1. Identifying new migrant populations in UK cities David Owen and Audrey Lenoël

2. Background and aims of paper International migration is now a major influence on population change in the UK. The population composition of particular localities is changing substantially due to rapid economic or asylum migration. Local authorities and economic development agencies (amongst others) need up-to-date information on the ‘new incomer’ populations in order to plan the provision of services and ensure their delivery reflects the composition of the population. However, existing official statistics are poor at identifying short-term population change and change in the composition of the population: an “information vacuum”. This paper presents some findings from local case studies in: (1)Birmingham, West Midlands - estimating emerging refugee populations; and (2) Lincolnshire - estimating the new migrant workforce

3. Components of UK population change, 1991-2001

4. Net immigration to the UK by world region, 1995-2004

5. Existing data base Census - migrants, ethnic group, country of birth; BUT pre 2004 expansion of EU LFS and APS - demographic characteristics and socio- economic variables These sources do NOT record information on immigration status Statistics produced by Home Office National Asylum Support Service (NASS) Mid Year Estimates of population ONS Vital Statistics

6. CASE STUDY 1: Asylum seekers in the West Midlands by nationality (from WMCARS)

7. NASS placements of asylum seekers in Birmingham Concentrated in areas of: relative deprivation high percentages of population from ethnic minorities

8. Potential data sources on asylum seekers and ethnic minorities from service providers Housing providers - social housing providers collect information on their tenancies; limited local authority information Applications for Housing Benefit and Council Tax benefit Local Education Authorities - Pupil Level Annual Schools’ Census (PLASC) Jobcentre Plus and the Department for Work and Pensions National Health Service - Hospital Episode Statistics; introduction of ethnic monitoring to GP registrations

9. Estimates of refugees in the West Midlands (from WMCARS) NASS clients dispersed to the region and granted leave to remain = 18,780 Home Office estimates that 25% of all refugees from other regions enter the West Midlands, and a tiny percentage leave = 39,073 Adjustment to include dependants in the above at 15% of total = 8,678 Estimates of refugees in the UK before the dispersal policy began who are in the West Midlands = 10,000 to 15,000 Accuracy of estimates depends on validity of assumptions - the smaller the geographical area, the less valid assumptions are likely to be

10. CASE STUDY 2: Economic migrants in Lincolnshire Rural area - substantial number of low skill jobs in agriculture and food processing, unattractive to local residents Key data sources: (1) National Insurance numbers (NINOs) - but confidentiality constraints mean limited disaggregation available at local level (2) Worker Registration Scheme (WRS) for A8 nationals - disaggregated by country of origin, industry, occupation, postcode district

11. National Insurance registrations by country of origin

12. A8 registrations by industry in Lincolnshire, 2004/5

13. Conclusions Main sources of statistical data are not keeping pace with the changing nature of international migration streams to the UK and their impacts on local areas Administrative data can provide some useful insights Available data provide only a partial picture of the new migrant population - especially at local level There is a need for more detailed, timely and flexible information