possible Portuguese contributions to the Fusion Socio-Economics Programme

25. 25 A holistic view for a new scientific framework on engineering systems and risk governance To address these new problems from a fundamental and principled way, we need to support the development of new Science and Methods that can address the problems inherent to large, complex systems. This new science may be derived under the emerging concept of ENGINEERING SYSTEMS, which focuses on customers’ needs throughout the life cycle of design, testing, manufacturing, installation, operation, monitoring and future planning. –Typically an interdisciplinary approach, including quantitative as well as qualitative perspectives, is needed to develop a deep understanding of the system under study. A new research agenda

26. 26 A holistic view for a new scientific framework on engineering systems and risk governance “Engineering Systems” integrates technology, policy and management in physical and social dimensions. –While it represents an evolution of ideas over years, namely as developed at MIT, and now in the MIT-Portugal program, it now defines a new vision of engineering –Provides greater value to society A new research agenda - PT

27. 27 A holistic view for a new scientific framework on engineering systems and risk governance Engineering Systems Role Role is to provide socially valuable results over life of system –Recognizes that “requirements” change –Complete analysis should consider social processes that define, implement and use the system, as they evolve over time –Best solutions will integrate technical and social components and their evolution –Thus providing greater expected value A new research agenda

28. 28 A holistic view for a new scientific framework on engineering systems and risk governance A Vision for the Fusion System 1.First, an “image” of fusion technology needs to be created. The image includes the supposed benefits of fusion compared to alternatives, across different scenarios. 2.Next, a list of relevant appraisal criteria for sustainability should be derived. Ideally, this should involve stakeholders. 3.Thirdly, using this list of criteria, (political) sensitivities could be explored in a systematic way across scenarios. Again, ideally, this exploration should be performed in close interaction with stakeholders. A new research agenda

29. 29 The Economics of Fusion, and the promotion of the interaction with industry and Entrepreneurship Economics of Fusion The direct effect of the purchase and employment, which can be evaluated with input–output analysis. Technology spin-off resulting from the improvement of technical capability of the industry stimulated by the development of new knowledge, and this involves research on markets and on entrepreneurship. Commercial value of Fusion Energy; and this involves the development of energy models and energy scenarios, as those developed under the EFDA-TIMES program. A new research agenda

30. 30 The Economics of Fusion, and the promotion of the interaction with industry and Entrepreneurship Economic IO Considering the a ij 's as fixed relationships between a sector's output and its inputs, and constitute the technical coefficients matrix, A (A ij ). There is an explicit definition of a linear relationship between input and output: X i = A ij X j + Y i The output required from each sector to satisfy an increase in demand Y, is quantified by: X = (I – A) -1. Y where (I – A) -1 is commonly referred to as the Leontief Inverse. A new research agenda - PT

31. 31 The Economics of Fusion, and the promotion of the interaction with industry and Entrepreneurship Hybrid EIO-LCA A new research agenda - PT

32. 32 The Economics of Fusion, and the promotion of the interaction with industry and Entrepreneurship Energy models Modeling of the Portuguese Energy System in TIMES Contributing to Energy Technologies Benchmarking A new research agenda - PT

33. 33 The Economics of Fusion, and the promotion of the interaction with industry and Entrepreneurship Fusion driven Entrepreneurship Short term projects - 1 1.Objectives: to determine the impact of ITER in technology based start-ups, trying to discern: a)the value added to the high tech entrepreneur of having worked at ITER, compared with other entrepreneurs of other technology based start-ups b)the value added to society of ITER start-ups, compared with other start-ups, as measured by the impact of (new) products or processes introduced 2.Objectives: to understand technology diffusion processes and the gap between public investment and technology commercialization by start-ups springing from ITER, namely by: a)relating the number of start-ups with the different technology phases of ITER b)relating the type of start-up with the knowledge base developed at ITER A new research agenda - PT

34. 34 3.Objectives: to understand the formation of networks and its impact on ITER based start-ups, namely: a)to what extent does start-up activity reflect the joint collaboration on which ITER is based Activities required: to set up a longitudinal database following ITER-inspired start-ups with detailed information about founders and human resources, products and market performance over time, as well as detailing the links (for instance, joint funding of research, hiring of former ITER researchers) that each start-ups maintains with ITER, and when and why has that link been established A new research agenda - PT The Economics of Fusion, and the promotion of the interaction with industry and Entrepreneurship Fusion driven Entrepreneurship Short term projects - 2

35. 35 1.Objective: to understand the influence of fusion based electricity in green energy start-ups 2.Objective: to understand the influence of fusion based electricity power in start-ups for delivering new energy sources A new research agenda - PT The Economics of Fusion, and the promotion of the interaction with industry and Entrepreneurship Fusion driven Entrepreneurship Long term projects

36. 36 The Economics of Fusion, and the promotion of the interaction with industry: Entrepreneurship on action A new research agenda - PT “The experience of VECTORe Programme at IN+/IST on technology commercialization”

37. 37 Promoting public understanding of fusion and education of youngsters Unless more effective action is taken, Europe’s longer term capacity to innovate, and the quality of its research will decline. Furthermore, among the population in general, the acquisition of skills that are becoming essential in all walks of life, in a society increasingly dependent on the use of knowledge, is also under increasing threat. This is particularly relevant for Fusion, as it is a long term project and, consequently its successes will critically depend on the ability that we may have now to attract the youngsters to science awareness and practice. Rocard, M., Csermely, P., Jorde D., Lenzen D., Walberg-Henriksson H., Hemmo V. (2007) “ Science Education now: a renewed pedagogy for the future of Europe ”. European Commission.

38. 38 Promoting public understanding of fusion and education of youngsters “The experience of IN+/IST on fostering the public understanding of science”

39. 39 Promoting public understanding of fusion and education of youngsters Responsibility in politics: the need to improve societal, industrial and political values for fusion Promote the scientific and political ability to deal with scientific uncertainty and ignorance to reduce mistrust from society, particularly on new technological developments Understand the dilemmas related with uncertainty that arise from nuclear fusion research and its further implementation From this work there could be a theoretically input to understand changes or welcome adaptations needed on policy to deal with environmental and social problems that per se are uncertain. A new research agenda - PT

40. 40 Launching and Observatory for the socio-economics of fusion: the Vision Data collection, analysis and divulgation across 5 main topics: A.Identification of complex engineering systems and risk governance issues, requiring the integration of technology, policy and management B.Monitoring the interaction with industry, by identifying projects and issues for further exploration C.Monitoring the creation of new technology-based firms and fostering entrepreneurship across the full value chain of fusion technology D.Monitoring the education of youngsters regarding fusion science and promoting new project-oriented actions in schools E.Monitoring and promoting actions for the public understanding of fusion (exhibitions; tours; TV programs; seminars, publications)

41. 41 Create an observatory for the socio-economics of fusion: data collection, analysis and divulgation