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Carbon Sinks and Land Use Competition EUFASOM Uwe A. Schneider Dagmar Schwab INSEA Colleagues.

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Presentation on theme: "Carbon Sinks and Land Use Competition EUFASOM Uwe A. Schneider Dagmar Schwab INSEA Colleagues."— Presentation transcript:

1 Carbon Sinks and Land Use Competition EUFASOM Uwe A. Schneider Dagmar Schwab INSEA Colleagues

2 Food Non-Food Carbon Sinks Land use competition

3 Model Structure Resources Land Use Technologies Processing Technologies ProductsMarkets Inputs Limits Supply Functions Limits Demand Functions, Trade Limits Environmental Impacts

4 Processing Markets Feed mixing Labor Pasture Other Inputs Cropland Water Livestock production Forestry, Nature, Crop production Export Domestic demand Import Model Structure Forest Inventory

5 Objective Function Demand Supply Price Quantity P* Q* Resource Rents Consumer Surplus

6 Surplus Maximization Implicit Supply and Demand Forest InventoryLand Supply Water Supply Labor Supply Animal Supply National Inputs Import Supply Processing Demand Feed Demand Domestic Demand Export Demand CS PS

7 Spatial Resolution Soil texture Stone content Altitude levels Slopes Soil state Political regions Ownership (forests) Farm types Farm size Many crop and tree species Tillage, planting irrigation, fertilization harvest regime

8 EUFASOM Dynamics 5 (to 20) year time steps State of forests (and soil organic matter) Technical progress Demand & industry growth Resource and global change Policy scenarios

9 State of the Art Enormous flexibility (resolve acc. needs) Index notation –millions of data, variables, and equations with sparse programming statements –ensures consistency (model development) Extensive generic equation checks (30 checks per equation) Systematic solution analysis (symptom to cause)

10 Positive Variables RESOURCE_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE) FOREST_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,AGE,FORTECH) PEREN_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,CROPTECH) CROP_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,CROPTECH) LIVE_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,LIVETECH) FEED_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,PRODUCT,FEEDTECH) ECO_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,ECOTECH) PROCESS_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PROCTECH) LUC_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE) DEMAND_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT) SUPPLY_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT) TRADE_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,REGION,PRODUCT)

11 Equations OBJECTIVE_EQU RESOURCEBAL_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE) RESOURCEMAX_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE) SOILSTATE_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE) FORINVENT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,AGE,FORTECH) LUC_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE) LUCLIMIT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE) STOCK_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,STOCK) EMIT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SUBSTANCE) PRODUCTBAL_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT) MINFEED_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,NUTRIENT) MAXFEED_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,NUTRIENT)

12 Data FOREST_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,ALLTECH,ALLITEM) PEREN_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,ALLTECH,ALLITEM) CROP_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,ALLTECH,ALLITEM) ECO_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,ALLTECH,ALLITEM) LIVE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,ALLTECH,ALLITEM) FEED_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLTECH,ALLITEM) PROCESS_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLTECH,ALLITEM) PRODUCT_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM) MARKET_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLITEM,SDTYPE,SDITEM) TRADE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM) RESOURCE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLRESOURCE,SDITEM) STOCK_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM) LUC_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,ALLCHANGE,ALLITEM)

13 Pre-Solution Analysis Identifies structural errors –Missing data –Illegal data –Wrong signs More than 30 general variable and equation checks

14 Crop Technology Data Base RegionAltitudSoilFarmRotationWaterTillageFertilzResidueItemUnitValue Poland0-300SandES3W-W-SIrrigConv.BasicBasicWheatdt/ha/y50 Poland0-300SandES3W-W-SIrrigConv.BasicBasicS-Beatdt/ha/y200 Poland0-300SandES3W-W-SIrrigConv.BasicBasicStrawdt/ha/y50 Poland0-300SandES3W-W-SIrrigConv.BasicBasicLaborhr/ha/y30 Poland0-300SandES3W-W-SIrrigConv.BasicBasicLandha/ha/y1 Poland0-300SandES3W-W-SIrrigConv.BasicBasicDiesell/ha/y40 Poland0-300SandES3W-W-SIrrigConv.BasicBasicCostsEur/ha/y300 Poland0-300SandES3W-W-SIrrigConv.BasicBasicSoil-Ckg/ha/y50 Poland0-300SandES3W-W-SIrrigConv.BasicBasicErosionkg/ha/y15 Poland0-300SandES3W-W-SIrrigConv.BasicBasicNO3-Lkg/ha/y20

15 Mitigation Potentials 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 0100200300400500600700800 Carbon price (Euro/tce) Mitigation (mmtce) Technical Potential Competitive Potential

16 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 020406080100 Billion Euros Carbon Equivalent (CE) Prices in Euros per Ton Changes in Welfare Accounts Gross Ag-Producer Surplus Emission Payments Net Ag-Producer Surplus Ag-Consumer Surplus

17 GHG Mitigation and Markets 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 050100150200250300 Fisher index Carbon price (Euro/tce) Crop prices Livestock prices Livestock production Crop production Net exports

18 Afforestation Potentials 0 100 200 300 400 500 050100150200250300 Carbon price (Euro/tce) Emission reduction (mmtce) Technical Potential Economic Potential Competitive Economic Potential

19 Forest Policy: Crop Emissions Emissions (kg C/ha) Carbon price (Euro/tce) -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 050100150200250300 Nitrogen Fertilizer Ag-Soil Carbon Irrigation Use Fossil Fuel Use

20 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Carbon Price in Euro/mtce Total Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emission Abatement in mmtce Competitive Economic Potential Simult. Technical Potential Independent Geographic Potential Independent Technical Potential

21 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Carbon Price in Euro/mtce Total Agricultural and Forest Greenhouse Gas Emission Abatement in mmtce Crop Area Fixed Crop Area and Prices Fixed Crop Area and Prices Endogenous Prices Fixed

22 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 20 40 60 80 100 Energy Crops (million hectares) Carbon tax on energy (Euro/ton of carbon) 2010 Capacity 2030 Capacity 2050 Capacity Unrestricted Capacity Power Plant Biomass Supply

23 Land Allocation Carbon Tax Pasture Traditional Crops Biomass for Power Plants Afforestation

24 Outlook Analysis of major FASOM results Downscaling (EFEM, AROPAJ) Upscaling (GAINS, MESSAGE)

25 Thanks

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